Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

The attack on the two pipelines seems odd. The only reason I can see is; "we (who ever we are in this context) can attack other gas pipelines. Especially the one between Norway and Poland.

Btw, it seems the Russians are mobilizing men in the occupied areas of Ukraine as well. That will work well.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The attack on the two pipelines seems odd. The only reason I can see is; "we (who ever we are in this context) can attack other gas pipelines. Especially the one between Norway and Poland.

Btw, it seems the Russians are mobilizing men in the occupied areas of Ukraine as well. That will work well.
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I may be wrong here but as Ukraine has no submarines or equipment that could have done this I think it is safe to say the didn't do it, and we can probably discount the three Baltic States for the same reasons.
Poland, Germany, Norway, Sweden all have the means but no motive.
Only Russia has both means and motive so it isn't hard to see why they are the prime suspects.
 
MontyB said:
I may be wrong here but as Ukraine has no submarines or equipment that could have done this I think it is safe to say the didn't do it, and we can probably discount the three Baltic States for the same reasons.
Poland, Germany, Norway, Sweden all have the means but no motive.
Only Russia has both means and motive so it isn't hard to see why they are the prime suspects.
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I view the whole thing as a warning from Russia. The attacks occur the day after the pipeline between Norway and Poland was done.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I view the whole thing as a warning from Russia. The attacks occur the day after the pipeline between Norway and Poland was done.
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At this stage surely it is sinking in to even the most ardent of Putin's followers that Russia is done, no matter what happens in Ukraine now the fact that they did not collapse in a few days and have fought Russia to standstill is a loss for Russia.
Much like the German invasion of Russia the Russian invasion of Ukraine required a quick solution to win.
Russia has become an international pariah and will remain so for decades to come.
 
George said:
Talk about a major provocation...
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Yeah I think it is really just a matter of time before the west (whether it is NATO or an EU state) gets involved, I would love for the west to come up with a way to secure the Belarus/Ukraine border.
 
MontyB said:
Not sure I agree as a more thoroughly equipped and trained Russia should have done better.
The fact that Russian conscripts are spending more time learning to build swimming pools and mansions for the commanding officers than they are how to be soldiers must be affecting battlefield performance.
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Most of the 200000 men of the Russian invasion army were not conscripts .
And the Russian'' failure'' had an other cause .
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The attack on the two pipelines seems odd. The only reason I can see is; "we (who ever we are in this context) can attack other gas pipelines. Especially the one between Norway and Poland.

Btw, it seems the Russians are mobilizing men in the occupied areas of Ukraine as well. That will work well.
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Only Nordstream one was attacked ,and it was no longer used,as NATO had refused to buy Russian gas .
The whole question is : who benefits from the attacks on the pipelines
 
MontyB said:
I may be wrong here but as Ukraine has no submarines or equipment that could have done this I think it is safe to say the didn't do it, and we can probably discount the three Baltic States for the same reasons.
Poland, Germany, Norway, Sweden all have the means but no motive.
Only Russia has both means and motive so it isn't hard to see why they are the prime suspects.
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To attack a pipeline that is no longer used is not a motive .
The Western governments told us that the import of Russian gas was stopped and that they went to Qatar for gas .
 
MontyB said:
I think it is time to recognize that without artillery the Russian military are just a rabble of drunk, stupid thugs, basically they are like a pack of dogs following the big dog (ironic that the Russian big dog is basically a yapping Chihuahua) they all puff themselves up in front of those who can't fight back but cower as soon as someone gives them a kick.

Does it matter if they have enough officers when all you need to become an armoured vehicle crewman is to have seen a car, at this stage I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't plan to line up those 300000 future corpses and match them across the battlefield in the hopes Ukraine runs out of bullets.

What I find most shocking is the complete indifference Putin and the Russian hierarchy have towards the troops they are sending, they just don't care how many die to achieve absolutely nothing and strangely I am growing ever closer to the idea that the "free world" might need to become militarily involved to support Ukraine.

