Machiavelli said that the "Prince"/King/head of State has the Right/duty to do what he has to to stay in power. Maybe "Byzantine" would be a better word for it....
Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Putin believes the same thing, it is almost like the Necromongers creed from the movie Chronicles of Riddick of you keep what you kill only in Russian parlance "You keep what you steal".
What Russian propaganda ?
1 Is it propaganda to doubt the claims that the Wagner Group could capture Moscow (12 million people ) ?
2 Is it propaganda to doubt the claim that Putin left Moscow ?
3 Is it propaganda to doubt the claim that the Wagner Group captured Rostov ( 1,1 million people ) ?
4 Is it propaganda to doubt the claim that Lukachenko is a muppet ?
5 Is it propaganda to doubt the claim that the Wagner Group is now in Ukraine ? And, if the Wagner Group has left the front,why has Ukraine not used this to attack the sector that is now undefended ?
Is it propaganda to doubt the claim that this rebellion was planned ?
The CIA media are unable to tell us the importance of the Wagner Group for Russia .
They told us triumphantly that there would now be a civil war in Russia which would result in the fall of Putin and in the end of the Ukrainian war .
Nothing of this happened and now they try to convince us that Putin is weakened !
A realist in DC ( Milley ) said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive ( has it yet started ? )will be very costly and that the war continue to last for years .
This indicates that a fall of Putin will not result in the end of the war .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Yes, but even Machiavelli wasn't that Machiavellian, but I must say I like the old "Prince"
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
True but in this case it is more about the traditional meaning of the term Machiavellian than the historical accuracy of the statement.
There is morally nothing wrong or right with Machiavellian concepts,which are only realpolitik .
The only thing to do to survive in this world is to do as what has described Machiavelli ,as wokeness always fails .
The end justifies the means is the only thing a ruler has to remember.
The only thing to do to survive in this world is to do as what has described Machiavelli ,as wokeness always fails .
The end justifies the means is the only thing a ruler has to remember.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I am stumped by the Russian perspective on this, if the west stopped supplying Ukraine with equipment he is correct the war would end within a short period as Ukraine would have to accept an agreement that rewards Russia for invading another country.
It is also equally true to say if Russia agreed to leave Ukrainian territory the war would end almost instantly.
I remain convinced that this is a war the Ukraine can't win at best it can force a stalemate on its own terms as such I believe the west supplying Ukraine is the right thing to do and in fact we should be giving them everything they need to achieve their goals.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/...-stopped-arming-Ukraine-with-weapons-Medvedev
It is also equally true to say if Russia agreed to leave Ukrainian territory the war would end almost instantly.
I remain convinced that this is a war the Ukraine can't win at best it can force a stalemate on its own terms as such I believe the west supplying Ukraine is the right thing to do and in fact we should be giving them everything they need to achieve their goals.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/...-stopped-arming-Ukraine-with-weapons-Medvedev
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
I think Ukraine can win this war, or rather Russia cannot win it either, but be losing the war not in Ukraine, but in Russia. When the cost of the war gets higher than the benefits of it.
Even if the Russian armed forces have showed competence during the Ukrainians attacks recently, but it is easier to defend than to attack. The Russian forces haven't impressed much during the war.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Define winning?
A win for Ukraine is recovering it's land and being able to defend itself from the inevitable repeat that will happen in a year or two once Russia has rebuilt but that is in reality a stalemate as they can't force Russia to pack it in.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
All wars are different, but a victory for Ukraine will be to inflict too much damage so the Russians say Fxxk it and want to end it. The might can recapture Crimea when it is more vulnerable than Donbas, but it requires the Ukrainians can trash the Russian logistics. Maybe Ukraine must give up Donbas and joining NATO would most likely prevent Russia from doing it again.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I would argue that a political system and leadership as corrupt as the Russian one knows that saying "F**K it, this is too costly" would be skydiving from 6 story Moscow buildings without parachutes by sundown.
Even if an agreement was signed tomorrow giving Russia everything it had stolen it will be back in a couple of years for more, as for joining NATO, it is the best option for keeping the Russians home but I suspect Hungary would do to Ukraine what Turkey is doing to Sweden.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Yes, it requires the current Russian leadership takes a nosedive from a balcony or out of a window. It also requires the new Russian leadership isn't worse than the current one.
It also depends on how the Russian military views the war and is more less forced to call for a quit. The only way for the Ukrainians to achieve that is to provide them with even more tools and training.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I am in favour of the west doing more in terms of equipment and as I have said I support the idea of securing their northern border with
Belarus allowing Ukraine to redeploy it forces from there.
I hear the US is looking at sending cluster munitions which should help reduce the numerical advantage the Russians have but they still need long range munitions and aircraft.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The Russian forces have spent the winter with deploying a lot of mines, which is the main reason for why the Ukrainian offensive is quite slow. Mines are cheap and can slow down an attacking force without casualties for the defender. The Ukraine needs mine clearing equipment and the air support, aka the fighters. I read the US is now providing with long range missiles to the HIMARS and MLRS to hit the Russian supplies.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Surely cluster munitions will help deal with Russian trench fortifications and I have seen videos of Ukraine using what looks like mine clearing line charges to clear paths through minefields.
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
With the number of unexploded mines throughout the world, I am surprised that flail tanks are not utilised, surely they could be used to clear Russian mines in Ukraine.
I cannot see Russia winning this war with Ukraine, Russian troops are fed up with the lack of kit that works, as well as the high casualty rates, they basically have nothing to fight for. Ukraine however, have everything to fight for.
I cannot see Russia winning this war with Ukraine, Russian troops are fed up with the lack of kit that works, as well as the high casualty rates, they basically have nothing to fight for. Ukraine however, have everything to fight for.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
To use dummy mines works pretty good to interrupt any movements. Nobody wants to drive over them or walk into a field with dummy mines mixed with real ones.
Mines can stay active for decades, it will be a mess to clear all the lands when this war is over.
Mines can stay active for decades, it will be a mess to clear all the lands when this war is over.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Mechanical mine clearance has never been considered all that effective as they struggle on uneven terrain and at times just push the mine deeper there is also the issue of "smart" mines.
Regarding Russian morale, as with anything in this war we really don't know the full story.
While it is hard to imagine Russian morale as being high it can also be said that they are not refusing to fight in huge numbers nor are they surrendering in droves, they certainly are not using armour in the volumes they were but does that mean they are running out or have just changed tactics.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I think at this stage of the war there are no victory conditions for Russia even if it takes over all of Ukraine.
From a Western perspective, Western military weaknesses have been exposed, its weapons are being tested effectively for free and the mystique of the 20th century Red army has been shattered.
Politically and economically it will take them decades to recover from this debacle.
The primary "win" for Ukraine would be to recapture the territory they have lost since 2022 and victory for them would be the return of the Donbas and decisive victory would be Crimea.
Personally, I think if Russia offered a return to the 2022 borders, they keep Crimea and some sort of special status for the areas of the Donbas that were occupied before 2022, Ukraine probably would accept it with Western security assurances.