Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

lljadw said:
Less corruption would not have changed the military situation .
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree as a more thoroughly equipped and trained Russia should have done better.
The fact that Russian conscripts are spending more time learning to build swimming pools and mansions for the commanding officers than they are how to be soldiers must be affecting battlefield performance.
 
I would say corruption is one of the reason why the Russian performance is quite bad. The majority of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren't conscripts, they are professional soldiers. They aren't well trained, why? Exercises cost a lot of money, but the money have been used for other things than training. Russian communication equipment is really bad, in fact so bad they are using civilian cell phones. They used cell phones during the three wars in Chechnya and in Georgia. So why don't have military grade communication? Russia had years to get military graded comms, corruption again. The bad comms also make it harder for having the air to support the ground. But Russian doctrine focus more on artillery than air support and that doesn't work either.

Another reason for the bad performance? How they use their tanks. Instead of letting the tanks support the infantry, the Russian forces base their MO upon the tanks and it doesn't work against infantry with AT weapons.

I forgot the Russian command structure isn't working well. The centralized command structure doesn't respond well to the changes of the battlefield.
 
Last edited:
So Putin mobilize 300 000. It will take a long time before they appear in Ukraine. That is if the Russians can equip them. We might see Korean T54/55 and T34 after all
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
So Putin mobilize 300 000. It will take a long time before they appear in Ukraine. That is if the Russians can equip them. We might see Korean T54/55 and T34 after all
Click to expand...

I doubt it will take that long to get them to the front as it is unlikely they will receive much in the way of training, they will just be thrown into the meat grinder to stop the Ukrainian push.
It is also highly doubtful the will get 300000, once corruption and nepotism play there role I am guessing maybe 150000 of the ones too dumb or poor to escape will be sent off to soak up Ukrainian bullets.
Then comes fall and winter in a trench in eastern Ukraine with bugger all winter gear, food or heating so by the time spring rolls around about half that 150000 will be frozen solid or missing limbs from frostbite and Ukrainian artillery at which point they will encounter an even larger Ukrainian army with 6 months of training and functioning Western weapons.

Armour wise I suspect Russia will be spending the winter trying to get some more old poptop-ski T72s up and running and rebuilding it's artillery meanwhile the west needs to be sending as much artillery and ordinance as it can (because nothing balances out an extra 300000 Russian like 500000 artillery rounds).
 
MontyB said:
I doubt it will take that long to get them to the front as it is unlikely they will receive much in the way of training, they will just be thrown into the meat grinder to stop the Ukrainian push.
It is also highly doubtful the will get 300000, once corruption and nepotism play there role I am guessing maybe 150000 of the ones too dumb or poor to escape will be sent off to soak up Ukrainian bullets.
Then comes fall and winter in a trench in eastern Ukraine with bugger all winter gear, food or heating so by the time spring rolls around about half that 150000 will be frozen solid or missing limbs from frostbite and Ukrainian artillery at which point they will encounter an even larger Ukrainian army with 6 months of training and functioning Western weapons.

Armour wise I suspect Russia will be spending the winter trying to get some more old poptop-ski T72s up and running and rebuilding it's artillery meanwhile the west needs to be sending as much artillery and ordinance as it can (because nothing balances out an extra 300000 Russian like 500000 artillery rounds).
Click to expand...

I think it will take the Russians months to get them to Ukraine. The interesting part will be how the Russians react when these guys begin to return in body bags. The Russians haven't reacted yet to their losses. But when these regular guys begin to die or being severely wounded, they will begin to react. It will be harder for the Russian government to hide the amount of casualties as well.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think it will take the Russians months to get them to Ukraine. The interesting part will be how the Russians react when these guys begin to return in body bags. The Russians haven't reacted yet to their losses. But when these regular guys begin to die or being severely wounded, they will begin to react. It will be harder for the Russian government to hide the amount of casualties as well.
Click to expand...

I suspect the first draftees will be in Ukraine within 2 weeks if they aren't on the way now.

If Ukraine can contain this lot I think Putin will struggle to implement an extended mobilisation as the next one will be a general mobilisation and I am not sure rich Moskavites will be happy to see their kids heading off to war and the poor won't be enthusiastic about theirs going in place of the rich.
 
