Why did Germany lose WW2?

[BritinBritain]

No offense but he can say exactly the same thing about you two, can you point to a ship, soldier, tank or aircraft that was definately saved or sunk by ULTRA?

The difference is, Trooper and I fully understand the importance of reliable intelligence.

The answer is that you can't because the value of ULTRA was indeterminant, ULTRA gave the Allies an insight into what the Germans were doing but a soldier, tank, plane or ship still had to successfully destroy the opposition and as we have seen with operation Luttich ULTRA's information was incredibly effective however we have also seen with Operation Mercury that knowing the oppositions plans was not enough to guarantee success.

Regarding Operation Luttich, The Germans achieved temporary surprise, as the Ultra documents had arrived at U.S. First Army Headquarters too late to alert the troops to the immediate assault. That cannot be blamed on ULTRA.

It's also been stated that once ULTRA has furnished the information, it's up to the planners what to do with it.

Now this doesn't mean that ULTRA wasn't useful or that it didn't save lives and we all know that it sped up the war but it wasn't decisive in winning the war.

Ah now you are agreeing that ULTRA saved lives and that it sped up the war. FINALLY. If ULTRA wasn't decisive it wouldn't have sped up the war would it? Of course ULTRA alone didn't win the war on its own, but it certainly helped the fighting forces that did win the war.

Here is an interesting thought, ULTRA was not released to the world until sometime around 1974 yet the history of the Second World War has not had to be rewritten simply because Ultra was unveiled, but it has been rethought.

Parts of ULTRA and Enigma are still classified top secret today, the full story will never be released.

Not always hard facts but lots of circumstantial evidence. Ultra did save lives, and many.

Don't waste your time with him, he only reads what he wants to read that suits his argument.

.

 

[Der Alte]

No offense but he can say exactly the same thing about you two, can you point to a ship, soldier, tank or aircraft that was definately saved or sunk by ULTRA?

The answer is that you can't because the value of ULTRA was indeterminant, ULTRA gave the Allies an insight into what the Germans were doing but a soldier, tank, plane or ship still had to successfully destroy the opposition and as we have seen with operation Luttich ULTRA's information was incredibly effective however we have also seen with Operation Mercury that knowing the oppositions plans was not enough to guarantee success.

Now this doesn't mean that ULTRA wasn't useful or that it didn't save lives and we all know that it sped up the war but it wasn't decisive in winning the war.

The German auxiliary cruiser Atlantis ?

On October 18, Atlantis was ordered to rendezvous with the submarine U-68 800 km (500 mi) south of St. Helena and refuel her, then to refuel U-126 at a location north of Ascension Island. Atlantis rendezvoused with U-68 on 13 November, and on 21 or 22 November with U-126. The OKM signal instruction sent to U-126 ordering this rendezvous was intercepted and deciphered by the Allied Enigma code breakers at Bletchley Park and was passed on to the Admiralty, which in turn despatched the heavy cruiser HMS Devonshire to the rendezvous area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_auxiliary_cruiser_Atlantis

U-217 ?

The first sinking of a U-boat in a purely offensive action by the United States took place in June 1943. The carrier Bogue with her escorts as task group 21.12 got underway from Argentia, Newfoundland on the 30th of May. Upon reaching her patrol station in the area 35N, 45W on 1 June, she was in support of westbound Convoy GUS-7A, then rounding the southern end of the "Trutz" line that Doenitz had set up. Captain Short, the Commanding Officer of Bogue and Task Group Commander, had been advised of the existence of Group Trutz by COMINCH in Washington, DC.

The existence of Group Trutz and its location was known through Ultra. The general position and number of U-boats ordered to head for it were also known from message traffic read on 24 May. On that day, traffic was being read currently. Thus the first sinking of a U- boat directly attributable to Ultra information by the United States Navy was about to take place.

