Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

The Ukrainians have turned off the oil pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, can that be described as "what goes around, comes around"?
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
That's true. The US Navy has tankers, but it will be much better for the US if they can base naval (and other forces) closer to the US interest and not being forced to go back to the US coasts. I think it is beneficial for the US to have a permanent military presence in the Mediterranean and on the European side of the Atlantic
Click to expand...
Hopefully Trump is only bluffing on his comments about withdrawing from NATO.
 
MontyB said:
Forcing the Russians to move resources around and destroy their own infrastructure is my guess.
Click to expand...
I agree. I view the incursion into Russia as a major raid and to send a message to Russia. Zelensky said something about bringing the war to Russia. I hope the Ukrainians return shortly after creating a havoc. Otherwise they will lose resources. It is rather strange the Russians didn't detect the build up of Ukrainian forces when this war is the war of drones
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I agree. I view the incursion into Russia as a major raid and to send a message to Russia. Zelensky said something about bringing the war to Russia. I hope the Ukrainians return shortly after creating a havoc. Otherwise they will lose resources. It is rather strange the Russians didn't detect the build up of Ukrainian forces when this war is the war of drones
Click to expand...
I don't think it is strange, it appears that there is a huge series of disconnects between the front, command and politician leadership as there were several reports of the build up from front line units however I suspect there is a reticence for bad news to travel up the chain of command and as such those reports just got lost or sanitised the further up they went until Putin got a message saying "purple, monkey, dishwasher" (Simpsons reference) instead of "Sh*t tonnes of Ukrainians camping out in Kursk".
I personally think that if the terrain allows it Ukraine should stay and force the Russians to push them out, better to be pushed back a few metres at a time on Russian territory than Ukrainian, let the Russians destroy their own playgrounds, hospitals and villages for a change.
 
MontyB said:
I don't think it is strange, it appears that there is a huge series of disconnects between the front, command and politician leadership as there were several reports of the build up from front line units however I suspect there is a reticence for bad news to travel up the chain of command and as such those reports just got lost or sanitised the further up they went until Putin got a message saying "purple, monkey, dishwasher" (Simpsons reference) instead of "Sh*t tonnes of Ukrainians camping out in Kursk".
I personally think that if the terrain allows it Ukraine should stay and force the Russians to push them out, better to be pushed back a few metres at a time on Russian territory than Ukrainian, let the Russians destroy their own playgrounds, hospitals and villages for a change.
Click to expand...
But hiding a brigade battlegroup, but you are most likely right. Why are the Ukrainians doing it? They are taking a risk doing this. One reason can be to have something to negotiate about, but that seems to be farfetch
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
But hiding a brigade battlegroup, but you are most likely right. Why are the Ukrainians doing it? They are taking a risk doing this. One reason can be to have something to negotiate about, but that seems to be farfetch
Click to expand...
I suspect it is more to press a point to Russians themselves that despite Putin telling you how great you are doing, here we are.
It is to weaken Putin in his own back yard.
 
MontyB said:
I suspect it is more to press a point to Russians themselves that despite Putin telling you how great you are doing, here we are.
It is to weaken Putin in his own back yard.
Click to expand...
And to show the West what we can do. Are the Russians moving forces from Ukraine to deal with this incursion?
 
AirborneWings said:
Unfortunately Putin will unleash heavy indiscriminate air strikes on civilian infrastructure as retaliation !
Click to expand...
I am not 100% sure he has the capacity to do that, or I think he would have done it by now.

I don't doubt he will try but his air force seems confined to Russia itself, his Black Sea fleet is currently multitasking as accommodation for regional sea life and artificial reefs and the army has lost so much armour and transport that it is now little more than light infantry and it is a very long walk to Kyiv let alone Lviv.

Clearly, they can still take ground with high losses and at the moment they still have manpower to burn but soon the shortages of manpower in civilian sectors will start to really hurt the Russian economy and missiles don't come cheap especially when you have to get most of your chips etc. via third parties and shady dealers.
 
The incursion is also a morale boost for the Ukrainians. They have been on the receiving end of Russian attacks and can only respond to Russian activity.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The incursion is also a morale boost for the Ukrainians. They have been on the receiving end of Russian attacks and can only respond to Russian activity.
Click to expand...
So far the rumours are that Ukraine is preparing defences which sounds like they plan to stay as long as they can.

www.forbes.com

Ukrainian Troops Are Digging Trenches In Russia’s Kursk Oblast. It’s A Sign They Plan To Stay.

Every day the Russians don’t counterattack is a day the Ukrainians dig in deeper.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
George said:
Intelligence gold mine https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...31&cvid=a62cfed669434924ad7d2c3e39835104&ei=7
Click to expand...
Not sure I agree, I have no doubt they can extract some useful information from it but for the most part I am not even convinced the Russians know what they are doing, moving or transporting as almost everything they do seems influenced heavily by the endemic corruption within the Russian system, sure they shipped 100 T72s but 25 of them were just cardboard cut outs as the factory manager had sold most of the parts to build a new swimming pool.

Of the 75 remaining Quartermaster Ivor Benpinchin sold 5 to pay for his hookers in Kursk, of the remaining 70 Major Drunkoff Hisfaceski has sold the ERA to pay for wife's new BMW and Private Conscriptovich has sold every nut and bolt he could get his hands on to stay drunk 24/7, of the 100 T-72s that started the trip only 10 arrived functioning and the rest were cutouts and empty shells held together with old chewing gum but the manifest will still say 100 T-72s.

I think the only thing NATO has to fear from Russia is complacency, drones have led to some strategy rethinking, but I see drones as only really effective in static warfare and I think the wests focus on air dominance will prevent that from happening.
 
Last edited:
I am quite concerned about the Russian losses of equipment. They are losing a lot of vehicles and other stuff and they are much harder to replace than finding new soldiers. Russia has used C and R weapons so they might do it again. I am not concerned about N weapons.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I am quite concerned about the Russian losses of equipment. They are losing a lot of vehicles and other stuff and they are much harder to replace than finding new soldiers. Russia has used C and R weapons so they might do it again. I am not concerned about N weapons.
Click to expand...
Unlike Syria though the west is watching and has said it will respond if they are used so I am not sure it would be a wise move on Putin's part.

I have been convinced for a long time now that the only thing that has kept Russia in this war has been the massive stockpiles of Soviet crap they inherited, the mess they have made of this conflict has effectively crippled the Russia military for decades by which time the current bunch of nutters running the country will be dead and buried.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top