I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The winter will be tough for the Russians if they don't get their logistics to do better, but the Ukrainians will most likely hit their supply lines while the Russians are wasting their muntion on non-military targets
Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?
The winter will be tough for the Russians if they don't get their logistics to do better, but the Ukrainians will most likely hit their supply lines while the Russians are wasting their muntion on non-military targets
The missions and operations you are quoting are mostly civilian missions ,while the few military missions are done by the forces from some members of the EU, and these forces are not EU forces .
Of course, Ursula von der Leyen and associates are claiming that these operations are their operations ,but claims and truth are two different things .
The French forces in Mali are French forces, not the forces of von der Leyen .And, it is Macron who decides their use . It was Macron who decided to withdraw his forces from Mali, not von der Leyen .
The Russian attacks on ''non-military '' targets are not a wast of ammunition,as these attacks hurt not only the Ukrainian civilians, but also the Ukrainian energy supply .
The Allied air attacks in WW 2 and Korea had the same effect and aim .
The attacks on the Ukrainian energy supply and infrastructure have a potential bigger effect than the attacks on Ukrainian military supply lines .And the ''non-military '' targets are easier to hit than mobile military targets .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
There are EU military operations, regardless if you like it or not. There aren't any NATO or EU military. The member states contribute with the military resources
You can send an email or call the EU and complain about it if you want. EU countries have eighteen EU Battlegroups of which two are on high alert for missions abroad. The member countries contribute with the military personnel. NATO countries do exactly the same, there isn't a NATO military, the member countries contribute with the military forces.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The attacks don't reduce the Ukrainian armed forces ability to conduct military operations. The attacks is aimed at the power grid and only civilians will be hurt by it.
About the help of the EU/NATO for Ukraine,if Austria and Hungary refuse the passage through their countries of military convoys to Ukraine ,everything has to go through southern Poland and Warsaw is farther from Mariupol than Bucharest .
I doubt that Poland can give Ukraine any serious military help,and Germany can be excluded as the Bundeswehr has an enormous shortage of ammunition ( source : ARD from today ).Ukraine knows that it can not trust the French, thus the only European country that is'' willing'' ,better forced, to send military materials to Ukraine, is the UK .
And it is doubtful that this ''willingness '' will last,as a new PM would probably be compelled by his own party and by the dissatisfied electors to take a more neutral position .
Thus,everything depends on the man in the Oval Office of the White House and on the new majority in the House of Representatives .
And this is not very reassuring for the Ukrainians .
I doubt that Poland can give Ukraine any serious military help,and Germany can be excluded as the Bundeswehr has an enormous shortage of ammunition ( source : ARD from today ).Ukraine knows that it can not trust the French, thus the only European country that is'' willing'' ,better forced, to send military materials to Ukraine, is the UK .
And it is doubtful that this ''willingness '' will last,as a new PM would probably be compelled by his own party and by the dissatisfied electors to take a more neutral position .
Thus,everything depends on the man in the Oval Office of the White House and on the new majority in the House of Representatives .
And this is not very reassuring for the Ukrainians .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Not strictly true as supplies can be shipped through Slovakia or Romania via the port at Constanta, if the Romanians wanted to make Russian life difficult they could open up Constanta to NATO shipping which would also put some pressure on Turkiye to allow passage of warships for let's say "exercises"
Turkey has decided to remain neutral and not to make an enemy of Russia .And Constanta can be used only if Turkey consents to the passage through the Dardanelles .
Slovakia has no border with Romania, everything has to go through Hungary and Hungary will set conditions .Passage through Serbia is very unlikely as there is a strong pro-Russian sentiment in Serbia which is not a member of the EU/Nato .
The shortest supply line remains the passage through Poland,but the fact that Poland has only a small border with Ukraine is making things very difficult .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Umm Slovakia has three border crossings with Ukraine.
There are three land routes into Ukraine from the west utilising only NATO countries:
1. Germany - Poland - Ukraine
2. Germany - Czech republic - Slovakia - Ukraine
3. Greece - Bulgaria - Romania - Ukraine.
Greece, Bulgaria and Romania are NATO members they can be used as an overland route.
As such supplies can be flown into Romania, Slovakia or Poland without the need for neutral countries permission and driven across the border into Ukraine.
The border length of Ukraine with Slovakia is only 92 km with ONE road and ONE
rail checkpoint .
I doubt that the road/rail infrastructure of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania is sufficient strong for the passage of big transports .The same for the harbours and airfields .
Besides,tanks and artillery can not be transported by air .
Than there is the question if Ukrainian rail is connected with the railways of its western neighbours and how .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Strange I see 3 connections, a rail in the south, road and rail in the centre (looks to be the main one) and road in the north.
Are you sure about tanks and artillery not being air transportable?
This says otherwise...
https://www.618tacc.amc.af.mil/News...ce-c-17s-deliver-abrams-tanks-to-afghanistan/
https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2022-09-28/himars-sweden-latvia-ukraine-russia-7501316.html
| M109A6 on a plane | |
The track guage between Ukraine and Slovakia is different but as they already have rail transport between the two countries you would assume the have found a way to resolve this issue.