MontyB said:
I suspect the first draftees will be in Ukraine within 2 weeks if they aren't on the way now.

If Ukraine can contain this lot I think Putin will struggle to implement an extended mobilisation as the next one will be a general mobilisation and I am not sure rich Moskavites will be happy to see their kids heading off to war and the poor won't be enthusiastic about theirs going in place of the rich.
Click to expand...

The reserves have done their basic military training and it depends on when they were doing their mandatory military training and how good that military training was. Their professional personnel haven't impressed me, I doubt their conscripts are better.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The reserves have done their basic military training and it depends on when they were doing their mandatory military training and how good that military training was. Their professional personnel haven't impressed me, I doubt their conscripts are better.
Click to expand...

Russian basic training seems to consist of putting on a uniform and being pimped out by the base CO as cheap labour and at the end you get the sh*t beaten out of you and you stuff stolen by the seniors, I am not sure that leads to good soldiers but evidence indicates that it creates brutal rapists and looters who run at the first sign of a fight.
 
MontyB said:
Russian basic training seems to consist of putting on a uniform and being pimped out by the base CO as cheap labour and at the end you get the sh*t beaten out of you and you stuff stolen by the seniors, I am not sure that leads to good soldiers but evidence indicates that it creates brutal rapists and looters who run at the first sign of a fight.
Click to expand...

And being drunk or is that the officers? Haha, speaking of which. Do they have enough of officers to command these 300 000? I doubt it. I saw something else, the Russians are taking people without having a military training. It can be good thing actually, they might be better than those with a military training
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
And being drunk or is that the officers? Haha, speaking of which. Do they have enough of officers to command these 300 000? I doubt it. I saw something else, the Russians are taking people without having a military training. It can be good thing actually, they might be better than those with a military training
Click to expand...

I think it is time to recognize that without artillery the Russian military are just a rabble of drunk, stupid thugs, basically they are like a pack of dogs following the big dog (ironic that the Russian big dog is basically a yapping Chihuahua) they all puff themselves up in front of those who can't fight back but cower as soon as someone gives them a kick.

Does it matter if they have enough officers when all you need to become an armoured vehicle crewman is to have seen a car, at this stage I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't plan to line up those 300000 future corpses and match them across the battlefield in the hopes Ukraine runs out of bullets.

What I find most shocking is the complete indifference Putin and the Russian hierarchy have towards the troops they are sending, they just don't care how many die to achieve absolutely nothing and strangely I am growing ever closer to the idea that the "free world" might need to become militarily involved to support Ukraine.

In another interesting twist I saw an article about Russia creating rifle battalions from instructors, it reminded me of the last time a dictator did something similar and they called it Panzer Lehr which performed poorly and died frequently.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-f...ademies-for-the-war-in-ukraine-general-staff/
 
Last edited:
MontyB said:
I think it is time to recognize that without artillery the Russian military are just a rabble of drunk, stupid thugs, basically they are like a pack of dogs following the big dog (ironic that the Russian big dog is basically a yapping Chihuahua) they all puff themselves up in front of those who can't fight back but cower as soon as someone gives them a kick.

Does it matter if they have enough officers when all you need to become an armoured vehicle crewman is to have seen a car, at this stage I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't plan to line up those 300000 future corpses and match them across the battlefield in the hopes Ukraine runs out of bullets.

What I find most shocking is the complete indifference Putin and the Russian hierarchy have towards the troops they are sending, they just don't care how many die to achieve absolutely nothing and strangely I am growing ever closer to the idea that the "free world" might need to become militarily involved to support Ukraine.

In another interesting twist I saw an article about Russia creating rifle battalions from instructors, it reminded me of the last time a dictator did something similar and they called it Panzer Lehr which performed poorly and died frequently.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-f...ademies-for-the-war-in-ukraine-general-staff/
Click to expand...


As is well known, Stalin was no different, he called the Russian people 'Useful idiots,'
he had no problem sending troops to be slaughtered, with one rifle between two or three troops. Its no wonder men of military age are leaving Russia in droves.
 
BritinBritain said:
As is well known, Stalin was no different, he called the Russian people 'Useful idiots,'
he had no problem sending troops to be slaughtered, with one rifle between two or three troops. Its no wonder men of military age are leaving Russia in droves.
Click to expand...

