Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

MontyB said:
So Ukraine isn't getting the Toblerone?
I would suggest that the German chain dragging will probably create some issues for the German arms manufacturers as well.

I am also noting that the US has already doubled its 155mm shell production and has plans to increase it 3 fold again within a year but even that will still be less than Ukraine is using, Europe really needs to get on with their plans to increase production but as usual it starts with a hiss and a roar and then gets buried in red tape...

www.reuters.com

EU plans to boost ammunition production to aid Ukraine

The European Union's executive wants to set aside more than 500 million euros ($550 million) to increase ammunition production to help Ukraine and replenish the stocks of EU member countries.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Ukraine is buying NATO time as I can't see this ending at the Polish border, to many bridges have been burnt for this to just fade away, either Ukraine wins or Moldova and the Baltic states are next.
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I read somewhere (I will see if I can find it again) South Korea doesn't directly provide Ukraine with ammunition, but they do it indirectly when they supply the US with 155mm shells.
 
MontyB said:
Ukraine is buying NATO time as I can't see this ending at the Polish border, to many bridges have been burnt for this to just fade away, either Ukraine wins or Moldova and the Baltic states are next.
Click to expand...
Balic States are in NATO so may be buying time for NATO. Moldova is on its own and as of the beginning of the war already had 1,000 Russian troops in it "protecting" ethnic Russians. Moldova is territory the USSR seized from Romania after WWII, probably best move for them probably would be to rejoin Romania.
 
George said:
Balic States are in NATO so may be buying time for NATO. Moldova is on its own and as of the beginning of the war already had 1,000 Russian troops in it "protecting" ethnic Russians. Moldova is territory the USSR seized from Romania after WWII, probably best move for them probably would be to rejoin Romania.
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I think that the best we can hope for is another 20-40 years of a new cold war but if Russia is allowed to win this I can't see Moldova surviving, NATO may protect the Baltic states that remains to be seen, I am not entirely convinced Lukashenko's map was a joke.
 
NATO and other countries can allow Ukraine to win the war if the Ukrainians get what they need to do it without delays. However, both the Ukrainians and the west wanted to see a more rapid offensive similar as what the Ukrainians achieved when they recaptured areas in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. But it is better to reduce the Russians ability to fight with smashing the Russian logistics, command structure, and artillery positions instead of attacking and suffer a huge amount of casualties and maybe risking to fail with the counter offensive. It can also change very fast if and when the Ukrainians break through the Russian defenses. If the Ukrainians are able to do that, they can also pin the Russian defenses against their own defenses and mine fields.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
NATO and other countries can allow Ukraine to win the war if the Ukrainians get what they need to do it without delays. However, both the Ukrainians and the west wanted to see a more rapid offensive similar as what the Ukrainians achieved when they recaptured areas in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. But it is better to reduce the Russians ability to fight with smashing the Russian logistics, command structure, and artillery positions instead of attacking and suffer a huge amount of casualties and maybe risking to fail with the counter offensive. It can also change very fast if and when the Ukrainians break through the Russian defenses. If the Ukrainians are able to do that, they can also pin the Russian defenses against their own defenses and mine fields.
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This sounded interesting...
www.pravda.com.ua

Zelenskyy: Swedish-made Gripen jets nearing appearance in Ukrainian skies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the Ukrainian military has begun participating in test flights on Swedish Gripen combat aircraft, and that Ukraine is conducting negotiations so that these aircraft can “appear in our skies.”
www.pravda.com.ua www.pravda.com.ua

I still think it is the best aircraft for Ukraine.

However, this looks like a problem...

asiapacificdefencereporter.com

HIMARS price increase doesn’t add up - APDR

On August 18 the State Department notified Congress of a HIMARS sale to Australia valued at US $975 million ($1.529 billion) for 22 launchers and associated rockets.
asiapacificdefencereporter.com asiapacificdefencereporter.com

Although it could be good for South Korean MLRS sales.
 
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MontyB said:
, I am not entirely convinced Lukashenko's map was a joke.
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Putin (or someone) said that western Poland was a gift from Stalin, not mentioning that it was compensation for Stalin stealing eastern Poland. Lukashenko would out a lot of territory if Poland got it back...
 
