Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

George said:
If the whole Wagner Group gets "exiled" to Belarus, then goes "rogue" and invades The Ukraine, this whole thing is a show...Of course if he jumps out a window, maybe not.
Click to expand...

To be honest I am not sure what that was, I am starting to think Prigozhen just went off on a drunken bender and sobered up about 200km from Moscow.

My guess is that Wagner group fighters will be sent back to Ukraine under the Russian military and inevitably be cannon fodder while Prigozhen totters off to Belarus to await a dose of novichok before slipping and falling six floors in his bathroom.
 
MontyB said:
To be honest I am not sure what that was, I am starting to think Prigozhen just went off on a drunken bender and sobered up about 200km from Moscow.

My guess is that Wagner group fighters will be sent back to Ukraine under the Russian military and inevitably be cannon fodder while Prigozhen totters off to Belarus to await a dose of novichok before slipping and falling six floors in his bathroom.
Click to expand...

I don't know what that was either. They didn't face a lot of resistance and this might be the first "protest" or whatever this was. He sounds drunk in his rants about the Russian military.

This is also why I'm don't like PMCs. I have been watching them since the end of the cold war and I have been writing articles about them and the problem to have PMC with different agendas. Cartels in Mexico and Colombia have bought the service from PMCs. That must be appreciated by the law enforcement in these two countries. There are also indications the ISIS bought PMCs to provide the training for their fighters.
 
George said:
If the whole Wagner Group gets "exiled" to Belarus, then goes "rogue" and invades The Ukraine, this whole thing is a show...Of course if he jumps out a window, maybe not.
Click to expand...
Meant to have included that an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus by Wagner would give Putin "plausible deniability" for violating Belarus neutrality, though they reportely had l;aunched air attacks from there.
 
George said:
Meant to have included that an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus by Wagner would give Putin "plausible deniability" for violating Belarus neutrality, though they reportely had l;aunched air attacks from there.
Click to expand...

I doubt Wagner could put together enough combat power to launch an effective assault from Belarus, Ukraine has had enough time to prepare defense's along the border and train/equip it's TDF in the area.

This is interesting:

Wagner mutiny: Prigozhin's soldiers rage while others cry conspiracy
Published
15 minutes ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631
 
Last edited:
George said:
Meant to have included that an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus by Wagner would give Putin "plausible deniability" for violating Belarus neutrality, though they reportely had l;aunched air attacks from there.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't Wagner or regular Russian forces attacked from Belarus much earlier if that was an option for the Russians. The Russian have been quite passive in Belarus since the retreat earlier
 
MontyB said:
I doubt Wagner could put together enough combat power to launch an effective assault from Belarus, Ukraine has had enough time to prepare defense's along the border and train/equip it's TDF in the area.

This is interesting:

Wagner mutiny: Prigozhin's soldiers rage while others cry conspiracy
Published
15 minutes ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631
Click to expand...

I think we will see more "revolts" or whatever we can call it. I suspect the next one will come from parts of the Russian military when they think it is enough.
 
There is nothing wrong with PMCs. They exist since the Middle Ages(Swiss mercenaries also belonged to PMCs ).
Us has also PMCs as Vinnell and Blackwater ,Britain has G4S .
Australia, Israel, India, Germany, France, Sweden,Switserland,.the Vatican,.. they all have PMCs .
Of course, the risk is that the PMCs are acting independently and no longer obey the orders of the country that is paying them .
 
lljadw said:
There is nothing wrong with PMCs. They exist since the Middle Ages(Swiss mercenaries also belonged to PMCs ).
Us has also PMCs as Vinnell and Blackwater ,Britain has G4S .
Australia, Israel, India, Germany, France, Sweden,Switserland,.the Vatican,.. they all have PMCs .
Of course, the risk is that the PMCs are acting independently and no longer obey the orders of the country that is paying them .
Click to expand...

They existed long before the Middle Ages, Prigozhin referenced the "March of the ten thousand" which was a mercenary force dating back to the 4th century BC fighting against the Persians.

That said the Bubonic Plague has also been around for 2000+ plus years, it doesn't make it good, and I think it fair to say that PMC's are not a positive anywhere and their presence usually indicates that someone is doing something that doesn't have widespread popular support from the people.
 
