Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

I think Ukraine is more or less forced to give up Crimea and Donbas. Ukraine will never trust Russia after this and a Finlandization isn't really an option for Ukraine.

The end of this war, oh well. I think it will end when the cost of it is much higher than the benefits of it. Russia has suffered a lot of casualties and it will be a reaction to the high rate of KIA's. The Soviet Union couldn't hide the amount of casualties during the their Afghan war. The Russian government cannot hide it now. The amount of KIA's in this war is higher than their Afghan war and that one lasted for more than nine years. This has lasted for month with more KIA's and it is not over yet.

Another end of it is if the Russian decide to get rid of Putin. It might be the end of his dream of a Russian empire.
 
MontyB said:
It will be interesting to see how that goes and whether anyone is prepared to effectively sign up for war against a nuclear power.


This is interesting, seem Ukraine may be trying to take the war into Russia.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...mmunition-depot-explosion-near-ukraine-border
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I hope they keep hitting the Russians on Russian territory

I also read somewhere, the Russians have lost more men, killed, missing or POW's during the war with Ukraine then the whole of their time in Afghanistan.

Some Russian units suffering heavy losses in Ukraine had been forced to return home and to neighbouring Belarus, British military intelligence said a day after Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv and another city.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reacted with scepticism to the offer made by Russia during negotiations in Istanbul aimed at de-escalating a conflict now in its fifth week.

His forces have halted the invasion on most fronts, and some analysts noted that Russia`s promise to reduce fighting mostly covered areas where it has been losing ground, even as civilians remained trapped in besieged cities in the south and east.

Heavy losses and the withdrawal of some troops was impacting Russian operations, said Britain's defence ministry.

"Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having re-organising its units in forward areas within Ukraine," it said in an assessment on Wednesday.

Russia is likely to continue to compensate for its reduced ground manoeuvre capability through mass artillery and missile strikes, the ministry added.
 
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BritinBritain said:
I hope they keep hitting the Russians on Russian territory

I also read somewhere, the Russians have lost more men, killed, missing or POW's during the war with Ukraine then the whole of their time in Afghanistan.

Some Russian units suffering heavy losses in Ukraine had been forced to return home and to neighbouring Belarus, British military intelligence said a day after Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv and another city.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reacted with scepticism to the offer made by Russia during negotiations in Istanbul aimed at de-escalating a conflict now in its fifth week.

His forces have halted the invasion on most fronts, and some analysts noted that Russia`s promise to reduce fighting mostly covered areas where it has been losing ground, even as civilians remained trapped in besieged cities in the south and east.

Heavy losses and the withdrawal of some troops was impacting Russian operations, said Britain's defence ministry.

"Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having re-organising its units in forward areas within Ukraine," it said in an assessment on Wednesday.

Russia is likely to continue to compensate for its reduced ground manoeuvre capability through mass artillery and missile strikes, the ministry added.
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I am convinced the key to this for the Ukrainians is the ability to degrade Russian logistics at the maximum distance possible hell I would be happy if they could hit weapons factories but rail, bridges, fuel and oil storage in southern Russia and Crimea would make life difficult for the front line forces.
 
MontyB said:
It will be interesting to see how that goes and whether anyone is prepared to effectively sign up for war against a nuclear power.


This is interesting, seem Ukraine may be trying to take the war into Russia.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...mmunition-depot-explosion-near-ukraine-border
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The Ukrainians are reading what we are talking about. The explosion can also be an accident.

I have been thinking about the Russian retreat, can it be to get out of the blast area of a nuclear weapon?
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Ukrainians are reading what we are talking about. The explosion can also be an accident.

I have been thinking about the Russian retreat, can it be to get out of the blast area of a nuclear weapon?
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There is no reason why it couldn't although I imagine Ukrainian troops would be hot on the heels of any Russian retreat to keep the pressure on.
That said Putin would have to have lost his mind to think he would get away with using any sort of nuke and I am not sure Russian troops would obey that order anyway, I assume that this is based around Putin and his family spending a lot of vacation time in a Siberian bunker these days?

I would be more inclined to believe that was due to concerns about his own safety in Moscow than preparation for a nuclear strike.
 
MontyB said:
There is no reason why it couldn't although I imagine Ukrainian troops would be hot on the heels of any Russian retreat to keep the pressure on.
That said Putin would have to have lost his mind to think he would get away with using any sort of nuke and I am not sure Russian troops would obey that order anyway, I assume that this is based around Putin and his family spending a lot of vacation time in a Siberian bunker these days?

I would be more inclined to believe that was due to concerns about his own safety in Moscow than preparation for a nuclear strike.
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I hope you are right. I think the Russians are regrouping their forces to the east (Donbas) and to the south. Another option would be they just return to Belarus or Russia to refit them and sending them back to attack Kyiv and the other places.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I hope you are right. I think the Russians are regrouping their forces to the east (Donbas) and to the south. Another option would be they just return to Belarus or Russia to refit them and sending them back to attack Kyiv and the other places.
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To be fair the Russians can't lie straight in bed, no one is buying anything they say they are going to do.
Here is the reason I think Putin is vacationing in Siberia these days...

If this is to be believed there could be a bit of tension between Putin and military leaders...

https://ijr.com/vladimir-putin-misled-russian-military-ukraine-invasion/

Also seems to be a change of tactics with the west sending long range artillery and armoured vehicles...

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-armoured-vehicles-long-range-artillery-ukraine-1550960

I also think the explosions in Belgorod were less an accident and more a deliberate Ukrainian move as they now have an oil facility on fire apparently caused by Ukrainian helicopters...

