Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

MontyB said:
Should it matter?
Russia started this mess and they have not held back from attacking Ukraine from both Russia and Belarus, I am comfortable with Ukraine responding to attacks, troop movements and supply depot's within range of their guns.
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It depends on how the Americans react to it. They didn't provide Ukrainians with HIMARS missiles that can reach the Russian territory, but probably the Ukrainians received those anyway. Ukrainian air force attacked logistical hubs on the Russian side without any major reactions from the Russian. Maybe Russia mobilize if they get their military logistical network hit hard on their side of the border. However, would the Russian conscripts be better than what we have seen thus far? Probably not, but the huge number of troops can cause problems for the Ukrainians. Now I have argue enough with myself.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It depends on how the Americans react to it. They didn't provide Ukrainians with HIMARS missiles that can reach the Russian territory, but probably the Ukrainians received those anyway. Ukrainian air force attacked logistical hubs on the Russian side without any major reactions from the Russian. Maybe Russia mobilize if they get their military logistical network hit hard on their side of the border. However, would the Russian conscripts be better than what we have seen thus far? Probably not, but the huge number of troops can cause problems for the Ukrainians. Now I have argue enough with myself.
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To be fair right now Ukrainian troops could throw a HIMARS missile over the border.
I tend to believe at this stage troop concentrations, ammo dumps, command and control facilities on the Russian side of the border are fair game.

With regards to the threat of Russian mobilization would there be a point as I am not sure Russia has anything to arm or transport them with.
 
MontyB said:
To be fair right now Ukrainian troops could throw a HIMARS missile over the border.
I tend to believe at this stage troop concentrations, ammo dumps, command and control facilities on the Russian side of the border are fair game.

With regards to the threat of Russian mobilization would there be a point as I am not sure Russia has anything to arm or transport them with.
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If I were an Ukrainian commander right now, I would attack Russian targets on their side of the border.

We were quite surprised when we saw the Russians are deploying the old T62, so if they are mobilizing, we can expect to see old T54/55 or even JS tanks and T34/85.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
If I were an Ukrainian commander right now, I would attack Russian targets on their side of the border.

We were quite surprised when we saw the Russians are deploying the old T62, so if they are mobilizing, we can expect to see old T54/55 or even JS tanks and T34/85.
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I wondered that myself but I have been told Russia no longer has any T-34s, T54/55s possibly.
I find it interesting that if Oryx is correct about Russian losses they have lost roughly 67% of their entire operational tank fleet and 34% of their armoured combat vehicle fleet.
Given that since 2008 the largest MBT manufacturer UralVagonZavod has managed less than 200 vehicles a year it will take greater than 6 years to replace current losses.

So there is really no longer a need to mobilize Russia manpower unless Putin intends to send them to war in old Lada's as they no longer have the material to arm or equip them, unless they can beg, borrow or steal crap from North Korea, Iran or China.

Another thing is that I do not agree with the German request that the Russians accept a ceasefire, Russia may want one but Ukraine should avoid it at all costs if they ever want their territory back as a frozen conflict would be a disaster for them as Putin will be back for more once his losses are replaced, I don't know how this ends but I think it is going to have to involve a demilitarized zone and foreign peacekeepers and defence assurances. Basically Russia can not be trusted.
 
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George said:
There was at least one in the "Great Patriotic War" celebration parade...
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I probably should have been clearer, Russia no longer has any in its reserve arsenal, I don't doubt they have a few as monuments and in museums and collections that they could be nationalised for the war effort I guess.
:)
 
Things must be getting quite desperate when Putin is emptying prisons for more manpower, then telling them that if they desert they will be executed. I'd be very inclined to go back into my cell and close the door behind me.
 
Or the Russian get the Chinese version of the T55/54 or the T34. I doubt they (Chinese, North Koreans) want to provide with their latest versions of vehicles.
 
BritinBritain said:
Things must be getting quite desperate when Putin is emptying prisons for more manpower, then telling them that if they desert they will be executed. I'd be very inclined to go back into my cell and close the door behind me.
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True but it is 500000 bullet sponges to throw at the Ukrainians and let's face it does anyone think they will be released after 6 months service.
Essentially if the Ukrainians don't shoot them I am prepared to bet the Russians will.

As a side note we are getting closer to seeing the T34 I guess...
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russ...e_with_70_years_old_zs_82_and_ks_19-4235.html
 
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MontyB said:
At the rate things are going, this time next year we will be seeing Russian cavalry charges.
It really goes to show how much endemic corruption can influence performance.
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Maybe, unless the Russians don't eat their horses first. Their soldiers seem to not get proper food
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It seems Ukrainian forces have entered Luhansk.
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Yeah seen a number of reports about that but at this stage I wouldn't get too excited by it, basically it seems they have moved into the space vacated by the Russians as they have moved back into new defensive lines and that includes a couple of small villages.

Seems it wasn't only the Russians surprised by the counter offensive, it took the Ukrainians by surprise as well...
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...that-ukrainian-troops-amazed-by-rapid-advance
 
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MontyB said:
Yeah seen a number of reports about that but at this stage I wouldn't get too excited by it, basically it seems they have moved into the space vacated by the Russians as they have moved back into new defensive lines and that includes a couple of small villages.

Seems it wasn't only the Russians surprised by the counter offensive, it took the Ukrainians by surprise as well...
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...that-ukrainian-troops-amazed-by-rapid-advance
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I am not surprised to see how successful the Ukrainians are. I think they aren't that good, it's the Russian competence that make Ukrainians achieve more than what themselves expected. (sarcasm)

The entire war has exposed a lot about the Russian military, but it can be dangerous to underestimate them.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I am not surprised to see how successful the Ukrainians are. I think they aren't that good, it's the Russian competence that make Ukrainians achieve more than what themselves expected. (sarcasm)

The entire war has exposed a lot about the Russian military, but it can be dangerous to underestimate them.
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What I can't figure out is how this ends, let's assume Ukraine retakes the Donbas, it still can't or won't enter Russia so the Russians sit on their side of the border indiscriminately firing missiles into Ukraine until it decides to have another go, basically a war without end.

Alternatively Russia mobilises at which point they get a 2 million strong army that it can't equip and off they go again until someone in the Kremlin balances Putin's outlook with a couple of grams of lead behind the ear at which point we hope like hell it is a moderate and ends it and not another hardline lunatic that makes it worse.

Putin really can't end it without anything to show as a success and the Ukrainians are not going to agree to an end with the Russians still in charge of anything that give them a success.
 
Putin mobilize about 300 000 reservists, but it will take some time before they are in Ukraine. They need to be equipped, maybe trained them again, depending on how long ago they went through their conscription. This will be popular among Russians. Especially when they begin to return in body bags
 
MontyB said:
At the rate things are going, this time next year we will be seeing Russian cavalry charges.
It really goes to show how much endemic corruption can influence performance.
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Less corruption would not have changed the military situation .
 
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