MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
It is unfortunate the Ukrainians are fighting this war on a shoestring budget; I really wish the west as a whole would commit to helping them "win" rather than this "keeping them in the game" approach.
Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Russia has a lot of people to throw into this meat grinder and people are the cheapest war material they have. It is harder for them to replace all the vehicles. The Russian army is now deploying T-54/55. They cannot deploy all their best MBTs if this escalate to a bigger war, but we might see T-34s pretty soon if they continue like this.
It also depends on how desperate Putin is, he is fighting for his life. Is NATO prepared to start WWIII if Russia begins to use C-weapons
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I doubt NATO needs to start WW3 if Russia used an NBC weapon, Russian doctrine is only to use its nuclear deterrent if its existence is under threat which effectively means if Russia itself is invaded and NATO is not going to do that however NATO air strikes on Russian positions in Ukraine doesn't threaten Russia's existence.
Now while it would be funny, I am sad to say no matter how bad the situation gets you wont see T-34s on Ukrainian battlefields as they simply no longer have any significant quantities.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
You are hopefully right.
Do you think the Ukrainian operational plan in Kursk is to turn east and to trap the Russian in the Donbas? And maybe if everything works to continue further south and across the Kerch bridge to capture the Crimean?
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
You did see the "Civilian" designation in my military status field I assume, so it is difficult to comment.
My opinion is that this is just what they have said, a push into Kursk with the view of setting up a buffer that will consume Russian troop and material strength and probably the best part of 12 months (at the rate the Russians are moving) to push them out, in that time they can build solid defenses along the Sumy border and protect the Sumy region and not be caught out like they were to some degree in the Kharkiv region.
I imagine they will try and head south-east along the border to put pressure on the Russian incursion into Kharkiv but I don't see them going too far and I certainly don't see them cutting off the Russians in Donbas as to do that they would have to bring Highway 105 under control and that requires getting very close to Belgorod City and they just don't have the manpower to get involved in trying to capture a major city.
I am not convinced they are ever going to retake Crimea as they again don't have the manpower, but I could see them retaking the Kherson region by taking down the Kerch bridge and getting far enough across the Dnieper River to cut the E-58 Highway.
Personally, I am surprised Ukraine has shown no interest in counter attacking seriously in the east as that is where I would have attacked last summer instead of that telegraphed mess around Tokmak.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology
Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology
Ukraine will launch the production of 155-mm shells using the technology of the Norwegian company Nammo
mil.in.ua
I think this should have been done from the start of this conflict, the more material Ukraine can make in house the less reliance they will have on Western political largesse.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Yes, and not having any restriction on how the Ukrainians can use the military aid.Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology
Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology
Ukraine will launch the production of 155-mm shells using the technology of the Norwegian company Nammo
I think this should have been done from the start of this conflict, the more material Ukraine can make in house the less reliance they will have on Western political largesse.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Yep, I think the greatest threat to Ukraine now is less the Russians and more a Trump presidency (which I suspect is partially behind the incursion into Kursk as it makes Trumps plan to "Freeze" the conflict more interesting), so the more material Ukraine makes the less impact Trump will have and ammunition is Ukraines archillies heel.
This is why I believe that in many ways the Mirage fighters are more important than the F-16 as they can be grounded if the US blocks spare parts etc.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I assume all the Brits are shaking in their shoes?
www.telegraph.co.uk
I assume it is 10 years after the 50 years it is going to take them to get to the Polish border with whatever they have left of a military armed with rusty Mosin's and dressed in the finest body armour airsoft can produce at which point they will what catch a train to the English Channel?
Putin will soon turn his war machine on Britain
Putin will soon turn his war machine on Britain
The Kremlin holds us responsible for its failures and will, at some point, attempt to exact its revenge
www.telegraph.co.uk
I assume it is 10 years after the 50 years it is going to take them to get to the Polish border with whatever they have left of a military armed with rusty Mosin's and dressed in the finest body armour airsoft can produce at which point they will what catch a train to the English Channel?
Russia shoots down its own drone. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...b5f774a1b19445291f99f8afab3da9d&ei=87#image=1
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Yeah, once again Russian delusions about its equipment outpaces its actual capabilities, first it was the T-95 that was faster than a F-15 and able to leap six story buildings in a single bound but never actually existed other than in the vodka-soaked minds of Russian propagandists.
Then came the T-14 Armata, the world's newest 55-ton paperweight.
A list of features to make any western tanker quake with fear at the thought of running into it, unfortunately it has yet to make a combat appearance in Ukraine, probably because it broke down crossing Red Square in a parade.
Let's, not forget the father of them all, the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's one and only aircraft carrier that has spent its career on fire and listing as it limps from port to port for repairs belching out so much smoke it can be seen from space.
My point is that Russia produces this rubbish, paints it as the latest wunderwaffe and then discovers instead of 10000 of them it actually has 1000 because half the appropriated money was stolen along the supply chain and of the 1000, they do have only 100 of them actually work as half the parts for the rest don't exist or were sold off by a dodgy factory supervisor and the functioning 100 don't go to the front because they cost so much they are afraid to risk them.
So, when it comes to their super-secret wonder drones getting shot down by their own aircraft who can really be surprised by the failure of a bit of equipment made by a largely incompetent, entirely corrupt nation.
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I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
It seems the North Koreans are in the Kursk region. My perception of having them there is; Much better for the Russians to have North Korean casualties than Russian. Will the North Koreans contribute to the Russian war effort? Yes, maybe, but it depends on how many soldiers the NK have in the Kursk region. Another question is; what does NK get in return for having soldiers fighting in the Ukrainian war? I guess missile technology and maybe even nuclear technology. This "alliance" between Russia and NK can backfire a lot for Russia. NK can drag them into a war between NK and South Korea/US
The words are "cannon fodder". If the individual Korean has no family for Kim to hold hostage I imagine the defection rate would be high.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I thought that, however 10-13000 North Koreans are a week's worth of meat in this war so it is the bare minimum.
It’s honestly heartbreaking to see how much devastation this war has caused. I can’t imagine what it’s like for the people stuck in the middle of it, trying to hold onto some sense of normal life. It just feels like such an unnecessary loss on both sides, and I really hope there’s some kind of resolution soon that leads to real, lasting peace. Watching the news updates just makes it all feel so heavy.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Not sure I agree.
Russia did not have to invade but they did, Russians could step up and demand an end to it but they don't, Russians do not have to sign up but they do for large sums of cash, so if the war was unnecessary and Russians are not protesting but are infact volunteering to go then they deserve all they get.
There was a saying that sums it up, if Russia stops fighting the war ends, if Ukraine stops fighting then Ukraine ends.
There is no doubt that the war ending tomorrow would be a good thing but but short of Ukraine surrendering only Russia can do that.
As you can tell I am not a fan of "normalising" Russian actions, they started this mess and they need to pay the price or it will get worse, essentially if we learned only one thing from the great conflicts of the 20th century it should have been that appeasing dictators leads to much bigger disasters.
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