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/185226/Russian-oil-depot-near-Ukraine-border-on-fire-VIDEOS

Maybe they are listening. ;)
 
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I read somewhere that captured Russian soldiers will be executed if they return to Russia, which wouldn't surprise me if they changed sides. I seem to remember that is what happened during WW2 when Soviets troops captured by the Germans during WW2, the poor buggers were shot when returning to Russia. I read that despite the fact that those who escaped and fought with partisans, was never taken into account.
 
George said:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=5889c82b23c144438b0152a682993b82 Ukrainian MI-24s
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Assuming this isn't an April fool's day prank I am still hoping to see a missile take out a wall on the Kremlin and hear from the Russians that it was a training exercise.

One thing I did notice though is that there seems to be a lot of camera footage of these attacks.

Next up I think Ukraine should be eyeing up the Kerch straight bridge or the oil tanks in Crimea.
 
MontyB said:
Assuming this isn't an April fool's day prank I am still hoping to see a missile take out a wall on the Kremlin and hear from the Russians that it was a training exercise.

One thing I did notice though is that there seems to be a lot of camera footage of these attacks.

Next up I think Ukraine should be eyeing up the Kerch straight bridge or the oil tanks in Crimea.
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Yes, take out that bridge and similar fuel/ammo depots in Donbas or on the Russian side of Donbas.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, take out that bridge and similar fuel/ammo depots in Donbas or on the Russian side of Donbas.
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My personal belief is that the greatest threat is from the south hence taking out fuel in the Crimea pretty much brings that front to a halt, just taking out the rail portion of the Kerch straight bridge would be a bonus although Russia still has shipping in that area which is why I think they need to hit the naval refuelling facilities in the region.
The big problem for Ukraine is that it is surrounded on three sides, it can't afford to relax anywhere so hitting transport infrastructure (rail, bridges etc) in southern Russia is important even if it is just locking down engineers repairing them at least they aren't building pipelines into Ukraine.
 
MontyB said:
My personal belief is that the greatest threat is from the south hence taking out fuel in the Crimea pretty much brings that front to a halt, just taking out the rail portion of the Kerch straight bridge would be a bonus although Russia still has shipping in that area which is why I think they need to hit the naval refuelling facilities in the region.
The big problem for Ukraine is that it is surrounded on three sides, it can't afford to relax anywhere so hitting transport infrastructure (rail, bridges etc) in southern Russia is important even if it is just locking down engineers repairing them at least they aren't building pipelines into Ukraine.
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Trying to sink the Russian ships while they are in the ports can be good. It takes a while to clear the ports. I want the Ukrainians to hit railroad hubs in Russia, Donbas, and Crimea. It would be good if the Ukrainians can reduce the Russian artillery as well
 
With the reports of Russian soldiers murdering civilians as they withdraw, reminds me of the Soviet murders of Polish Officers in the forest of Katyn and the rapes of Ukrainian women exactly like the rapes of German women during WW2, convinces the Russians are a bunch of savages.

Mutilated corpses of children found in cellar, booby-trapped bodies strewn in roads and civilians executed with their hands and feet bound: Putin's war crimes are revealHorrific images emerged of bodies strewn across the streets of commuter town Bucha, which was retaken by Ukrainian forces on Friday.

The town's mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, last night said: 'We have already buried 280 people in mass graves.'

The corpses of at least 20 men in civilian clothes were found lying along a single residential street. One had his hands tied behind his back with white cloth. A Ukrainian passport lay on the ground nearby.

'All these people were shot, killed, in the back of the head,' Mr Fedoruk said.

He added that many of the bodies had white bandages on them 'to show that they were unarmed' and that a 14-year-old boy was among the dead.

He claimed some of the victims had tried to cross the Buchanka river to Ukrainian-controlled territory and that entire families had perished, including 'children, women, grandmothers. These are the consequences of Russian occupation,' he added.

Kira Rudik, an MP, posted a video of the horrifying scene on Twitter and wrote: 'Russians were killing people with their hands tied behind their backs and left the bodies near the road. I am shaking.'

Bucha, a suburban town of 28,000 people, has been left devastated by the fighting.

Shell explosions have blown gaping holes in apartment blocks and crushed cars litter the streets, according to the first journalists to reach the town.

Sixteen of the 20 corpses found on one street were lying either on the pavement or by the verge. Three were sprawled in the middle of the road and another was lying in the courtyard of a house. One appeared to have been killed as he rode his bicycle.

If Putin is taken to task for war crimes, how is he going to be arrested and tried, unless of course his own people do it, which I very much doubt.

I've always thought that during WW2 the Allies should have had a cease fire with Germany and leave them to sort out the Soviets once and for all, even supplying them war material.. Staling accused Britain of being unwilling to fight, despite the fact Stalin sent a telegram to Hitler congratulating him for his army reaching Dunkirk.
 
So despite Putin's threats it looks like Finland is off to NATO and in a pretty quick fashion with 60% support up from 34% a short while ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-joining-nato-appears-closer-despite-russia-threats-2022-4

If they do choose to do this I think NATO needs to have the welcome bottle of champagne ready to go on reciept of the application, that said I am not sure Russia will own a functional tank in 3 months.

This was always going to be the result of Russian threats.
 
MontyB said:
So despite Putin's threats it looks like Finland is off to NATO and in a pretty quick fashion with 60% support up from 34% a short while ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-joining-nato-appears-closer-despite-russia-threats-2022-4

If they do choose to do this I think NATO needs to have the welcome bottle of champagne ready to go on reciept of the application, that said I am not sure Russia will own a functional tank in 3 months.

This was always going to be the result of Russian threats.
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Apparently there has been joint training exercises with Finland and Sweden, there has been remarks that both Finland and Sweden might join NATO. Both would be a good asset for NATO
 
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