Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

It has been tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military for awhile now and he is most likely quite upset about it.

The war will end with some sort of negotiation and signing a truce first and later a peace agreement. The time for it may occur when the Russians think the cost of the war is much higher than what they gain from it. This can occur if the Ukrainians are able to make let say Crimea unattainable.

I begin to think the war cannot end with Putin in charge, if he falls out of a window or a balcony. A new Russian leader can reach an agreement. Russia can also disintegrate after the war and that can be quite concerning. What would happen to the Russian nukes if that happens
 
Meanwhile, Ukraine knows now that there is a limit to the help it can expect from Poland :Poland is now banning the import of Ukrainian grain and other agriculture products,because these products are a threat for the Polish farmers .
This is only the beginning:other Ukrainian supporters can and will do the same if the aid on Ukraine is threatening their own interests .
 
lljadw said:
Meanwhile, Ukraine knows now that there is a limit to the help it can expect from Poland :Poland is now banning the import of Ukrainian grain and other agriculture products,because these products are a threat for the Polish farmers .
This is only the beginning:other Ukrainian supporters can and will do the same if the aid on Ukraine is threatening their own interests .
Click to expand...

I am not sure Poland's decision is all that concerning as there are no shortage of countries wanting to buy grain and any grain surpluses will lead to cheaper grain and that will also affect Russia.
 
MontyB said:
I am not sure Poland's decision is all that concerning as there are no shortage of countries wanting to buy grain and any grain surpluses will lead to cheaper grain and that will also affect Russia.
Click to expand...

Maybe Russia would buy some Ukrainian grain,Ukraine is also buying Russian oil products from Russian oil imported by Bulgaria and refined in Bulgaria .
Business is business .
The neighbours of Ukraine are complaining about this grain since last year and now Poland, followed by Hungary starts the sanctions ,there are elections in Poland this year and the Polish farmers are not satisfied.
 
lljadw said:
Maybe Russia would buy some Ukrainian grain,Ukraine is also buying Russian oil products from Russian oil imported by Bulgaria and refined in Bulgaria .
Business is business .
The neighbours of Ukraine are complaining about this grain since last year and now Poland, followed by Hungary starts the sanctions ,there are elections in Poland this year and the Polish farmers are not satisfied.
Click to expand...

Russia only steals
 
MontyB said:
Russia only steals
Click to expand...

Not ''only '' :Russia exports oil to Bulgaria that is selling it to Ukraine .
Bulgaria was importing 15000 Barrels of Russian oil a day in December and 60 % of Ukraine's diesel comes from Bulgaria and thus from Russia .And this diesel was not stolen.
And last december ,everyday Russian oil that was bought by India arrived at the port of NYC .
89000 barrels a day ,The highest amount in 4 years .
Business is business .
The first Russian invasion of Ukraine had as result that NewZeaLand was importing more Russian oil .
If the first invasion was not bad (only crocodile tears ) why is the second invasion bad ?
 
lljadw said:
Not ''only '' :Russia exports oil to Bulgaria that is selling it to Ukraine .
Bulgaria was importing 15000 Barrels of Russian oil a day in December and 60 % of Ukraine's diesel comes from Bulgaria and thus from Russia .And this diesel was not stolen.
And last december ,everyday Russian oil that was bought by India arrived at the port of NYC .
89000 barrels a day ,The highest amount in 4 years .
Business is business .
The first Russian invasion of Ukraine had as result that Zealand was importing more Russian oil .
If the first invasion was not bad (only crocodile tears ) why is the second invasion bad ?
Click to expand...

What you are talking about is drops in the ocean, 15000 barrels, 89000 barrels won't even cover the maintenance costs of delivery.

I really don't think you have grasped the roll of the price cap on Russian oil, it is specifically designed to keep Russian oil in the market at a price they can't make a profit from and it is working very well given the 20% drop in fuel prices here and all the while the western world gradually transitions away from fossil fuels.
 
MontyB said:
What you are talking about is drops in the ocean, 15000 barrels, 89000 barrels won't even cover the maintenance costs of delivery.

I really don't think you have grasped the roll of the price cap on Russian oil, it is specifically designed to keep Russian oil in the market at a price they can't make a profit from and it is working very well given the 20% drop in fuel prices here and all the while the western world gradually transitions away from fossil fuels.
Click to expand...