The weather was excellent and Bogue aircraft were sweeping a 120- mile wide path in hopes of hitting the German U-boat line. On 1 June Doenitz shifted the Trutz line south to be in position to attack Convoy GUS-7A. Captain Short was apparently slightly south of the line and this shift put the southern end of the line right in his path. Due to a gap in reading German traffic between 1 and 4 June, the information as to Doenitz's repositioning of the line was not known at the time it happened. Washington informed Captain Short of the shift on the 4th of June just as his Avengers sighted and attacked three U-boats. None of these were sunk and it was not until the following day that U-217 was sunk in a coordinated attack by a Wildcat and an Avenger, both from the carrier Bogue. U-217 was the southern most U-boat of the Trutz Group. No more were located during the next two days.

U-118 ?

On 5 June Doenitz ordered the Trutz patrol line canceled and the submarines were sent north to a refueling rendezvous.
Steaming back and forth in her area of operation searching for more targets, one of Bogue's Avengers spotted U-758 on the surface. U-758 was attacked several times but fought back fiercely. While severely damaged, she was never sunk. The distress message sent by U-758 became very important, in terms of Ultra, as it revealed a refueling rendezvous that was not previously known. This badly upset German U-boat Command's rather intricate plans for refueling and U-boat operations. This intricate plan for transfers of fuel from boats returning from and proceeding to patrol areas involved U-758 bound for the Trinidad area and two refuelers. One of these refuelers, U-118, was subsequently sunk by Bogue aircraft. U-118 and another refueler, who was to have given extra fuel to U- 118, were ordered to U-758's rescue. As a result of this move, valuable intelligence was made available. Up to this time none of the messages involving U-118's position had been decrypted but the message ordering them to the rescue gave the position for which they were to look for U- 758. Since the two refuelers had trouble finding U-758, there were several transmissions from the three U-boats on 9 and 10 June. None of these messages were read until 13 June. However, their transmissions provided DF evidence of U-boat activity.

U-487 ?

During the summer of 1943, 11 Monsun boats left France for the Far East. By the end of August, five had been sunk in mid-Atlantic and one had been forced to return to port. This disaster for the Germans was largely attributable to the sinking of U-487, a 1600-ton refueler, on 13 July. This was the U-boat that was to have refueled the Monsun boats.

The rendezvous area had four US Navy carriers in the vicinity. They were Core, Santee, Bogue, and Card. On the afternoon of 13 July, one of Core's Wildcat-Avenger teams spotted U-487 on the surface. The crew was puling a floating bale of cotton aboard and were caught totally by surprise. They reacted quickly, however, and shot down the Wildcat. Three other aircraft arrived immediately on the scene and the U-487 was bombed and sunk quickly.

Ultra played a role in this sinking to the extent that bits and pieces of information were put together. First, through Ultra it was known that the area SSW of the Azores was a favorite refueling area. Second, it was known that several U-boats were being sent out from France and thought to be headed for the Far East. Third, it was known that U-487, which was a known U-tanker, had been given instructions to head for that general area. Thus, even though traffic was not at the time being read currently, past Ultra information was instrumental in revealing that a large refueling operation was about to take place.

U-117 ?

The USS Card, after having taken on fuel in Bermuda and having joined convoy UGS-13 on 1 August, departed the convoy the following day on hunter-killer operations. On the 3rd of August, aircraft from that carrier attacked U-66 which was homeward bound after a long patrol. During the battle the commanding officer of the U-boat was badly wounded. After radioing for assistance that night, the U-boat was ordered by Doenitz to rendezvous with U-117, a 1600-ton refueler. On the morning of 7 August an Avenger from the USS Card sighted the two submarines steaming together about 500 yards apart. The Avenger made one attack and then remained in the area until three more aircraft arrived. U-66 submerged and got away but U-117's afterdeck was severely damaged. Unable to submerge, she was quickly sunk by two Avengers. U-117 was the only U-tanker available during the month of August. The sinking of this U-boat was, therefore, a devastating blow to the refueling system. The necessary rearranging of patrols and refuelings severely curtailed U-boat operations.

