Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

I3BrigPvSk said:
If Belarus allows a new attack from its territory it will allow Ukraine to attack targets in Belarus and Ukraine should attack them if they do.

How will the Belarusian react to it when Lukashenko faced a lot of protests after the latest election in Belarus. It might also increase the amount of Belarusians joining the Belarusians fighting on the Ukrainian side.

I agree with NATO should make it clear for Lukashenko if they intervene in the war NATO intervenes as well
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Now it appears Belorussia are sabre rattling.

Belarusian troops are reportedly moving closer to the Polish border in what appears to be a threat to a NATO ally, independent Belarusian media reported. According to Belarusian Hajun project, one of the Belarusian brigades crossed a pontoon bridge over the Neman river as part of the combat readiness inspection. Quoting a Belarusian military channel, the Belarusian media said: "Today Neman, tomorrow Vistula or Dnieper. There’re no barriers for the Belarusian tank crew."

The Neman river runs from the eastern part of Belarus into Lithuania within 7.5 miles of the Polish border. If the Belarusian military executes its threat, the Ukraine war would spill over into Poland and most likely trigger article 4 of the NATO military alliance.

The risk of a Third World War escalated in mid-November after a stray rocket killed two people in the south-eastern Poland village of Przewodow, near the border with war-ravaged Ukraine.

After an emergency NATO meeting, Poland said the missile was "probably an accident" from Ukrainian air defences.

Belarus' war operations have come under closer scrutiny in recent weeks as an increasing number of troops have reportedly amassed at the border with Ukraine - the same tactic Russian forces used before launching a full-blown invasion - raising fears of a potential assault on northwestern Ukraine.

If Belarussia does invade Poland, Poland will in my opinion have the daft buggers for breakfast.

What is wrong with these people????
 
BritinBritain said:
Now it appears Belorussia are sabre rattling.

Belarusian troops are reportedly moving closer to the Polish border in what appears to be a threat to a NATO ally, independent Belarusian media reported. According to Belarusian Hajun project, one of the Belarusian brigades crossed a pontoon bridge over the Neman river as part of the combat readiness inspection. Quoting a Belarusian military channel, the Belarusian media said: "Today Neman, tomorrow Vistula or Dnieper. There’re no barriers for the Belarusian tank crew."

The Neman river runs from the eastern part of Belarus into Lithuania within 7.5 miles of the Polish border. If the Belarusian military executes its threat, the Ukraine war would spill over into Poland and most likely trigger article 4 of the NATO military alliance.

The risk of a Third World War escalated in mid-November after a stray rocket killed two people in the south-eastern Poland village of Przewodow, near the border with war-ravaged Ukraine.

After an emergency NATO meeting, Poland said the missile was "probably an accident" from Ukrainian air defences.

Belarus' war operations have come under closer scrutiny in recent weeks as an increasing number of troops have reportedly amassed at the border with Ukraine - the same tactic Russian forces used before launching a full-blown invasion - raising fears of a potential assault on northwestern Ukraine.

If Belarussia does invade Poland, Poland will in my opinion have the daft buggers for breakfast.

What is wrong with these people????
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I doubt neither Belarus nor Russia are suicidal enough to expand the war to bring NATO into it fully.
My guess is that the threat of Belarus joining Russia in Ukraine has more value than any expansion into Poland as an attack on Poland will bring the US into it directly (there are 10000 US troops in Poland) along with NATO under article 5.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-06-28/poland-biden-troops-nato-6482116.html
 
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MontyB said:
I doubt neither Belarus nor Russia are suicidal enough to expand the war to bring NATO into it fully.
My guess is that the threat of Belarus joining Russia in Ukraine has more value than any expansion into Poland as an attack on Poland will bring the US into it directly (there are 10000 US troops in Poland) along with NATO under article 5.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-06-28/poland-biden-troops-nato-6482116.html
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The military strength of Belarus is almost insignificant and Belarus has til today not invaded Ukraine . Thus why should it do it now ?
An intervention of NATO against Belarus if this invades Ukraine is also very questionable,as such an intervention depends on the consent of Poland and it is highly doubtful that Poland will agree .
 