If they do not cover the maintenance costs of delivery, why is Russia exporting them and why are US and Ukraine buying them ?
According to the IEA (and we may assume that these figures are too low ,giving the people who control the IEA ) ,the AVERAGE amount of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products per day was
7,5 million bpd in 2021
and 7,7 million bpd in 2022 .
This means that the result of the invasion was that the exports INCREASED by 200000 barrels every day .
The figures for February 2023 are 7,5 million bpd but there is no proof that this decrease was caused by the war .
The revenues from these exports were
14,9 billion UDS per month in 2021
and 18,7 billion USD per month in 2022
Estimations from the IEA
For February the monthly revenues were 11,6 billion USD ,but this figure can not be used as a proof,as there are no figures for February 2021 and February 2022 .
The only thing we know is that the result of the invasion was that Russia gained every month 3,8 billion USD compared to 2021 .
The West claimed that it had limited the price of Russian seaborne oil to $ 60 dollar per barrel , but that is an unproved claim, because it is not the West that determines the price of the crude oil . This price is determined not by those that produce oil,but by those that export oil .
The fact that in 2022 Russia exported more oil (73 million barrels )and gained more money ( $ 45,6 billion ) than in 2021 indicates that the Western sanctions are failing .
Source is :Reuters from March 15 2023 =
Factbox :the battle over Russia's crude and oil products .
The oil sanctions against Italy in 1935-1936 failed .
The food sanctions against the Soviets after their intervention in Afghanistan,failed . And there were no gas or fuel sanctions .
The sanctions against Iran,Iraq, Syria,Cuba failed .
Why should the sanctions against Russia fail ?
If Ukraine and US give the example by buying Russian oil, why should anyone refuse to buy Russian oil ?
Australia prohibits the transport of Russian oil,petroleum products and gas ..unless ...unless and than we see emerge the exceptions ,one of them being that the prohibition does not apply if the prices are below the maximum of $ 60 per ton ,but as no one can prove what the real price is ,the result is that the sanctions are worthless .
People will continue to buy Russian oil,as long as this oil is cheaper than oil from other countries .And KSA is indirectly increasing the price of its oil,which means that Russia also can increase the price of its oil .
In 2020 KSA was the number 1 of oil exporting countries, Russia the number 2, US only the number 3 .
Thus it are the numbers 1 and 2 who fix the oil price, not the number 3 .
 
lljadw said:
If they do not cover the maintenance costs of delivery, why is Russia exporting them and why are US and Ukraine buying them ?
According to the IEA (and we may assume that these figures are too low ,giving the people who control the IEA ) ,the AVERAGE amount of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products per day was
7,5 million bpd in 2021
and 7,7 million bpd in 2022 .
This means that the result of the invasion was that the exports INCREASED by 200000 barrels every day .
The figures for February 2023 are 7,5 million bpd but there is no proof that this decrease was caused by the war .
The revenues from these exports were
14,9 billion UDS per month in 2021
and 18,7 billion USD per month in 2022
Estimations from the IEA
For February the monthly revenues were 11,6 billion USD ,but this figure can not be used as a proof,as there are no figures for February 2021 and February 2022 .
The only thing we know is that the result of the invasion was that Russia gained every month 3,8 billion USD compared to 2021 .
The West claimed that it had limited the price of Russian seaborne oil to $ 60 dollar per barrel , but that is an unproved claim, because it is not the West that determines the price of the crude oil . This price is determined not by those that produce oil,but by those that export oil .
The fact that in 2022 Russia exported more oil (73 million barrels )and gained more money ( $ 45,6 billion ) than in 2021 indicates that the Western sanctions are failing .
Source is :Reuters from March 15 2023 =
Factbox :the battle over Russia's crude and oil products .
The oil sanctions against Italy in 1935-1936 failed .
The food sanctions against the Soviets after their intervention in Afghanistan,failed . And there were no gas or fuel sanctions .
The sanctions against Iran,Iraq, Syria,Cuba failed .
Why should the sanctions against Russia fail ?
If Ukraine and US give the example by buying Russian oil, why should anyone refuse to buy Russian oil ?
Australia prohibits the transport of Russian oil,petroleum products and gas ..unless ...unless and than we see emerge the exceptions ,one of them being that the prohibition does not apply if the prices are below the maximum of $ 60 per ton ,but as no one can prove what the real price is ,the result is that the sanctions are worthless .
People will continue to buy Russian oil,as long as this oil is cheaper than oil from other countries .And KSA is indirectly increasing the price of its oil,which means that Russia also can increase the price of its oil .
In 2020 KSA was the number 1 of oil exporting countries, Russia the number 2, US only the number 3 .
Thus it are the numbers 1 and 2 who fix the oil price, not the number 3 .
Click to expand...

Yeah and as pointed out the US plan was to keep Russia oil in the market just at a much cheaper rate.
The country making the money from this isn't Russia but rather all the countries buy cheap crude, processing it and on selling it like India.
Russia is effectively selling at cost and it is hard to fund a war for long when you aren't actually making a profit, from a western perspective the more oil Russia sells right now the better.
 
