Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

MontyB said:
You think that will slow them up, they have claimed more HIMARs destroyed than built and shot down more aircraft in a week than Ukraine had throughout the war.
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And yet they are getting targeted by the HIMARS. If the Russians have destroyed more HIMARS than being deployed or even produced, how can they be hit by them, something to ponder. Have the Ukrainians used their Abrams yet?
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
And yet they are getting targeted by the HIMARS. If the Russians have destroyed more HIMARS than being deployed or even produced, how can they be hit by them, something to ponder. Have the Ukrainians used their Abrams yet?
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I don't think so, I expect they will keep them in reserve for a future offensive probably once the F-16s are available early next year.
 
MontyB said:
I don't think so, I expect they will keep them in reserve for a future offensive probably once the F-16s are available early next year.
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Unless the Russians have already destroyed all the Ukrainian Abrams.

I read the Ukrainian brigade with Leo2s and Bradley's is further east where the Russians are wasting soldiers and equipment
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Unless the Russians have already destroyed all the Ukrainian Abrams.

I read the Ukrainian brigade with Leo2s and Bradley's is further east where the Russians are wasting soldiers and equipment
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It seems some have been moved to around Avdiivka where the Russians are determined to sacrifice men and material to capture empty fields.
It seems that once again Russia is using its WTF battle plan as the northern pincer has gone further north than south and the southern pincer is going west incredibly slowly, if they go any further off track they will meet in Minsk.

My personal feeling is that Ukraine's best course of action now is to plan for the long term, short term limited offensives to keep the Russians on the move and focus on degrading their logistics for 18 months before throwing the kitchen sink at a single point which for me would be between Donetsk city and Bakhmut (where I think they should have gone this year).
 
MontyB said:
It seems some have been moved to around Avdiivka where the Russians are determined to sacrifice men and material to capture empty fields.
It seems that once again Russia is using its WTF battle plan as the northern pincer has gone further north than south and the southern pincer is going west incredibly slowly, if they go any further off track they will meet in Minsk.

My personal feeling is that Ukraine's best course of action now is to plan for the long term, short term limited offensives to keep the Russians on the move and focus on degrading their logistics for 18 months before throwing the kitchen sink at a single point which for me would be between Donetsk city and Bakhmut (where I think they should have gone this year).
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The Russians are throwing in men and equipment to get symbolic victories and with this rate we might see T-34s pretty soon.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Russians are throwing in men and equipment to get symbolic victories and with this rate we might see T-34s pretty soon.
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The Russians still have a vast collection of drunks and losers they can kill off to achieve these rather meaningless gains but I am surprised they are throwing so much material at this, I can't imagine they have armour to burn.
I also suspect that this year's tactic of trenches and mines will not be resolved by the Ukrainian forces or their western support.
 
MontyB said:
The Russians still have a vast collection of drunks and losers they can kill off to achieve these rather meaningless gains but I am surprised they are throwing so much material at this, I can't imagine they have armour to burn.
I also suspect that this year's tactic of trenches and mines will not be resolved by the Ukrainian forces or their western support.
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I think it is better for the Ukrainians to slowly degrade the Russians with artillery, drones, and letting the Russians to expose themselves while attacking and being killed in droves. Russia doesn't care about its soldiers, but they must care about all the APCs, IFVs, MBTs, howitzers, MLRS, and all the other things they are losing in a rapid rate. But it seems they don't.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think it is better for the Ukrainians to slowly degrade the Russians with artillery, drones, and letting the Russians to expose themselves while attacking and being killed in droves. Russia doesn't care about its soldiers, but they must care about all the APCs, IFVs, MBTs, howitzers, MLRS, and all the other things they are losing in a rapid rate. But it seems they don't.
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I think so as well and given that in a couple of months the F-16s can help out with their own glide bombs Russian trench systems may become less secure.
I was looking at a report the other day that said one of Ukraine's latest tactics has been to use cluster munitions to force the Russians to congregate in dugout and the use kamikaze drones to hit the dugout, I am confident that replacing the drone with a 500lb bomb would be even more effective.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Have you seen any use of it yet? It will be interesting to see how it works in the real testing area (Ukraine)
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Nothing yet but I have no doubt images will emerge at some stage, the only picture I have seen to-date was one serving with the 45th artillery brigade in the north east.

I was however interested to hear that HIMARs are under the control of Ukrainian special forces and not "regular" units.
 
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MontyB said:
Nothing yet but I have no doubt images will emerge at some stage, the only picture I have seen to-date was one serving with the 45th artillery brigade in the north east.

I was however interested to hear that HIMARs are under the control of Ukrainian special forces and not "regular" units.
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That makes sense. The SF detect targets for the HIMARS and MLRS deep in Russian controlled territory
 
The UKrainians are quite successful in the Kherson region. The Russians have changed the MO in east. Instead of attacking with mech forces, they are attacking with infantry. I guess they don't have any vehicles left after their senseless attacks so they don't have any other options to run toward the Ukrainian positions
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The UKrainians are quite successful in the Kherson region. The Russians have changed the MO in east. Instead of attacking with mech forces, they are attacking with infantry. I guess they don't have any vehicles left after their senseless attacks so they don't have any other options to run toward the Ukrainian positions
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I still struggle to understand the Ukrainian plan, they seem to be unable or unwilling to commit to a single course of action.
This process of creating multiple bridgeheads and not pushing inland is just allowing Russia to build its defence in depth.
 
MontyB said:
I still struggle to understand the Ukrainian plan, they seem to be unable or unwilling to commit to a single course of action.
This process of creating multiple bridgeheads and not pushing inland is just allowing Russia to build its defence in depth.
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I think the major problem for both the Russians and the Ukrainians is neither side can do anything without being detected. That makes it really hard and difficult to attack any positions when it is much easier to defend than to attack, which usually requires an advantage in soldiers and equipment. The surveillance equipment on both sides makes it more or less impossible to achieve a tactical surprise.

All wars are different, this is a symmetric war with that has changed the MO of both sides. Drones aren't new, but they have somewhat changed the operational concepts. This is the war of drones. Another major change is we have went the full circle with the use of MBTs. The artillery has showed it is the major killer on the battlefield.

I think the Ukrainians are trying to probe the Russians positions to find weak spots and maybe they have found a few in the Kherson region
 
I thought this was interesting and I agree with it largely...
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Putin has said something that I interpret as he has realized the war was a huge mistake and now is trying to find a way out of it.
 
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