Ultra played an instrumental role in this decisive sinking of a U- tanker. In a 30 July message read by OP-20G on 1 August, U-117 had been ordered to stand by in an area within 100 miles of 38-50N, 37-20W. In a 1 August message, read on that same day, the U-tanker was given a more precise position near 37-57N, 38-30W. In another message also on 1 August and also decrypted by OP-20G on the same day, U-117 was ordered to provision U-66 at that position on or after 3 August and after completion to wait in that area. This particular rendezvous was never affected because U-66 could not find the U-tanker. A new rendezvous was ordered by U-boat Command at 38-15N, 38-14W. This information was in message traffic on 6 August which was not decrypted by OP-20G until 14 August. However, based on the previous information the rendezvous area was known well enough for search aircraft to begin looking.

As can be seen, Ultra information was not always perfect and the daily changing Triton code demanded that it be rebroken each time. Apparently some daily codes were harder than others, resulting in gaps and delays in reading German traffic. In the case of the U-117, however, the combination of Ultra and the US Navy airpower at sea were sufficient to sink the only U-tanker Doenitz was able to deploy in the month of August.

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/ultra/navy-1.html

 

[MontyB]

Ah now you are agreeing that ULTRA saved lives and that it sped up the war. FINALLY. If ULTRA wasn't decisive it wouldn't have sped up the war would it? Of course ULTRA alone didn't win the war on its own, but it certainly helped the fighting forces that did win the war.

.

See here is your problem, you are picking, choosing words and determining context of other peoples posts and in many cases getting it wrong.

No one has ever claimed ULTRA did not save lives or even have an effect on the war but we are saying that you are overstating ULTRA's importance, it was not decisive as the out come of WW2 did not hinge on ULTRA being a success.

And please don't retreat to the standard "I was in the military and you weren't therefore I am a military genius and you aren't" defence that people seem to try around here when they can't win an argument through persuasion, we have kept this board relatively clean of that nonsense for years it would be a shame to see it screwed up now.

The German auxiliary cruiser Atlantis ?

On October 18, Atlantis was ordered to rendezvous with the submarine U-68 800 km (500 mi) south of St. Helena and refuel her, then to refuel U-126 at a location north of Ascension Island. Atlantis rendezvoused with U-68 on 13 November, and on 21 or 22 November with U-126. The OKM signal instruction sent to U-126 ordering this rendezvous was intercepted and deciphered by the Allied Enigma code breakers at Bletchley Park and was passed on to the Admiralty, which in turn despatched the heavy cruiser HMS Devonshire to the rendezvous area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_auxiliary_cruiser_Atlantis

Actually I will give you Atlantis and I will concede on the refuelling and resupply subs primarily because they were static targets which is why ULTRA worked better on land conflict than at sea.

But for hunting UBoats it was not as successful because the information being passed to sub hunters was already hours old and subs rarely sit bobbing up and down on the ocean for very long.

As Lljadw pointed out Uboats were more vulnerable when in confined locations such as refuelling.

 

[BritinBritain]

See here is your problem, you are picking, choosing words and determining context of other peoples posts and in many cases getting it wrong.

I don't have a problem whatsoever. Your problem and your mate is, both of you refuse to accept studies from historians who are fully qualified. To refer to published studies of ULTRA by historians as boasting by your buddy is a stupid statement to say the least.

No one has ever claimed ULTRA did not save lives or even have an effect on the war but we are saying that you are overstating ULTRA's importance, it was not decisive as the out come of WW2 did not hinge on ULTRA being a success.

Without reliable intelligence as I have had to state too many times, "Battle's can be lost as well as the war." Intelligence is vital in any operation, and that includes ULTRA. I dread to think how many lives would be lost or ships sunk if it wasn't for ULTRA

And please don't retreat to the standard "I was in the military and you weren't therefore I am a military genius and you aren't" defence that people seem to try around here when they can't win an argument through persuasion, we have kept this board relatively clean of that nonsense for years it would be a shame to see it screwed up now.

"Repeat the standard I was in the military and you wasn't." Lets not be silly Monty, I thought you were far more intelligent then that. I've never said that nor have I seen anyone say that. I don't give a toss if my argument has persuaded either you or your mate.

