Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[MontyB]

So if the inflation doesn't have anything to do with the economy, so why do you bring it up if the inflation is irrelevant ?

The inflation is a part of it so is the price of consumer goods, the policy rate, which dictate the interest for the consumers when they are loaning for buying a home or a car. The real measurement for how an economy is working is how the companies are investing.

Another indicator for the economy is to look at car sales. If people are worried about the future, they don't buy new cars. They don't buy new cars if they are worried about being unemployed

I get his argument and it is somewhat valid, we can't argue the the Russian economy is doomed because inflation has hit 12% while ignoring other countries who have higher rates.
The one saving grace for the Russian economy is the fact that it is somewhat of a false economy, things like the balance of payments figures always look good when you can only export but once you run out of raw materials and have import things turn to custard fast.
The ruble is only holding its value because it is isolated and being artificially propped up, it is destroying its own gas market by trying to punish the west and restricting it to 20% of its prewar volumes but in doing so it is forcing the west to alternatives that they won't return from once it is over.

The next stage will probably be a ban on insuring ships carrying Russian oil which will significantly drive up its costs (UK and EU have already proposed this).

Over all these sanctions need time to work but once they do they will cause long term damage to the Russian economy.

 

[MontyB]

Ukraine gets the Patriot SAM system, but how many launchers, they cannot have them all over Ukraine.

My guess is that they will go to Kiev, Lviv and Odessa allowing units from there to support other areas, the big problem will be the supply of missiles.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

My guess is that they will go to Kiev, Lviv and Odessa allowing units from there to support other areas, the big problem will be the supply of missiles.

I think the Ukrainians need something similar as the Israeli Iron Dome system, a cheaper system that can handle multiple targets.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I get his argument and it is somewhat valid, we can't argue the the Russian economy is doomed because inflation has hit 12% while ignoring other countries who have higher rates.
The one saving grace for the Russian economy is the fact that it is somewhat of a false economy, things like the balance of payments figures always look good when you can only export but once you run out of raw materials and have import things turn to custard fast.
The ruble is only holding its value because it is isolated and being artificially propped up, it is destroying its own gas market by trying to punish the west and restricting it to 20% of its prewar volumes but in doing so it is forcing the west to alternatives that they won't return from once it is over.

The next stage will probably be a ban on insuring ships carrying Russian oil which will significantly drive up its costs (UK and EU have already proposed this).

Over all these sanctions need time to work but once they do they will cause long term damage to the Russian economy.

Yes, but I didn't say anything about the inflation, and he brought up the inflation to say the inflation is irrelevant. The inflation is a part of the economy, but so are other things as well.

 

[MontyB]

I think the Ukrainians need something similar as the Israeli Iron Dome system, a cheaper system that can handle multiple targets.

I imagine that would be the better option but Israel won't play ball and hand it over.

There are a number of countries who's reticence to support Ukraine in any tangible way may backfire in the long run, Saudi Arabia springs immediately to mind.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I imagine that would be the better option but Israel won't play ball and hand it over.

There are a number of countries who's reticence to support Ukraine in any tangible way may backfire in the long run, Saudi Arabia springs immediately to mind.

I read a few months ago and I shall try to find it again, India is now questioning the quality of the Russian military gear they are buying

 

[lljadw]

So if the inflation doesn't have anything to do with the economy, so why do you bring it up if the inflation is irrelevant ?

The inflation is a part of it so is the price of consumer goods, the policy rate, which dictate the interest for the consumers when they are loaning for buying a home or a car. The real measurement for how an economy is working is how the companies are investing.

Another indicator for the economy is to look at car sales. If people are worried about the future, they don't buy new cars. They don't buy new cars if they are worried about being unemployed

1 I was not the first to bring it up
2 I am saying that you can't use inflation rates to prove that the economy is going down :there are economists who claim that a ''small '' inflation is necessary .
3 There are also a lot of claims that the politicians are manipulating the inflation figures and give a too low figure . For obvious reasons .
4 The importance of car sales is much exaggerated :it is not because people are worried about the future that the future will be bad .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

1 I was not the first to bring it up
2 I am saying that you can't use inflation rates to prove that the economy is going down :there are economists who claim that a ''small '' inflation is necessary .
3 There are also a lot of claims that the politicians are manipulating the inflation figures and give a too low figure . For obvious reasons .
4 The importance of car sales is much exaggerated :it is not because people are worried about the future that the future will be bad .

Yes, you brought it up or you don't remember what you or the others on your account write here? I said the Russian economy is going down and you began to talk about inflation.

