Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Interesting, it seems to be a reasonable explanation.
I took a closer look at some of the "accidents" in Russia. They are most likely insurance frauds when several of them don't influence the Russian war effort. Many of these businesses are close to bankruptcy due to the Russian economy is going down.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I suspect there will be a lot of that in the near future.
There is no proof for the claim that the Russian economy is going down : 12 % inflation in Russia is less than in the UK.
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
It appears Putin was planning to invade Japan before deciding to in invade Ukraine. After the hammering Russia got in 1904-1905 it seems Putin hasn't learned a thing about warfare.
Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.
The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.
The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.
Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.
The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.
The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
7
No its not, UK is 10.7% Get your facts right before posting rubbish
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I read that earlier but I am not sure I believe it, Japan has a defence pact with the USA and the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty has an article which commits the US to defend it in the case of attack by a third party, that along with 6 bases on mainland Japan would have made an invasion very risky.
Take into account what we know about the ability of Russian forces and logistics and it would have been an absolute mess.
There is nothing rubbish :the inflation figures depend on how they are calculated .
Besides : my objection remains :an inflation of 12 % does not indicate that the economy is going down, neither is an inflation of 10 % .
You are using semantics .
Besides Russia has no invasion fleet , no transport fleet and no expeditionary forces and there is no need, no benefit for Russia (140 million people ) to invade a country with 1110 million people .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
The problem in analysing this is that statistics are mostly skewed by both sides, on top of that the Russian economy is heavily manipulated by the state.
The ruble is propped up by by forcing companies to buy it, the balance of payments figures only look great because they can't import and can still export oil to dodgy nations like China and India but at a fraction of its value.
At this stage the Russian economy is burning through its fat reserves but given the cost of war and it's reduced income those reserves won't last for ever, as long as the west stays unified there is no way out for the Russian economy.
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
I use the official figures released by by the Bank of England, who have far more knowledge on this subject then you have
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You are free to trust the Bank of England, but a lot of people do not trust official figures .
The Consumer Prices Index gives the following inflation rate
October 21-October 22 9,6 %
November 21-November 22 :9,3 %
Trading Economy gives the following figures
October 210October 22 11,1 %
November 21-November 22 : 10,7 %
Russian official stats ( as unreliable as the British ones ) give for the period of November 21 to November 22 an inflation of 12 % .
But it is possible that it was higher or that it was lower .
October 21-October 22 9,6 %
November 21-November 22 :9,3 %
Trading Economy gives the following figures
October 210October 22 11,1 %
November 21-November 22 : 10,7 %
Russian official stats ( as unreliable as the British ones ) give for the period of November 21 to November 22 an inflation of 12 % .
But it is possible that it was higher or that it was lower .
Maybe, but
1 As I already said : inflation stats prove nothing :US economy collapsed in 1930 while there was almost no inflation .
2 I like to see the proofs for the claims that Russia exported its oil at the fraction of its value .
Belgium OTOH is still importing goods from Russia at a higher price than before the war .
That the Russian reserves will not last for ever is correct, but the war will also not last for ever .
And, what is the value of the Russian oil ?This value is determined by the buyers, not by Russia .
I have found some figures about monthly exports of Russian crude oil (Source is Bloomberg )
2021 September 9 million ton
October 13 million ton
November 13 million ton
2022
September 13,8 million
October 14 million
November 12 million
Transports by pipeline are not included
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Yes but a lot of people buy into conspiracies that are entirely ridiculous.
To trust any information implicitly is foolish but to distrust information because it says something you don't like is equally foolish.
It is not that I don't like the figures of the Bank of England , but :are they reliable ?
I have given two sources who contradict each other...
And, if the figures of the Bank of England are correct, do they prove something ?
Are the figures about the Russian inflation correct ?
And if so, do they indicate that the Russian economy is going down ?
If so ,why would the figures about the UK inflation not prove that the UK economy is going down ?
The inflation in the Netherlands was 14,5 % in September ,but no one said that the Dutch economy was going down .
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
I trust the Bank of England more then you, in fact I'd trust Putin more then you.
Are you an armchair finance expert as well as an armchair General?
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Are the BoEs figures reliable, I expect they are because there would be problems if they weren't.
What may not be accurate is the various interpretations of those figures and interpretations can and usually are skewed by the individual interpreting the numbers.
I remember a poll of Iraqis after the US invasion had results along the lines of:
42% said Iraq was better off without Saddam
40% said it was worse off.
13% weren't sure.
5% didn't answer.
The headline read "majority of Iraqis believe they are better off without Hussein" but there are multiple ways to look at it, for example "53% of Iraqis believe they were better off or were no worse off under Hussein".
How data is read is simply a matter of perspective, progovernment types look for positives and opposition types look for negatives but the data is the same.
The difference between the Russian economy and the rest of the world's economies is:
A. The Russian economy is heavily manipulated by the Kremlin.
B. The rest of the world isn't going to be sanctioned for the next decade or so and will come out of recession naturally.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
So if the inflation doesn't have anything to do with the economy, so why do you bring it up if the inflation is irrelevant ?
The inflation is a part of it so is the price of consumer goods, the policy rate, which dictate the interest for the consumers when they are loaning for buying a home or a car. The real measurement for how an economy is working is how the companies are investing.
Another indicator for the economy is to look at car sales. If people are worried about the future, they don't buy new cars. They don't buy new cars if they are worried about being unemployed
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I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Ukraine gets the Patriot SAM system, but how many launchers, they cannot have them all over Ukraine.