From Wiki
Border checkpoints between Slovakia and Ukraine
Road
Uzhorod ( Ukraine ) -the Slovakian checkpoint is a village of 250 inhabitants : only motorized traffic,thus no place for foot infantry
Mali-Bereznyi (Ukraine ) - Ubla (Slovakia ) only for vehicles with a weight lower than 3,5 tons . Thus not usable
Rail
Pavlone-(Ukraine )Mat'ovce (Slovakia ) - freight only ,thus no military personnel
Chop (Ukraine) has only two platforms -Cierna nad tisou (Slovakia )
About tanks and artillery :Ukraine needs thousands of them ,but the US Air Force can not transport thousands of tanks,artillery and their spare parts and ammunition . And when they arrive at the airports (if these are still operational ) they are still not at the front and to go ,example from Kiev to Mariupol,they must be transported by rail .
Besides : are there any reliable figures of the number of US aircraft that were going to Ukrainian airfield during this war,risking to be destroyed and what was their loading ?
For the checkpoints : there is one by road for motorized traffic only and by rail there is also only one for freight only .
This means that the thousands of Ukrainian military who had their instruction in UK could return to Ukraine only through Poland .They can not go from Poland to Romania, unless Hungary admits their passage .
And about Romania : its support to Ukraine is not without limits : the Romanian foreign minister pleaded for a more neutral policy,and he is sill minister of foreign affairs .
The US promised $ 52 billion of support (meaningless figure ) of which only $ 15 billion for weapons and equipment .
2000 Javelins were promised : how many arrived ?
6000 AT-4 anti-armor systems were promised : idem
20 million rounds of small arms ammunition : idem
Did the US promise grain and other food ( if not :why ? ) and how many food has arrived ?
2000 Javelins were promised : how many arrived ?
6000 AT-4 anti-armor systems were promised : idem
20 million rounds of small arms ammunition : idem
Did the US promise grain and other food ( if not :why ? ) and how many food has arrived ?
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
As far as I know no US transport is going to Ukraine (this may or may not be accurate as they don't notify me about all flights or any in fact) it is going to Poland mostly although there have been flights into Romania as they have begun upgrading facilities at a couple of bases (Campia Turzii and Mihail Kogalniceanu air base), I am also pretty sure elements of the 101st Airborne didn't take a train from Poland to reach Romania.
Why the hell would anyone send grain to Ukraine, it would be like sending ice to Antarctica or sand to Saudi Arabia.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I am trying to understand one aspect here, Bakhmut, why are the Russians so fixated on taking a rather meaningless town with bugger all strategic value and why do the Ukrainians always seem on the verge of collapse there yet they never seem to reinforce it sufficiently.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
I have been thinking about it and it seems to be more a prestige thing than a rational military decision. It's the Russian Wagner group fighting there and it can increase the owner of the group's political position in Moscow. The Regular Russian military hasn't completely failed, but they have been losing their face during this war. The Wagner group seems to be the only one that can give the Russians some sort of success.
The combat around Bakhmut seems to be an artillery duel and the Russians have more artillery than the Ukrainians. I have been watching the development north of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are moving forward there and can maybe cut of the Russian supply routes toward Bakhmut.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
The problem is that it seems like the death ride of the Wagner group so I am not sure what Prigozhin thinks he will get from capturing a meaningless town in the middle of a giant paddock but the result seems to be that the Wagner group will be relegated from well trained mercenaries to a diseased prisoner colony.
You are underestimating the impact of the war on the harvest in Ukraine :millions have left Ukraine,thus less people for the harvest,transport are disorganized,....
About US transports : supplies in Poland are not supplies in Ukraine ,these supplies must be transported by rail to Ukraine and the big question ( of course hidden by our media ) is : what is the capacity of the Polish and Ukrainian railways ?
US have sent 142 howitzers,how many of these have arrived at the front ?And what about their ammunition ?
France and Germany also have sent howitzers :how are these going to Ukraine ?
About the ( some 1000 ) soldiers of 101 AB who are now in Romania : had/have the US the needed aircraft to transport 1000 men and their equipment to Romania and are the Romanian airfields equipped to receive them and how are these men and their equipment leaving these airfields ?
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
If I am speculating wildly, it might be a power struggle in Kreml right now. The regular military has lost its credibility and Prigozhin views this as his chance to get some political credibility.
Putin has been quite silent recently, I wonder why
A good source for the Ukrainian food situation is FEWS ( although it is affiliated to USAID ).
From Famine Early Warning Systems Network Ukraine Targeted Analysis October 22 2022
The future of Ukrainian Grain Exports and global energy markets remains uncertain
Road and Rail Infrastructure have suffered $ 100 billion damages
In 2022 Ukrainian GDP will decline by 35%
There are millions of displaced persons .
In September 2022 6,9 million tons of agricultural commodities were exported ,which is 40 % lower than in September 2021 .
From the same source
Inflation since the start of the war was in August 24 %
Projected production of wheat in 2022/2023 was 20 million tons ,in 2021/2022 it was 33 million tons
For sunflower seed
2021/2022 17 million ton
2022-2023 10 million tons
From Famine Early Warning Systems Network Ukraine Targeted Analysis October 22 2022
The future of Ukrainian Grain Exports and global energy markets remains uncertain
Road and Rail Infrastructure have suffered $ 100 billion damages
In 2022 Ukrainian GDP will decline by 35%
There are millions of displaced persons .
In September 2022 6,9 million tons of agricultural commodities were exported ,which is 40 % lower than in September 2021 .
From the same source
Inflation since the start of the war was in August 24 %
Projected production of wheat in 2022/2023 was 20 million tons ,in 2021/2022 it was 33 million tons
For sunflower seed
2021/2022 17 million ton
2022-2023 10 million tons