People hesitate to buy new cars or homes if they are worried about their own economy.

 

[BritinBritain]

I have just read that Putin is readying a second nuclear weapon threatening to launch against London, if he does I would assume Moscow would be hit so hard from not only British nuclear carrying submarines, but also from NATO, Moscow would cease to exist. Surely he's not that crazy, or is he?

I have also read that some of his officers have been advising him to launch against London.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I have just read that Putin is readying a second nuclear weapon threatening to launch against London, if he does I would assume Moscow would be hit so hard from not only British nuclear carrying submarines, but also from NATO, Moscow would cease to exist. Surely he's not that crazy, or is he?

I have also read that some of his officers have been advising him to launch against London.

I doubt he dares to do it to any NATO country when they are under the NATO's nuclear umbrella. Nukes are political weapons for deterrence. Putin isn't that mad, he is pretty rational considering his Russian mind frame.

Russia has used C and R weapons in the recent past and there is a greater danger he is authorize the use of those weapons against Ukraine

 

[lljadw]

Yes, you brought it up or you don't remember what you or the others on your account write here? I said the Russian economy is going down and you began to talk about inflation.

People hesitate to buy new cars or homes if they are worried about their own economy.

There is no proof for the claims that the Russian economy is going down .
Besides : what is going down ?
The connection between buying new cars and worrying /or not about the future of the economy is also questionable .
There are other reasons to not buy new cars or homes than the fear that in the next future the economy will go down : people who work for the government have not to fear for their job .
Other reasons can be the policy of the government to prevent people to buy new cars,as is happening in Belgium,or the increase of taxes which result in people having less money to buy a new car .Or the belief (imposed by the media ) that to buy a car is something very bad for the environment .Or the decision of the government to increase the price of a car very strongly so that it can be afforded only by rich people .
The increase or decrease of the number of new cars has not much to do with the expectations about the economy, even not much with the present situation of the economy .
People forget too easily that in Western Europe the government takes away more than 50 % of the earnings of the population and a big part of their possessions .

 

[MontyB]

Yes, you brought it up or you don't remember what you or the others on your account write here? I said the Russian economy is going down and you began to talk about inflation.

People hesitate to buy new cars or homes if they are worried about their own economy.

Just as an aside, I understand your point regarding consumer confidence and the perceived state of the economy but I am not sure it is inflation currently slowing up the Russian car market as much as it is a shortage of modern technology, airbags, abs etc.

 

[MontyB]

I have just read that Putin is readying a second nuclear weapon threatening to launch against London, if he does I would assume Moscow would be hit so hard from not only British nuclear carrying submarines, but also from NATO, Moscow would cease to exist. Surely he's not that crazy, or is he?

I have also read that some of his officers have been advising him to launch against London.

Unless Russia itself is invaded he isn't going to push the button and I suspect someone would put a bullet into his skull long before the situation got so bad that Russia was about to be invaded.

I honestly think the west should largely ignore these silly threats and use them as justification for increasing support to Ukraine up to and including long range missiles and troops for rear garrison work to free up Ukrainian troops and secure the Ukraine-Belarus border.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Just as an aside, I understand your point regarding consumer confidence and the perceived state of the economy but I am not sure it is inflation currently slowing up the Russian car market as much as it is a shortage of modern technology, airbags, abs etc.

The inflation's only contribution to car and house sales is how it makes it more expensive for people to loan money to buy cars or houses.

The Russian industry is suffering from shortages when their supplies from West is shrinking. They try to find other suppliers of these and have found a few, but they can't replace all of them.

Sanctions and how investors have left Russia is slowly hurting the Russian economy. To be out of Swift is contributing to the economy is going down

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

There is no proof for the claims that the Russian economy is going down .
Besides : what is going down ?
The connection between buying new cars and worrying /or not about the future of the economy is also questionable .
There are other reasons to not buy new cars or homes than the fear that in the next future the economy will go down : people who work for the government have not to fear for their job .
Other reasons can be the policy of the government to prevent people to buy new cars,as is happening in Belgium,or the increase of taxes which result in people having less money to buy a new car .Or the belief (imposed by the media ) that to buy a car is something very bad for the environment .Or the decision of the government to increase the price of a car very strongly so that it can be afforded only by rich people .
The increase or decrease of the number of new cars has not much to do with the expectations about the economy, even not much with the present situation of the economy .
People forget too easily that in Western Europe the government takes away more than 50 % of the earnings of the population and a big part of their possessions .