The following figures are mostly from the NYT article on 30 October ''How Russia pays for war ''.
They indicate that
a The value of the Russian imports has fallen
b that on the other side the value of the Russian exports has increased very strongly
Total trade with China has increased by 64 % and China is Russia's most important trade partner (total trade with China is $ 15 billion ),while the US is not very important ( total trade with Russia is $ 1,5 billion )
For Germany the value was going down by 3 % (mostly imports as the exports to Germany increased by 38 % ) to 4,8 billion USD
The exports to China increased by 98 % , to Spain112 %, to India by 430 % .
Thus, opposite to the alarming articles inspired by the CIA,there are few problems for Russia in the short run,while for the long run the prognoses are uncertain .
Before the invasion 55 % of Russia's oil exports went to the EU and 20 % to China and India, now it is almost the opposite: EU 29 % ,China and India 55%.
When the G7 and Australia announced financial sanctions ,China, India, Indonesia, Turkey ,Argentine, Brazil and Mexico and SA said that they did not join the West .
And, I have my doubts that France will join/continue to join the embargo,as the willingness of the average French to suffer cold and hunger for Ukraine ( a country that most of them can even not indicate on a map ) is very limited .
From what I have read the French oil company TOTAL is /was still drilling in Siberia .
 
lljadw said:
And, I have my doubts that France will join/continue to join the embargo,as the willingness of the average French to suffer cold and hunger for Ukraine ( a country that most of them can even not indicate on a map ) is very limited .
From what I have read the French oil company TOTAL is /was still drilling in Siberia .
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Total Energies:
They no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia/stop purchasing Russian oil; withdraw from the Arctic LNG 2 project.

They have been categorised as "Scaling back operations".

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
 
BritinBritain said:
Now it appears Belorussia are sabre rattling.

Belarusian troops are reportedly moving closer to the Polish border in what appears to be a threat to a NATO ally, independent Belarusian media reported. According to Belarusian Hajun project, one of the Belarusian brigades crossed a pontoon bridge over the Neman river as part of the combat readiness inspection. Quoting a Belarusian military channel, the Belarusian media said: "Today Neman, tomorrow Vistula or Dnieper. There’re no barriers for the Belarusian tank crew."

The Neman river runs from the eastern part of Belarus into Lithuania within 7.5 miles of the Polish border. If the Belarusian military executes its threat, the Ukraine war would spill over into Poland and most likely trigger article 4 of the NATO military alliance.

The risk of a Third World War escalated in mid-November after a stray rocket killed two people in the south-eastern Poland village of Przewodow, near the border with war-ravaged Ukraine.

After an emergency NATO meeting, Poland said the missile was "probably an accident" from Ukrainian air defences.

Belarus' war operations have come under closer scrutiny in recent weeks as an increasing number of troops have reportedly amassed at the border with Ukraine - the same tactic Russian forces used before launching a full-blown invasion - raising fears of a potential assault on northwestern Ukraine.

If Belarussia does invade Poland, Poland will in my opinion have the daft buggers for breakfast.

What is wrong with these people????
Click to expand...

Putin and Lukashenko will have a meeting pretty soon and it depends how desperate Putin is now when the war isn't going according to the plan. Lukashenko will most likely provide Russia with more weapons and ammunition. The Belarusians can theoretically provide with troops, but they will probably stay where they are, but Putin can force Lukashenko to intervene. Regardless what happen, the Belarusian and the Russian maneuvers force the Ukrainians to deploy forces to the north instead of using them somewhere else in Ukraine
 
MontyB said:
Total Energies:
They no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia/stop purchasing Russian oil; withdraw from the Arctic LNG 2 project.

They have been categorised as "Scaling back operations".