In another interesting twist I saw an article about Russia creating rifle battalions from instructors, it reminded me of the last time a dictator did something similar and they called it Panzer Lehr which performed poorly and died frequently.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-f...ademies-for-the-war-in-ukraine-general-staff/
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The Allies considered Panzer Lehr as an elite PD .
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I have been thinking about the mobilization of the Russian reserves. We saw something what can be described as an exodus out of Russia when Putin told them about it. I wonder if these Russian conscripts will run over to the Ukrainians when they arrive in Ukraine.
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The 300000 men that are mobilized are NOT conscripts but reservists ,50 % of them are former conscripts ,the rest former volunteers .
Half of the Russian armed forces ( 1,2 million ) are conscripts ( 600000 ) and the rest are volunteers (600000 ) .
Russia has not the means (financial and manpower ) for an armed force of 1,2 million of volunteers .
 
lljadw said:
The Allies considered Panzer Lehr as an elite PD .
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To be fair the Allies also saw every German tank as a Tiger and rated SS divisions as elite

lljadw said:
The 300000 men that are mobilized are NOT conscripts but reservists ,50 % of them are former conscripts ,the rest former volunteers .
Half of the Russian armed forces ( 1,2 million ) are conscripts ( 600000 ) and the rest are volunteers (600000 ) .
Russia has not the means (financial and manpower ) for an armed force of 1,2 million of volunteers .
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And many of them look like they should be in retirement homes not trenches...


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...e-amid-claims-Moscow-struggling-manpower.html

Still it may be a necessity as much of the equipment they are giving them is about the same age.
 
lljadw said:
Only Nordstream one was attacked ,and it was no longer used,as NATO had refused to buy Russian gas .
The whole question is : who benefits from the attacks on the pipelines
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Every report I have seen to-date says both pipelines are damaged and leaking.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Sweden has a new government and Ukraine may get the Archer artillery system and the SAM system R-70.
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I see they have filled out the NATO application now as well although I have no idea how that will work as I doubt NATO will be keen to take on an existing war.
Perhaps a NATO lite where article 5 isn't applicable but allows them access to NATO equipment, training and intelligence (which they seem to be getting already), I still would like to see NATO troops securing the Ukraine/Belarus border though.
 
George said:
Rusty AK being issued...https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...oldiers-troops-Ukraine-war-invasion-latest-vn
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No matter how many times I see things like that or the Ukrainian successes on the battlefield I still struggle to buy into it fully, there is still this nagging voice in my head that says the Russians can't be this bad and Ukraine inevitably must collapse when Russia brings its best troops, airpower and armour to bear.
Yet here we are seven months into this thing and nothing but one Russian clusterf**k after another, I struggle to believe a handful of HIMARS and 100 M777's is enough to halt the second largest military on earth.
 
MontyB said:
Every report I have seen to-date says both pipelines are damaged and leaking.
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I googled Nordstream 2 and I read
''The construction of NS2 started in 2011,it was completed in September 2021,but has still not entered service .''
Owner is Gazprom ( for 51 % ).
In April 2021 75 % of the Germans supported the construction of Nordstream 2 ,while the US and their allies in Europe were against it,for the reasons we know .
The import of Russian gas has been stopped by the EU,thus why should Russia destroy an unused pipeline .
 
lljadw said:
I googled Nordstream 2 and I read
''The construction of NS2 started in 2011,it was completed in September 2021,but has still not entered service .''
Owner is Gazprom ( for 51 % ).
In April 2021 75 % of the Germans supported the construction of Nordstream 2 ,while the US and their allies in Europe were against it,for the reasons we know .
The import of Russian gas has been stopped by the EU,thus why should Russia destroy an unused pipeline .
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The same could be asked of European countries, why would they destroy a gas pipeline that was unused?
Europe is in for a rough winter without the gas so anything coming through those pipes would help calm the population and maintain political stability and who would benefit from political instability?

Not European governments, not the UK and certainly not the USA, this is Russia's one shot at breaking European political resolve as by next winter no one will care so to me that is their motive.

This is a cut and paste of a friend's email, it seems a little conspiratorial to me but he is a pipeline engineer for a local energy company here.
Something to consider, there were two explosions detected on NS1 and then a third on NS2 all very close to the Norwegian/Polish Baltic Pipeline project, it wouldn't surprise me if the explosive devices came down the NS1 pipeline from Vyborg and and like everything Russian failed so they sent one down NS2 with the target being all three pipelines.
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I think it would be interesting to know the order of the explosions, as I understand it NS2 is pretty much complete just not opened but surely if you are right and it isn't complete then why does it have gas in it?
picture2352.png
 
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