MontyB said:
Yeah and as pointed out the US plan was to keep Russia oil in the market just at a much cheaper rate.
The country making the money from this isn't Russia but rather all the countries buy cheap crude, processing it and on selling it like India.
Russia is effectively selling at cost and it is hard to fund a war for long when you aren't actually making a profit, from a western perspective the more oil Russia sells right now the better.
Click to expand...

If Russian oil is cheaper than US oil,people will buy Russian oil and not US oil, thus US will suffer .
If Russia is selling at cost, US also must sell at cost , besides KSA has cut its production which means that the oil prices are going up,thus that also the price of Russian oil is going up and thus that Russia is no longer selling its oil at cost .
What US is planning is also irrelevant as it is not US that determines the world oil price ,but KSA, Iran and the UAE and also Russia .
Europe is depending on Russian oil, no other country can replace Russia for this . If you are making Russian oil cheaper, Russia will sell more oil .And even if the price of Russian oil is going up,the result will be meaningless ,as Russian oil is transported by pipeline and as transporting oil by tankers can not replace the pipelines .
US sanctions did not work in 2022 ,as Russia exported more oil than in 2021.And the argument that the increase of the production was nullified by the collaps of the price is an unproved argument, as no one knows at what price Russia sold its oil in 2022 .
One can even argue that the price of Russian oil was going up in 2022 ,because the price of oil was going up in all countries .
It is possible that the price of Russian oil was going down in 2023, but this can also be caused by other reasons than the war ,reasons as the situation of the world economy, as the weather, decisions by KSA, etc.But this can also be nullified by an increase of the amount of Russian oil that is exported .And as no one knows how much oil Russia is exporting and at what price and as the Russians and their clients will not tell it,it is only speculations and guesses .
 
lljadw said:
If Russian oil is cheaper than US oil,people will buy Russian oil and not US oil, thus US will suffer .
If Russia is selling at cost, US also must sell at cost , besides KSA has cut its production which means that the oil prices are going up,thus that also the price of Russian oil is going up and thus that Russia is no longer selling its oil at cost .
What US is planning is also irrelevant as it is not US that determines the world oil price ,but KSA, Iran and the UAE and also Russia .
Europe is depending on Russian oil, no other country can replace Russia for this . If you are making Russian oil cheaper, Russia will sell more oil .And even if the price of Russian oil is going up,the result will be meaningless ,as Russian oil is transported by pipeline and as transporting oil by tankers can not replace the pipelines .
US sanctions did not work in 2022 ,as Russia exported more oil than in 2021.And the argument that the increase of the production was nullified by the collaps of the price is an unproved argument, as no one knows at what price Russia sold its oil in 2022 .
One can even argue that the price of Russian oil was going up in 2022 ,because the price of oil was going up in all countries .
It is possible that the price of Russian oil was going down in 2023, but this can also be caused by other reasons than the war ,reasons as the situation of the world economy, as the weather, decisions by KSA, etc.But this can also be nullified by an increase of the amount of Russian oil that is exported .And as no one knows how much oil Russia is exporting and at what price and as the Russians and their clients will not tell it,it is only speculations and guesses .
Click to expand...

While partially true your argument doesn't take into account the cost of extracting oil nor the cost of shipping as Russia can no longer use western shipping nor insurance and the more convoluted the process of transport the more expensive the process.
 
There are discussions about the Ukrainian counter-offensive and there are those who doubt the Ukrainians can do it. I think Ukraine has the knowledge and the capabilities to launch an offensive, They have done it before, but there is a risk to attack. Would it be better if Ukraine focus more on to inflict so much damage and casualties for the Russians than the risk of losing their best trained and equipped forces in an offensive.
 
MontyB said:
While partially true your argument doesn't take into account the cost of extracting oil nor the cost of shipping as Russia can no longer use western shipping nor insurance and the more convoluted the process of transport the more expensive the process.
Click to expand...

As far as I know, the cost of extracting oil for Russia is less than the cost of extracting oil for the US and the cost of shipping is not important as transport by ship can be replaced by transport over land .
And, after the oil price cap of $ 60 dollar from 5 December last year, Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel,according to the paper '' Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian oil exports '' published on the Social Science Research Network .
That Russia can no longer use western shipping,is questionable as Greek enterprises are still shipping Russian oil that mysteriously has ceased to be Russian .
 
Some more information (from Statista )
'' Russia crude oil shipments by destination 2021-2023 ''
''Russia's energy export revenue in 2022 (oil,gas, coal )forecast 321 billion USD ,an increase of 36 % from 2021.
Of these 321 billion USD ,a total of 197 billion Euro came from the export of crude oil and refined oil products .
Of these 197 billion Euro, 83,3 billion came from countries of the EU,which was more than the amount spend on fossil gas and coal .''