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
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The Yale information is very interesting . My thanks .
But ,the danger exists that it gives a distorted picture
1 Most of the firms of the last group ( those who have stopped their activities in Russia ) are US firms, but the importance of the US trade with Russia is not very important :Us trade with Russia is only 10 % of Chinese trade with Russia .
2 Are conspicuously absent from the list of 1000 firms are those from Indonesia, India, Iran, Turkey, Argentine, Brazil, Mexico, SA , Romania,....
3 There are countless western firms in these countries which give them the opportunity to do indirectly business with Russia .
Example :Germany still exported for some 1 billion Euro to Russia in October ,but till November it exported for some 1,2 billion Euro to Iran and no one can say that the Iranian firms did not export a big part of this 1,2 billion to Russia . Iranian firms are now entering the German market .
The German exports to Turkey had (til September ) a value of 2,4 billion Euro and here also we may assume that a lot of it finished in Russia .
The German trade with Russia has decreased ..with some 3 %,but the value of the German imports to Russia has increased by 38 %
4 About Total : on August 24 Le Monde attacked Total because it was still operating in Russia and Total promised that this would stop at the end of the year .But no one should trust promises from French firms or politicians . See The Falklands, Libya, Iraq. Italy is not better .
 
lljadw said:
The Yale information is very interesting . My thanks .
But ,the danger exists that it gives a distorted picture
1 Most of the firms of the last group ( those who have stopped their activities in Russia ) are US firms, but the importance of the US trade with Russia is not very important :Us trade with Russia is only 10 % of Chinese trade with Russia .
2 Are conspicuously absent from the list of 1000 firms are those from Indonesia, India, Iran, Turkey, Argentine, Brazil, Mexico, SA , Romania,....
3 There are countless western firms in these countries which give them the opportunity to do indirectly business with Russia .
Example :Germany still exported for some 1 billion Euro to Russia in October ,but till November it exported for some 1,2 billion Euro to Iran and no one can say that the Iranian firms did not export a big part of this 1,2 billion to Russia . Iranian firms are now entering the German market .
The German exports to Turkey had (til September ) a value of 2,4 billion Euro and here also we may assume that a lot of it finished in Russia .
The German trade with Russia has decreased ..with some 3 %,but the value of the German imports to Russia has increased by 38 %
4 About Total : on August 24 Le Monde attacked Total because it was still operating in Russia and Total promised that this would stop at the end of the year .But no one should trust promises from French firms or politicians . See The Falklands, Libya, Iraq. Italy is not better .
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Looking at that list it seems that the only sector still exporting at full pace to Russia is the cosmetics industry which is just meaningless vanity crap, I think Ukraine would be quite OK with Putin sending his troops armed with lip gloss and botox.
 
MontyB said:
Looking at that list it seems that the only sector still exporting at full pace to Russia is the cosmetics industry which is just meaningless vanity crap, I think Ukraine would be quite OK with Putin sending his troops armed with lip gloss and botox.
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I would say that the only sector in western countries that is still exporting at full pace to Russia is the cosmetics industry, but,as the whole western export to Russia before the war was inferior to that of the other regions, the effect of the western embargo on Russia is more than questionable.The Russian economy is not collapsing because of this embargo and there are no proofs that without this embargo Ukraine would have been conquered .
What is essential for Russia is not its imports (= western exports ) but its exports .Russia is the biggest gas exporter in the world :200 billion cubic meter, US 150 billion .
If other countries stopped to buy Russian gas, oil,coal, Russia would be in big trouble,but the world economy needs Russian oil,coal,gas .
Western Europe is depending on Russian gas,coal, oil : last year 40 % of its gas came from Russia and other sources (Qatar ) can not replace Russia .
Germany is already in very big problems after it not stopped the import of Russian gas, but decreased this import . Chrupalla (one of the leaders of the AfD ) proposed to buy Iranian gas if there is not enough Russian gas,the Greens !! now propose to reactivate the domestic coal industry,while a few years ago they wanted to stop it totally .
The UK will build 2 more nuclear plants, but this will not solve the problems .
The situation in Austria, Italy, France, Belgium is also very serious .If there is a harsh winter, a catastrophe is not looming but is inevitable .
We had a week of real winter and already there are very big problems ,what will happen if we have a real winter during three months ?
 