 

[lljadw]

A quotation of an other 'idiot' (David Kahn,considered as the world number one expert in communication intelligence):
I believe that even if we had had the worst intelligence Germans the best,we would still have defeated them.For we conqured through our manpower and industrial might,through a more efficient form of government,and through more realistic leaders.Ultra itself became useful,when we had the power to exploit it .
An other "idiot":
From a review of "Decoding history :the Battle of the atlantic and Ultra"(by W.Gardner)
Gardner demonstrates that Britain's growing ascendency over the U Boat in 1941 had many causes ,most of which were unconnected with Ultra.
He also makes a strong argument that for the period from mid 1942 to mid 1943 factors other than Ultra were essential for the allied success.

 

[MontyB]

A quotation of an other 'idiot' (David Kahn,considered as the world number one expert in communication intelligence):
I believe that even if we had had the worst intelligence Germans the best,we would still have defeated them.For we conqured through our manpower and industrial might,through a more efficient form of government,and through more realistic leaders.Ultra itself became useful,when we had the power to exploit it .
An other "idiot":
From a review of "Decoding history :the Battle of the atlantic and Ultra"(by W.Gardner)
Gardner demonstrates that Britain's growing ascendency over the U Boat in 1941 had many causes ,most of which were unconnected with Ultra.
He also makes a strong argument that for the period from mid 1942 to mid 1943 factors other than Ultra were essential for the allied success.

I have read David Khan's book "Hitler's Spies: German Military Intelligence In World War II" it is a well worth the investment.

 

[BritinBritain]

Many observers, at the time and later, regarded Ultra as immensely valuable to the Allies. Winston Churchill told King George VI: "It was thanks to Ultra that we won the war."F. W. Winterbotham, quoted the western Supreme Allied Commander, Dwight D. Eisenhower, at war's end describing Ultra as having been "decisive" to Allied victory. Sir Harry Hinsley, official historian of British Intelligence in World War II, made a similar assessment about Ultra, saying that it shortened the war "by not less than two years and probably by four years"; moreover, in the absence of Ultra, it is uncertain how the war would have ended.

Ralph Bennett, the Cambridge historian who has died aged 90, spent four years with the Bletchley Park wartime codebreaking operation, making deciphered Enigma messages appear as if they came from spies in Germany.

Their first task was to fill in any gaps left because of radio interference or garbled letters. Then, to avoid any hint that the British had broken the Enigma cipher, Bennett and his fellow intelligence reporters rewrote the messages for distribution by MI6. They removed anything which might suggest that a deciphered radio signal had not come from Source Boniface, a supposed British spy with a network of agents inside Germany.

Bennett remembered that, when Enigma was first broken in May 1940, intelligence was not rated very highly by the ordinary Army officer; and military intelligence of all kinds was still "in the same state it had been at the Battle of Hastings".

The belief still persisted that "if you wanted to know what the enemy was going to do, the only way you could find out was by getting an agent to disguise himself with a beard and spectacles and tell him to go and have a look; come back across the lines, which he might not do - he might be caught; and, anyway, he would be a bit late because it would take him a long time to do this".

The breaking of Enigma meant that: "you could now get absolutely reliable information immediately across the lines, because radio waves are no respecter of armies. But the old bull-headed generals paid no attention to Enigma. They couldn't understand it."

This attitude changed in August 1942, when Gen Bernard Montgomery, newly appointed commander of the Eighth Army, was told a few days after arriving in North Africa that Gen Erwin Rommel would try to outflank the Eighth Army by striking north to cut it off from Cairo by crossing a major obstacle, the Alam Halfa ridge.

Montgomery's success at Alam Halfa finally achieved recognition for the value of Bletchley's work.

Bennett's continuing preoccupation was to describe and document the links between intelligence and particular events. He conducted a meticulous review of the German decrypts concerning the D-Day invasion to prove, once and for all, that the Allied deception planners had been granted access to Ultra summaries.

This showed that it was possible to demonstrate cause and effect, through the efforts made to persuade the enemy that the Allied landings would take place in the Pas de Calais and the assault on Normandy would be merely a diversionary feint.