I disagree with what you are saying

https://www.hhs.se/en/about-us/news...ons/2022/the-bleak-economic-future-of-russia/

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Unless Russia itself is invaded he isn't going to push the button and I suspect someone would put a bullet into his skull long before the situation got so bad that Russia was about to be invaded.

I honestly think the west should largely ignore these silly threats and use them as justification for increasing support to Ukraine up to and including long range missiles and troops for rear garrison work to free up Ukrainian troops and secure the Ukraine-Belarus border.

Do you think Russian and Belarus will attack Ukraine?

 

[MontyB]

Do you think Russian and Belarus will attack Ukraine?

I wouldn't be surprised if they tried...
This is why I think Belarus should be given an ultimatum that if they enter the war (which includes allowing Russia to use its territory) then they will be seen as a co-belligerent and Ukraine's allies will react.

I agree with this:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12...stability-nato-needs-to-intervene-in-ukraine/

Only I don't believe it should just be NATO, the western aligned world should be ready to intervene.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I wouldn't be surprised if they tried...
This is why I think Belarus should be given an ultimatum that if they enter the war (which includes allowing Russia to use its territory) then they will be seen as a co-belligerent and Ukraine's allies will react.

I agree with this:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12...stability-nato-needs-to-intervene-in-ukraine/

Only I don't believe it should just be NATO, the western aligned world should be ready to intervene.

If Belarus allows a new attack from its territory it will allow Ukraine to attack targets in Belarus and Ukraine should attack them if they do.

How will the Belarusian react to it when Lukashenko faced a lot of protests after the latest election in Belarus. It might also increase the amount of Belarusians joining the Belarusians fighting on the Ukrainian side.

I agree with NATO should make it clear for Lukashenko if they intervene in the war NATO intervenes as well

 

[lljadw]

I disagree with what you are saying

https://www.hhs.se/en/about-us/news...ons/2022/the-bleak-economic-future-of-russia/

That in Western Europe the government takes more than 50 % of the earnings of the people ( VAT included or not ) is a fact :Tax Freedom Day in Belgium is now 14 July ,which means that till 14 July people work for the government .
That the economic future of Russia is bleak is not the same as that the Russian economy is going down .There are no indications for the claim that the Russian economy is going down .
And ''the economic future of Russia being bleak ''is possible, but also totally meaningless ,as no one can predict the future ,and :what is the economic future ?The situation of the Russian economy in 2023 or 2024 pr 2025,etc ..?The only thing one can say is that and Russia and the West are hurt by the Western refusal to buy Russian goods (Russia did not refuse to sell goods to the West ),but there is no proof that Russia is more hurt than the West. IMO the opposite is more plausible .No one knows the importance of the trade with the West for the Russian economy and no one knows how much the Russians have replaced the partial loss of the trade with the West by increasing their trade with the rest of the world .Western Europe and the US no longer dominate te world economically .
The article you are citing is talking about the impact in the long run ,but no one cares about the long run ,as in the long run,we are all dead .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

That in Western Europe the government takes more than 50 % of the earnings of the people ( VAT included or not ) is a fact :Tax Freedom Day in Belgium is now 14 July ,which means that till 14 July people work for the government .
That the economic future of Russia is bleak is not the same as that the Russian economy is going down .There are no indications for the claim that the Russian economy is going down .
And ''the economic future of Russia being bleak ''is possible, but also totally meaningless ,as no one can predict the future ,and :what is the economic future ?The situation of the Russian economy in 2023 or 2024 pr 2025,etc ..?The only thing one can say is that and Russia and the West are hurt by the Western refusal to buy Russian goods (Russia did not refuse to sell goods to the West ),but there is no proof that Russia is more hurt than the West. IMO the opposite is more plausible .No one knows the importance of the trade with the West for the Russian economy and no one knows how much the Russians have replaced the partial loss of the trade with the West by increasing their trade with the rest of the world .Western Europe and the US no longer dominate te world economically .
The article you are citing is talking about the impact in the long run ,but no one cares about the long run ,as in the long run,we are all dead .

Nobody expects the sanctions will be working in the short terms. All countries are dependent on each other economically and the Russian economy is not an exception. Their industry (not all of it) is dependent on supplies from other countries like so many other countries will be facing issues to get what they need. Being out of Swift hurts them, the Russians are trying to save it with demanding all others to pay in Rubles, will it work? In the short term, yes, but not in the long run.

Must sucks to be in Belgium when you are taxed 50%