Proxy wars are not very popular , but you can't found your foreign policy on popular support .
Saying publicly : we fight for freedom for all human beings can not negate the fact that such a fight implies the collaboration with dictatorial regimes .
The public does not care about foreign policy and prefers no to know about dirty tricks .
And, most important, if you do not use PMCs for proxy wars, you have to use conscripts or regular soldiers and if they die,that will have a bigger impact than the loss of members of the PMCs .
Wagner has lost a lot of men in Ukraine, but the impact of this on the Russian population is almost unexistant .
 
Late Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly addressed the end of a mutiny that threw the country into chaos. Any attempt to create “internal unrest” is doomed to failure, he said, claiming that he could have crushed the rebellion, but wanted to avoid bloodshed.

“They wanted Russians to fight each other,” Putin said in his short remarks. “They rubbed their hands, dreaming of taking revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counteroffensive. But they miscalculated.”

It was a glimpse at the official narrative emerging in the aftermath of an armed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group paramilitary. In less than 24 hours, Wagner fighters seized military installations in Russia’s south and marched on Moscow. Then, just as abruptly, Prigozhin halted that movement, claiming this was all part of the plan. The Kremlin later said a deal — apparently brokered by Belarus — had been reached whereby Prigozhin would avoid prosecution in exchange for going into exile in Belarus, though the details of are still very murky.
 
George said:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...p&cvid=add00efc224e413aa5b0f13d6d9fc309&ei=93
Click to expand...

I am going with no on that, there are too many Machiavellian concepts in there to buy.
1. How does this make Putin look stronger?
An army of several thousand armed rapists an murderers drove from Ukraine to Rostov, took over a city, shot down half a dozen Russian aircraft then drove to a few hours outside Moscow before sobering up and not one Russian unit even attempted to stop them.

2. Putin packed his bags and headed to St Petersburg rather than hang around.
3. That dimwitted muppet from Belarus did all the negotiating.

Surely even the most ardent Putin fan would have to ask why the army made almost no attempt to stop them, had Putin wanted to look like the strong leader he would have stayed in Moscow and organised forces to stomp on an insurrection not run and hide waiting for a third party to intervene.

Another sign of weakness is that he made a couple of speeches stating that the leaders of this "betrayal" would be held accountable and yet Prigozhen is in and out of major Russian cities still.

My guess is that the FSB story is correct, Prigozhen planned this but word got out early to the FSB so in a drunken fit he went ahead early, Putin discovered no one in the Russian military was going to save him (not even his CSTO allies) and got Lukashenko to broker a deal.
 
Last edited:
MontyB said:
I am going with no on that, there are too many Machiavellian concepts in there to buy.
1. How does this make Putin look stronger?
An army of several thousand armed rapists an murderers drove from Ukraine to Rostov, took over a city, shot down half a dozen Russian aircraft then drove to a few hours outside Moscow before sobering up and not one Russian unit even attempted to stop them.

2. Putin packed his bags and headed to St Petersburg rather than hang around.
3. That dimwitted muppet from Belarus did all the negotiating.

Surely even the most ardent Putin fan would have to ask why the army made almost no attempt to stop them, had Putin wanted to look like the strong leader he would have stayed in Moscow and organised forces to stomp on an insurrection not run and hide waiting for a third party to intervene.

Another sign of weakness is that he made a couple of speeches stating that the leaders of this "betrayal" would be held accountable and yet Prigozhen is in and out of major Russian cities still.

My guess is that the FSB story is correct, Prigozhen planned this but word got out early to the FSB so in a drunken fit he went ahead early, Putin discovered no one in the Russian military was going to save him (not even his CSTO allies) and got Lukashenko to broker a deal.
Click to expand...

Wagner group is still hiring according to the BBC, but I am curious. Will Prigozhin fall out of a window or a balcony? There is a third option, he might die of "alcohol poisoning" aka Novichok or Polonium
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Wagner group is still hiring according to the BBC, but I am curious. Will Prigozhin fall out of a window or a balcony? There is a third option, he might die of "alcohol poisoning" aka Novichok or Polonium
Click to expand...

I don't think he can stay in Belarus or he will end up dead, my guess is that Wagner group and Prigozhen will end up in Africa.
 
MontyB said:
I don't think he can stay in Belarus or he will end up dead, my guess is that Wagner group and Prigozhen will end up in Africa.
Click to expand...

I think you are right. The Belarusians must be very comfortable with having the Wagner Group in the country. I read the the Belarusian military is increasing its alert level because of them, but it can also be sign the Belarusians are considering a road trip south.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think you are right. The Belarusians must be very comfortable with having the Wagner Group in the country. I read the the Belarusian military is increasing its alert level because of them, but it can also be sign the Belarusians are considering a road trip south.
Click to expand...