MontyB said:
This sounded interesting...
www.pravda.com.ua

Zelenskyy: Swedish-made Gripen jets nearing appearance in Ukrainian skies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the Ukrainian military has begun participating in test flights on Swedish Gripen combat aircraft, and that Ukraine is conducting negotiations so that these aircraft can “appear in our skies.”
www.pravda.com.ua www.pravda.com.ua

I still think it is the best aircraft for Ukraine.

However, this looks like a problem...

asiapacificdefencereporter.com

HIMARS price increase doesn’t add up - APDR

On August 18 the State Department notified Congress of a HIMARS sale to Australia valued at US $975 million ($1.529 billion) for 22 launchers and associated rockets.
asiapacificdefencereporter.com asiapacificdefencereporter.com

Although it could be good for South Korean MLRS sales.
Click to expand...
Gripen is a good multi-fighter and the Ukrainians want it, but my concern is quite similar as when they got Leopards, Challenger, Abrams, and all other vehicles. Giving them Gripen and F-16 will create a logistical mess, on the other hand. The Ukrainians have managed to handle it. F-16 and Gripen can use the same munition

It seems the Ukrainians are close to break through in the south
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Gripen is a good multi-fighter and the Ukrainians want it, but my concern is quite similar as when they got Leopards, Challenger, Abrams, and all other vehicles. Giving them Gripen and F-16 will create a logistical mess, on the other hand. The Ukrainians have managed to handle it. F-16 and Gripen can use the same munition

It seems the Ukrainians are close to break through in the south
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I really do feel for the Ukrainian logistics crews, it must be a nightmare keeping everything functioning and supplied but they seem to be doing a pretty good job.

As far as the offensive goes, it is hard to say how it is going as the propaganda from both sides is swamping the real information, at some stage however I guess they will come to the end of the minefields and once they can get out into the open it may take off.

But even if they called it off tomorrow I don't think it could be considered a failure as they appear to have seriously degraded the Russian army.
 
MontyB said:
I really do feel for the Ukrainian logistics crews, it must be a nightmare keeping everything functioning and supplied but they seem to be doing a pretty good job.

As far as the offensive goes, it is hard to say how it is going as the propaganda from both sides is swamping the real information, at some stage however I guess they will come to the end of the minefields and once they can get out into the open it may take off.

But even if they called it off tomorrow I don't think it could be considered a failure as they appear to have seriously degraded the Russian army.
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So true, the first casualty is the truth.

It can be the ketchup effect if the Ukrainians break through. Have the Ukrainians deployed the Abrams yet? I think they are using the brigade with C2 now.

I think the Ukrainians are fighting wisely it is better to degrade the Russian forces instead of focusing on recapturing territory. The Ukrainians will get their land back when the Russians are forced to retreat due to the lack of ammunition, fuel, etc
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
So true, the first casualty is the truth.

It can be the ketchup effect if the Ukrainians break through. Have the Ukrainians deployed the Abrams yet? I think they are using the brigade with C2 now.

I think the Ukrainians are fighting wisely it is better to degrade the Russian forces instead of focusing on recapturing territory. The Ukrainians will get their land back when the Russians are forced to retreat due to the lack of ammunition, fuel, etc
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I am trying to remember some numbers, I think it was that you required one company for every kilometre of defense's (this may be wrong as it was 35 years ago), if this the case the Russians have no where near enough troops to man their main defences in the south so if the Ukrainians can breakthrough on a significantly wide enough axis that second line may not hold at all.
It also looks like another kilometre or two and Tokmak will be within range of towed artillery which puts the main logistics artery for the region in jeopardy.
However, as said the propaganda from both sides is obscuring the truth for example we don't know Ukrainian losses.

I am also seeing a lot of Russian armour operating on roads and fields now which may mean they are almost through the bulk of the minefields.

I don't think the Abrams have arrived yet, they were scheduled for delivery in September.

This is why I think the Gripen is the right aircraft for Ukraine (despite Sweden saying no).