By careful study of the interrogation of Field Marshal Keitel and captured German documents, the ever-sceptical Bennett concluded that there was a case to show that Ultra was a significant factor in allowing the planners to manipulate the enemy's intelligence apparatus.

There is so much evidence out there that proves ULTRA was vital to the Allied war effort.

Also worth reading:-

Breaking the Enigma code
Polish contribution to victory

Andrzej Dabrowa, Ph.D.
http://www.avoca.ndirect.co.uk/enigma/enigma13.htm

 

[MontyB]

You will forgive my curiosity here but if ULTRA was declassified in 1971 and Winston Churchill, King George VI and Dwight D. Eisenhower were all dead before 1971 would you not assume that any comments they made on ULTRA were unlikely to be made in public or in memoirs and therefore have a high probability of being urban myth or at least third hand hearsay?

 

[BritinBritain]

You will forgive my curiosity here but if ULTRA was declassified in 1971 and Winston Churchill, King George VI and Dwight D. Eisenhower were all dead before 1971 would you not assume that any comments they made on ULTRA were unlikely to be made in public or in memoirs and therefore have a high probability of being urban myth or at least third hand hearsay?

F. W. Winterbotham died in 1990 AFTER ULTRA was made public. It was he who quoted the western Supreme Allied Commander, Dwight D. Eisenhower, at war's end describing Ultra as having been "decisive" to Allied victory.

Winterbotham's conclusion was that the war's outcome "was, in fact, a very narrow shave, and the reader may like to ponder [...] whether or not we might have won had we not had Ultra."

And has been stated more then once I believe, parts of ULTRA are still classified Top Secret today.

 

[lljadw]

About Winterbotham :see the devastating review of "the Ultra Secret" by Loius Tordella.
BTW:the same Winterbotham has been exposed as a LIAR:he had claimed that Churchill knew of the imminent attack on Coventry,but that Churchill preferred to sacrifice Coventry,to preserve the secrecy of Ultra :well:Ultra knew knothing about the attack on Coventry,thus the story of Winterbotham was a LIE.

 

[BritinBritain]

About Winterbotham :see the devastating review of "the Ultra Secret" by Loius Tordella.
BTW:the same Winterbotham has been exposed as a LIAR:he had claimed that Churchill knew of the imminent attack on Coventry,but that Churchill preferred to sacrifice Coventry,to preserve the secrecy of Ultra :well:Ultra knew knothing about the attack on Coventry,thus the story of Winterbotham was a LIE.

By the same token as you assumed ULTRA didn't play the part that historians say it did, you too are a liar.

So what? Winterbotham wrongly assumed Churchill allowed Coventry to be destroyed to save ULTRA, you are forever assuming something without proof so by the same token you are a liar too.

ULTRA was the greatest secret of World War U after the atom bomb. With the exception of knowledge about that weapon and the probable exception of the time and place of major operations, such as the Normandy invasion, no information was held more tightly .... The security implies ULTRA's significance. ULTRA furnished intelligence better than any in the whole long history of humankind. It was more precise, more trustworthy, more voluminous, more continuous, longer lasting, and available faster, at a higher level, and from more commands than any other form of intelligence - spies or scouts or aerial reconnaissance or prisoner interrogations .... It may be concluded that ULTRA saved the world two years of war, billions of dollars, and millions of lives.
David Kahn, Seizing the Enigma

David Khan by the way is one of your favourite authors, did you gloss over his conclusion as it didn't gel with your agenda or are you calling him a liar too?

 

[lljadw]

Winterbotham did not assume wrongly :he clearly stated that Churchill had advance warning of the attack on Coventry (a lie) and that Churchill intentionally did nothing (an other lie) .Reason of these lies:selling more copies of his book and making money .
For the rest:I have no desire to have any contact with a bully who can't suffer dissenting opinions (probably regretting the good old time when he could break recruits) .
Have a good time with the other colonel Blimps.

 

[MontyB]

A quotation of an other 'idiot' (David Kahn,considered as the world number one expert in communication intelligence):
I believe that even if we had had the worst intelligence Germans the best,we would still have defeated them.For we conqured through our manpower and industrial might,through a more efficient form of government,and through more realistic leaders.Ultra itself became useful,when we had the power to exploit it .