I still believe that the one thing the west could do for Ukraine is secure it's northern border with Belarus, I have been wondering whether conditional entry into NATO may be an option where the current conflict is exempt from article 5 but they it could be triggered if any one else joined Russia.
 
MontyB said:
I am going with no on that, there are too many Machiavellian concepts in there to buy.
1. How does this make Putin look stronger?
An army of several thousand armed rapists an murderers drove from Ukraine to Rostov, took over a city, shot down half a dozen Russian aircraft then drove to a few hours outside Moscow before sobering up and not one Russian unit even attempted to stop them.

2. Putin packed his bags and headed to St Petersburg rather than hang around.
3. That dimwitted muppet from Belarus did all the negotiating.

Surely even the most ardent Putin fan would have to ask why the army made almost no attempt to stop them, had Putin wanted to look like the strong leader he would have stayed in Moscow and organised forces to stomp on an insurrection not run and hide waiting for a third party to intervene.

Another sign of weakness is that he made a couple of speeches stating that the leaders of this "betrayal" would be held accountable and yet Prigozhen is in and out of major Russian cities still.

My guess is that the FSB story is correct, Prigozhen planned this but word got out early to the FSB so in a drunken fit he went ahead early, Putin discovered no one in the Russian military was going to save him (not even his CSTO allies) and got Lukashenko to broker a deal.
Click to expand...

1 The Wagner group is more than an army of armed rapists and murderers
2 That no Russian unit attempted to stop them can have as reasons that
A The advance of the Wagner group was not considered as dangerous :Moscow has more than 12 million inhabitants and can thus not be captured by a few thousand men .We don't know how many men of the Wagner group were going from Rostov to Moscow ,a distance of 1083 km and we don't know how close they were to Moscow .
B the Kremlin tried, for political reasons ,to prevent a fight with a lot of casualties that would be used by the Western propaganda as a proof that there was a civil war in Russia .
3 There is no proof that Putin backed his bags and left Moscow .
4 Lukachenko is not a dimwitted muppet
5 There is no proof that this operetta rebellion was a serious danger for the Putin regime .
6 The bosses of Wagner are in Belarus ,but no one knows where the other members of the Wagner group are . Rostov?Belarus ?Ukraine ? POW camp ?
7 There is also the point that no one knows the reason for this operetta rebellion. Some claim that there was a strong hostility between Prigozhen and the army top .
8 And no one knows why suddenly ,after one day, the rebellion collapsed .
9 It is also an exaggeration to say that the Wagner group captured Rostov (population : 1,1 million )
10 I would not say that Prigozhen planned the whole thing,reality is that it was an improvisation .
 
Last edited:
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think you are right. The Belarusians must be very comfortable with having the Wagner Group in the country. I read the the Belarusian military is increasing its alert level because of them, but it can also be sign the Belarusians are considering a road trip south.
Click to expand...

There is no proof, only claims ,that the Wagner group is in Belarus .
 
lljadw said:
1 The Wagner group is more than an army of armed rapists and murderers
2 That no Russian unit attempted to stop them can have as reasons that
A The advance of the Wagner group was not considered as dangerous :Moscow has more than 12 million inhabitants and can thus not be captured by a few thousand men .We don't know how many men of the Wagner group were going from Rostov to Moscow ,a distance of 1083 km and we don't know how close they were to Moscow .
B the Kremlin tried, for political reasons ,to prevent a fight with a lot of casualties that would be used by the Western propaganda as a proof that there was a civil war in Russia .
3 There is no proof that Putin backed his bags and left Moscow .
4 Lukachenko is not a dimwitted muppet
5 There is no proof that this operetta rebellion was a serious danger for the Putin regime .
6 The bosses of Wagner are in Belarus ,but no one knows where the other members of the Wagner group are . Rostov?Belarus ?Ukraine ? POW camp ?
7 There is also the point that no one knows the reason for this operetta rebellion. Some claim that there was a strong hostility between Prigozhen and the army top .
8 And no one knows why suddenly ,after one day, the rebellion collapsed .
9 It is also an exaggeration to say that the Wagner group captured Rostov (population : 1,1 million )
10 I would not say that Prigozhen planned the whole thing,reality is that it was an improvisation .
Click to expand...

I am starting to see a few parallels to Russian propaganda being repeated here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top