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I would say a mobile and flexible defense is better than a static one. The terrain can also be beneficial to the defender, we can compare the German defense in France and the German defense in Italy. It was much harder for the allied forces to advance in Italy than it was in France. The Ukrainian counter offensive reminds me a bit of how the Germans were able to contain the allied forces in Normandy for awhile, but operation cobra changed things for the allied. Something similar can happen in Ukraine.

I would provide the Ukrainians with long range munition for the HIMARS and MLRS, more advanced UAVs (with weapons) than giving them fighter planes. It would be much easier to train the Ukrainians to use UAVS than to fighter planes. The Ukrainians learn pretty fast to use western equipment, I have no doubts the Ukrainian pilots learn to fly the F-16 fast, but to train the technicians will take longer
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I would say a mobile and flexible defense is better than a static one. The terrain can also be beneficial to the defender, we can compare the German defense in France and the German defense in Italy. It was much harder for the allied forces to advance in Italy than it was in France. The Ukrainian counter offensive reminds me a bit of how the Germans were able to contain the allied forces in Normandy for awhile, but operation cobra changed things for the allied. Something similar can happen in Ukraine.

I would provide the Ukrainians with long range munition for the HIMARS and MLRS, more advanced UAVs (with weapons) than giving them fighter planes. It would be much easier to train the Ukrainians to use UAVS than to fighter planes. The Ukrainians learn pretty fast to use western equipment, I have no doubts the Ukrainian pilots learn to fly the F-16 fast, but to train the technicians will take longer
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I still think Ukraine would be best served trying to hire foreign technician's in the short term.
Basically an International Technical Brigade to maintain the F-16s and technical Western kit while Ukrainians are trained properly.
 
MontyB said:
I still think Ukraine would be best served trying to hire foreign technician's in the short term.
Basically an International Technical Brigade to maintain the F-16s and technical Western kit while Ukrainians are trained properly.
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They might already do that. There are many different kinds of PMCs and not only Wagner, Blackwater, Executive Outcomes kind of companies. There are other companies which provide with logistics, training, and more analytic tasks for the governments and the armed forces. There are a lot of people out there with the experience of the maintenance of F-16 planes. These "logistic" PMCs might have been in Ukraine for a long time to handle the maintenance of the western made vehicles and munition. These companies don't expose themselves like what the mercenary companies do.
 
George said:
Putin (or someone) said that western Poland was a gift from Stalin, not mentioning that it was compensation for Stalin stealing eastern Poland. Lukashenko would out a lot of territory if Poland got it back...
Click to expand...
George said:
Putin (or someone) said that western Poland was a gift from Stalin, not mentioning that it was compensation for Stalin stealing eastern Poland. Lukashenko would out a lot of territory if Poland got it back...
Click to expand...
In Eastern Poland the Poles were only a minority ,biggest group were the Ukrainians and Stalin captured Eastern Poland in September 1939 to prevent the Germans from taking it,as the OUN was very active in Eastern Poland against the Poles .A coalition of the OUN and the Abwehr/SS was considered as very dangerous by Stalin .
George said:
Balic States are in NATO so may be buying time for NATO. Moldova is on its own and as of the beginning of the war already had 1,000 Russian troops in it "protecting" ethnic Russians. Moldova is territory the USSR seized from Romania after WWII, probably best move for them probably would be to rejoin Romania.
Click to expand...
Moldavia is territory Romania took away from Russia after WW1
 
lljadw said:
In Eastern Poland the Poles were only a minority ,biggest group were the Ukrainians and Stalin captured Eastern Poland in September 1939 to prevent the Germans from taking it,as the OUN was very active in Eastern Poland against the Poles .A coalition of the OUN and the Abwehr/SS was considered as very dangerous by Stalin .

Moldavia is territory Romania took away from Russia after WW1
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Think Hitler & Stalin agreed to divide Poland before it started. Wasn't aware of the WWI thing.
 
George said:
Surprised it took this long.
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They like plausible deniability in Russia, like their elections they rig them but would prefer not to rig them too much unlike Belarus who can announce the result and winning margin a month before voting.

There is also some rumours that it was taken down by an air defence missile.

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