From the ARD (German TV ) of today
Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency for Electricity ,Gas,Telecommunications,Post and Railway gave the following figures about how the Germans were heating themselves

51 % of the Germans used gas 51 % ! the importance of gas can not be exaggerated
20 % used oil
0,5 % coal ( I think that this is an underestimation as there are a lot of people in the former DDR who still use brown coal as heating .)
3 % renewable energy as solar energy
4 % use electricity
4 % use wood and pellet wood
18 % use ''Fernwärme " which is heating by warm water,especially in the cities
Müller said also the following :
we had 2/3 weeks (early ) winter ,this caused no alarm , but this weather, cold ,should not last during January and February .
This means that if there is a harsh and long winter in Germany, the willingness from the Germans to support sanctions against Russia and to support Ukraine,will be very quickly exhausted .
And if this happens in Germany, the rest of Europe will follow .
The German government said,very optimistically,that the gas depots are full for 80/90 %,but they add that ,notwithstanding this, people should use gas,etc, very economically .
 
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The West has done the same. Didn't Marilyn Monroe visit Korea during the Korean war?

Robin Williams went to Afghanistan, not sure if he went to Iraq

Musicians were visiting the troops during the Second World War too, but none of them were in a "Creative Brigade." Glenn Miller died during a visit in Europe if I remember correctly.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The West has done the same. Didn't Marilyn Monroe visit Korea during the Korean war?

Robin Williams went to Afghanistan, not sure if he went to Iraq

Musicians were visiting the troops during the Second World War too, but none of them were in a "Creative Brigade." Glenn Miller died during a visit in Europe if I remember correctly.
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Yeah my bet is that these ones will be plugging holes on the front line by the end of the week.
 
The UK has announced a fresh supply of hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition as part of its package of defensive aid for 2023, under a £250 million contract.

Mr Sunak urged the other JEF nations to sustain or boost their current offers and to provide Kyiv with more air defence systems, artillery and armoured vehicles.

He said there could be no peace talks until Russia withdraws from areas of Ukraine it has occupied.

“Until they have withdrawn from conquered territory, there can and should be no real negotiation,” said Mr Sunak.

Déjà vu, Very similar to what Neville Chamberlain said when Germany invaded Poland and look what happened there.

There's an old saying 'If you want to know the future, look to the past
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
A Russian suggest to nuke Yellowstone National Park and the supervolcano located there. I have heard them threaten to do this before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXHLe2LJ9FI
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It shows just how comically retarded the Russians are, it is very "Bond villianesque"

For a start there is very little chance a nuke would activate Yellowstone so the Americans would probably prefer Russians shoot at it rather than a populated city and secondly it really doesn't matter what the Russians fire one at, the response will involve a US retaliatory strike into western Russia wiping out 80% of the Russian population.



BritinBritain said:
The UK has announced a fresh supply of hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition as part of its package of defensive aid for 2023, under a £250 million contract.

Mr Sunak urged the other JEF nations to sustain or boost their current offers and to provide Kyiv with more air defence systems, artillery and armoured vehicles.

He said there could be no peace talks until Russia withdraws from areas of Ukraine it has occupied.

“Until they have withdrawn from conquered territory, there can and should be no real negotiation,” said Mr Sunak.

Déjà vu, Very similar to what Neville Chamberlain said when Germany invaded Poland and look what happened there.

There's an old saying 'If you want to know the future, look to the past
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It seems the Germans are never going to send them MBTs so maybe UK and France should look to fill that role but I imagine ammunition is a priority, at some stage re-equipping the airforce is going to be needed as well.

I think he is wrong about negotiations though, there is no reason the fighting has to stop while negotiations are taking place but I agree a ceasefire while Russia is holding Ukrainian territory should be avoided.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
A Russian suggest to nuke Yellowstone National Park and the supervolcano located there. I have heard them threaten to do this before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXHLe2LJ9FI
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Such nonsense is also told by western journalists :with as source the RUSI they said that Russia planned to conquer Ukraine in 10 days ,something everyone knows was impossible .
The imbeciles from our media are as stupid as the imbeciles from the Russian media .
 
If one looks at the biography of Sivkov (the author of the stupid threats ),one knows enough :he was only looking for some publicity .
An other one ,Sergei Markov,proposed to nuke London ,also looking for publicity .
 
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