That's why I said that no one can replace the Russian oil exports for Europe .
It is a fact that the US imports of Russian oil are decreasing, but given the fact that these imports are almost meaningless compared to the total Russian oil exports, it would be wrong to give this any importance at all .
It is also a fact that the official monthly price of the Ural crude decreased in March 2023 to 49,7 USD per barrel ,but this is neutralised by the other fact that Russia is succeeding to sell its oil for 74 USD per barrel .Besides,in April 2020 the monthly price of Ural crude was only 16,6 USD per barrel and this did not cause Russian's collaps .Meanwhile in April 2023 the price of Ural crude is increasing to 60 USD per barrel .
Maybe we can conclude
1 that Russia exported more oil in 2022 and earned more money from this export,which means that the US sanctions failed .
2 that there is no proof that in the first 3 months of 2023 the US sanctions were working .
3 that one of the reasons why the sanctions failed in 2022 is that no one was willing to suffer for Ukraine : people do not buy Russian oil, they buy the cheapest oil and as long as Russia's oil is cheaper than that of other countries, they will continue to buy Russia's oil .
4 the only way to hurt Russia is to sell oil on a lower price than Russia, but no one has the intention to do it,even not the US .
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The price cap on Russian oil has two purposes. To prevent a price spike and to prevent a fuel shortage
Click to expand...

NO :a low price for Russian oil does not prevent a world price spike and it has no influence on the amount of oil that is available .It is even the opposite : if oil prices are going down because of less demand, the offer will also go down with as result that the prices will go up .
Russia is now selling oil at $ 74 per barrel,other countries have a higher or lower price,but that has no influence on the offer of oil .
Lower prices do not mean a bigger demand and higher prices do not mean a lower demand .
Besides, the influence of the exporting countries on the price the consumer is paying, is very limited .
The aim of the price cap was to force Russia to sell its oil at $ 60 per barrel or lower so that Russia could not make any gain by exporting oil or even that it would lose money by exporting oil . Reality is that this has failed because Russia can sell its oil as long as it is cheaper than that from other countries .
 
lljadw said:
NO :a low price for Russian oil does not prevent a world price spike and it has no influence on the amount of oil that is available .It is even the opposite : if oil prices are going down because of less demand, the offer will also go down with as result that the prices will go up .
Russia is now selling oil at $ 74 per barrel,other countries have a higher or lower price,but that has no influence on the offer of oil .
Lower prices do not mean a bigger demand and higher prices do not mean a lower demand .
Besides, the influence of the exporting countries on the price the consumer is paying, is very limited .
The aim of the price cap was to force Russia to sell its oil at $ 60 per barrel or lower so that Russia could not make any gain by exporting oil or even that it would lose money by exporting oil . Reality is that this has failed because Russia can sell its oil as long as it is cheaper than that from other countries .
Click to expand...

That's true, the price cap on Russian oil is there to reduce the economic gain for Russia. The price of crude oil is determined by supply, future supply, and expected demand. Products like oil, diamonds, minerals, and even ideas are traded globally and the supply and demand sets the price.
 
lljadw said:
Meanwhile, Ukraine knows now that there is a limit to the help it can expect from Poland :Poland is now banning the import of Ukrainian grain and other agriculture products,because these products are a threat for the Polish farmers .
This is only the beginning:other Ukrainian supporters can and will do the same if the aid on Ukraine is threatening their own interests .
Click to expand...

This is equating apples to oranges. Poland is protecting its domestic economic interests, which does not mean they are reducing their military and political support for Ukraine. Another example of this is the USA's and Japan's auto import/exports. Japan has a lot of restrictions on car imports to protect its domestic car market, but Japan remains America's closest ally in Asia.

In terms of percentage of GDP and relative size, Poland remains the top contributor to Ukraine's military and humanitarian aid. The U.S. contributes more in terms of dollar amount, but when measured against their GDP, it's pennies. Poland has suffered under the Soviet Union so they know fully well what happens next should Ukraine fail.
 
ASTRALdragon said:
This is equating apples to oranges. Poland is protecting its domestic economic interests, which does not mean they are reducing their military and political support for Ukraine. Another example of this is the USA's and Japan's auto import/exports. Japan has a lot of restrictions on car imports to protect its domestic car market, but Japan remains America's closest ally in Asia.

In terms of percentage of GDP and relative size, Poland remains the top contributor to Ukraine's military and humanitarian aid. The U.S. contributes more in terms of dollar amount, but when measured against their GDP, it's pennies. Poland has suffered under the Soviet Union so they know fully well what happens next should Ukraine fail.
Click to expand...

While Poland has given a lot, I thought it was the Baltic states that had given the most for their size.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top