In my opinion the section in red is the best description I have seen yet and probably the best answer to my original question.

 

[BritinBritain]

Winterbotham did not assume wrongly :he clearly stated that Churchill had advance warning of the attack on Coventry (a lie) and that Churchill intentionally did nothing (an other lie) .Reason of these lies:selling more copies of his book and making money .
For the rest:I have no desire to have any contact with a bully who can't suffer dissenting opinions (probably regretting the good old time when he could break recruits) .
Have a good time with the other colonel Blimps.

I see you totally ignored my reference to David Kahn.

How do you know Winterbotham didn't assume wrongly? Were you there? Did you meet him or talk to him?

No desire any contact with a bully, regretting the good old times breaking recruits? Have a good time with the other colonel Blimps. Those Colonel Blimps as you call them at least talk sense, which you have shown time and time again, are incapable of you silly little man.

In my opinion the section in red is the best description I have seen yet and probably the best answer to my original question.

How strange Monty that the same bloke wrote and I quote,

"ULTRA was the greatest secret of World War U after the atom bomb. With the exception of knowledge about that weapon and the probable exception of the time and place of major operations, such as the Normandy invasion, no information was held more tightly .... The security implies ULTRA's significance. ULTRA furnished intelligence better than any in the whole long history of humankind. It was more precise, more trustworthy, more voluminous, more continuous, longer lasting, and available faster, at a higher level, and from more commands than any other form of intelligence - spies or scouts or aerial reconnaissance or prisoner interrogations .... It may be concluded that ULTRA saved the world two years of war, billions of dollars, and millions of lives.
David Kahn, Seizing the Enigma"

 

[MontyB]

I am not quite sure why you are making a competition out of this, it must be an English thing as Del Boy does it as well.

We are discussing why we think Germany lost WW2 and in the end there are a huge number of reasons why this happened, not just logistics, Hitler or ULTRA they all played a part but none of them are the sole reason they lost.

 

[BritinBritain]

I am not quite sure why you are making a competition out of this, it must be an English thing as Del Boy does it as well.

We are discussing why we think Germany lost WW2 and in the end there are a huge number of reasons why this happened, not just logistics, Hitler or ULTRA they all played a part but none of them are the sole reason they lost.

Possibly it is an English thing, we don't give up too easily:lol:

Oh I agree with you totally, where I tend to disagree is when someone under values something that they know very little or nothing about and then tries to attribute historical notes or books to "boasting" FFS. Ignorance I will tolerate, stupidity I won't.

eace:

 

[MontyB]

Straight after WW2 a lot of history was written but it was one sided history and for years this version of history has been taught in schools to people like you and I, Germans were bad Allies were good.

In the last 20-30 years as documents have become available and a new generation of historians have come of age we have been able to re-evaluate history with knowledge we did not have before and without the bias that once tainted peoples views which means that the "myth's" that developed to fill the void of information we did not have can now be dispelled and things we felt were set in stone suddenly become less important.

 

[Del Boy]

Great thread here Chaps; seriously, I am all ears .:smile:

 

[Del Boy]

I am not quite sure why you are making a competition out of this, it must be an English thing as Del Boy does it as well.

Monty - please understand that usually on such threads as this I am often being tongue in cheek. I have always found it a little amusing when this question crops up again and again. No problem with that of course, and I can't help feeling personally involved, but watching from the side- lines.
At least I keep it brief and have a chuckle.:lol:

 

[BritinBritain]

Straight after WW2 a lot of history was written but it was one sided history and for years this version of history has been taught in schools to people like you and I, Germans were bad Allies were good.

In the last 20-30 years as documents have become available and a new generation of historians have come of age we have been able to re-evaluate history with knowledge we did not have before and without the bias that once tainted peoples views which means that the "myth's" that developed to fill the void of information we did not have can now be dispelled and things we felt were set in stone suddenly become less important.

In all honesty Monty, we will never know the full story of WW2, so much is still classified "Top Secret," along with ULTRA and will never be released to the public.