I still don't understand why Putin keeps pushing the nuclear line, I am hoping the US decides to call his bluff on this because it really isn't as scary as he wants to believe.
Maybe the answer is to include a few tactical nukes in Ukraine's next arms delivery.

Basically it sounds as though Putin is quite desperate now with his idiotic referendums and nuclear threats, hopefully this will teach him that there are consequences to starting wars with an inept military.
 
MontyB said:
I still don't understand why Putin keeps pushing the nuclear line, I am hoping the US decides to call his bluff on this because it really isn't as scary as he wants to believe.
Maybe the answer is to include a few tactical nukes in Ukraine's next arms delivery.

Basically it sounds as though Putin is quite desperate now with his idiotic referendums and nuclear threats, hopefully this will teach him that there are consequences to starting wars with an inept military.
Click to expand...

It's a part of the game to threaten the West with nukes. Both NATO and Russia have nukes integrated in their doctrines, Putin is trying to scare NATO to stop providing Ukraine with weapons. However, Putin is desperate and fighting for his life. he cannot give up and survive it. A desperate man can be dangerous, but I think he might use other weapons instead. Russia has used C-weapons against their own people before and the political price for using them is lower than using nukes.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It's a part of the game to threaten the West with nukes. Both NATO and Russia have nukes integrated in their doctrines, Putin is trying to scare NATO to stop providing Ukraine with weapons. However, Putin is desperate and fighting for his life. he cannot give up and survive it. A desperate man can be dangerous, but I think he might use other weapons instead. Russia has used C-weapons against their own people before and the political price for using them is lower than using nukes.
Click to expand...

Agreed but it is time it was made abundantly clear that either will be met in kind, the world cannot allow him to get away with these threats or he will carry on using them to get what wants.

I think rather than just sending Putin a terse email it is time the average Russian learnt that if Putin uses nukes or chemicals in Ukraine then Russia will be receiving the response, see if they are still as enthusiastic about their dear leader once they realise that they are going to pay for his actions.
 
I have been thinking about the mobilization of the Russian reserves. We saw something what can be described as an exodus out of Russia when Putin told them about it. I wonder if these Russian conscripts will run over to the Ukrainians when they arrive in Ukraine.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I have been thinking about the mobilization of the Russian reserves. We saw something what can be described as an exodus out of Russia when Putin told them about it. I wonder if these Russian conscripts will run over to the Ukrainians when they arrive in Ukraine.
Click to expand...

When?

I am seeing reports that some have arrived already.
That said even a couple of million leaving the country is a drop in the bucket.

Every day this war goes on pretty much reinforces my opinion that the west needs to harden it's attitude and responses to Russia and be unequivocal that the Russian use of NBC weapons will be met in kind.
 
MontyB said:
When?

I am seeing reports that some have arrived already.
That said even a couple of million leaving the country is a drop in the bucket.

Every day this war goes on pretty much reinforces my opinion that the west needs to harden it's attitude and responses to Russia and be unequivocal that the Russian use of NBC weapons will be met in kind.
Click to expand...

Have they already? We were speculating about how the Russians would react when their soldiers return in body bags. The reaction hasn't been big yet, but now it might be a bigger reaction when the Russians are sending young conscripts. Do these conscripts want to fight, hard to say. We must wait and see what happens, I suppose.

I agree, NATO should give Ukraine almost whatever they want to hit back even on Russian territory. I am more concerned about C-weapons than of N-weapons.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Have they already? We were speculating about how the Russians would react when their soldiers return in body bags. The reaction hasn't been big yet, but now it might be a bigger reaction when the Russians are sending young conscripts. Do these conscripts want to fight, hard to say. We must wait and see what happens, I suppose.

I agree, NATO should give Ukraine almost whatever they want to hit back even on Russian territory. I am more concerned about C-weapons than of N-weapons.
Click to expand...

So the story goes some have been killed, wounded and captured...
https://english.nv.ua/nation/aresto...r-captured-in-ukraine-president-50273046.html

Others appear to have jumped off the train in Ukraine and taken a cab to the nearest POW collection centre.
https://www.newsweek.com/mobilized-...dier-surrenders-ukraine-war-1746942?piano_t=1

Seems the UK thinks Russia is behind the gas pipeline explosions as well..
Sabotage
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top