Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[MontyB]

It seems the border was being “defended” by unarmed and inadequately trained conscripts who mostly surrendered.

It is unfortunate the Ukrainians are fighting this war on a shoestring budget; I really wish the west as a whole would commit to helping them "win" rather than this "keeping them in the game" approach.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Unlike Syria though the west is watching and has said it will respond if they are used so I am not sure it would be a wise move on Putin's part.

I have been convinced for a long time now that the only thing that has kept Russia in this war has been the massive stockpiles of Soviet crap they inherited, the mess they have made of this conflict has effectively crippled the Russia military for decades by which time the current bunch of nutters running the country will be dead and buried.

Russia has a lot of people to throw into this meat grinder and people are the cheapest war material they have. It is harder for them to replace all the vehicles. The Russian army is now deploying T-54/55. They cannot deploy all their best MBTs if this escalate to a bigger war, but we might see T-34s pretty soon if they continue like this.

It also depends on how desperate Putin is, he is fighting for his life. Is NATO prepared to start WWIII if Russia begins to use C-weapons

 

[MontyB]

Russia has a lot of people to throw into this meat grinder and people are the cheapest war material they have. It is harder for them to replace all the vehicles. The Russian army is now deploying T-54/55. They cannot deploy all their best MBTs if this escalate to a bigger war, but we might see T-34s pretty soon if they continue like this.

It also depends on how desperate Putin is, he is fighting for his life. Is NATO prepared to start WWIII if Russia begins to use C-weapons

I doubt NATO needs to start WW3 if Russia used an NBC weapon, Russian doctrine is only to use its nuclear deterrent if its existence is under threat which effectively means if Russia itself is invaded and NATO is not going to do that however NATO air strikes on Russian positions in Ukraine doesn't threaten Russia's existence.

Now while it would be funny, I am sad to say no matter how bad the situation gets you wont see T-34s on Ukrainian battlefields as they simply no longer have any significant quantities.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I doubt NATO needs to start WW3 if Russia used an NBC weapon, Russian doctrine is only to use its nuclear deterrent if its existence is under threat which effectively means if Russia itself is invaded and NATO is not going to do that however NATO air strikes on Russian positions in Ukraine doesn't threaten Russia's existence.

Now while it would be funny, I am sad to say no matter how bad the situation gets you wont see T-34s on Ukrainian battlefields as they simply no longer have any significant quantities.

You are hopefully right.

Do you think the Ukrainian operational plan in Kursk is to turn east and to trap the Russian in the Donbas? And maybe if everything works to continue further south and across the Kerch bridge to capture the Crimean?

 

[MontyB]

You are hopefully right.

Do you think the Ukrainian operational plan in Kursk is to turn east and to trap the Russian in the Donbas? And maybe if everything works to continue further south and across the Kerch bridge to capture the Crimean?

You did see the "Civilian" designation in my military status field I assume, so it is difficult to comment.

My opinion is that this is just what they have said, a push into Kursk with the view of setting up a buffer that will consume Russian troop and material strength and probably the best part of 12 months (at the rate the Russians are moving) to push them out, in that time they can build solid defenses along the Sumy border and protect the Sumy region and not be caught out like they were to some degree in the Kharkiv region.

I imagine they will try and head south-east along the border to put pressure on the Russian incursion into Kharkiv but I don't see them going too far and I certainly don't see them cutting off the Russians in Donbas as to do that they would have to bring Highway 105 under control and that requires getting very close to Belgorod City and they just don't have the manpower to get involved in trying to capture a major city.

I am not convinced they are ever going to retake Crimea as they again don't have the manpower, but I could see them retaking the Kherson region by taking down the Kerch bridge and getting far enough across the Dnieper River to cut the E-58 Highway.

Personally, I am surprised Ukraine has shown no interest in counter attacking seriously in the east as that is where I would have attacked last summer instead of that telegraphed mess around Tokmak.

 

[MontyB]

Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology​

Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology

Ukraine will launch the production of 155-mm shells using the technology of the Norwegian company Nammo

mil.in.ua

I think this should have been done from the start of this conflict, the more material Ukraine can make in house the less reliance they will have on Western political largesse.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology​

Ukraine to Start 155-mm Shell Production with Norwegian Technology

Ukraine will launch the production of 155-mm shells using the technology of the Norwegian company Nammo

mil.in.ua

I think this should have been done from the start of this conflict, the more material Ukraine can make in house the less reliance they will have on Western political largesse.

Yes, and not having any restriction on how the Ukrainians can use the military aid.

 

[MontyB]

Yes, and not having any restriction on how the Ukrainians can use the military aid.

Yep, I think the greatest threat to Ukraine now is less the Russians and more a Trump presidency (which I suspect is partially behind the incursion into Kursk as it makes Trumps plan to "Freeze" the conflict more interesting), so the more material Ukraine makes the less impact Trump will have and ammunition is Ukraines archillies heel.

This is why I believe that in many ways the Mirage fighters are more important than the F-16 as they can be grounded if the US blocks spare parts etc.

 

[MontyB]

I assume all the Brits are shaking in their shoes?

Putin will soon turn his war machine on Britain​

Putin will soon turn his war machine on Britain

The Kremlin holds us responsible for its failures and will, at some point, attempt to exact its revenge

www.telegraph.co.uk

I assume it is 10 years after the 50 years it is going to take them to get to the Polish border with whatever they have left of a military armed with rusty Mosin's and dressed in the finest body armour airsoft can produce at which point they will what catch a train to the English Channel?