Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

What about this...n 1994, Ukraine had a gigantic nuclear arsenal until it signed the Budapest Memorandum and handed over 1,600 nuclear weapons left over from the former Soviet Union to Russia in exchange for a peace treaty and a guarantee never to be invaded or threatened.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I agree with what you are saying. This shelling of residential areas must have consequences. I have changed my mind about the no-fly zone and perhaps not stopping with a no-fly zone because a no fly zone will not stop the Russian artillery. I read the US will provide Ukraine with long range air defense systems. I also think the Ukrainians shall get the MIG's and the SU's planes. They can probably not fight back the Russian planes, but they can make it more dangerous for the Russian planes. If the Ukraine get the air defense systems and maybe the planes it can get the no-fly zone without having NATO doing it for them.

I saw the Russians are constructing a fuel pipeline, it will be a nice target for the "kamikaze" drones the US are providing Ukraine with.
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I dont support the no fly zone as it will put NATO aircraft into direct contact with Russian counterparts but it also means that they would have to put Russian airbases out of commission and that is a step to far in my opinion.

With regards to the pipeline this is why I would like to see Ukraine take the war into Russia attacking transport hubs, fuel depot's and supply points in southern Russia, I also think hitting the Black Sea Fleet and its support facilities is also a priority.

George said:
They have violated neutrality by allowing Russia to use their territory to invade.
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I also read that Belarus pulled out of supporting the invasion after it's military refused to take part.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/03...vented-country-from-joining-ukraine-invasion/

George said:
What about this...n 1994, Ukraine had a gigantic nuclear arsenal until it signed the Budapest Memorandum and handed over 1,600 nuclear weapons left over from the former Soviet Union to Russia in exchange for a peace treaty and a guarantee never to be invaded or threatened.
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Yes, they failed to understand one of life's great maxim's, never trust a politician.
 
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I3BrigPvSk said:
Putin and Erdogan spoke yesterday and Putin had these demands to end the war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754
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The thing is how can anyone trust Putin, he has signed several treaties agreeing to respect Ukrainian borders and broken every one of them why the hell would they sign another one?
Basically he will agree to something and then next week decide he wants another chunk, strangely I think that "IF" there is any chance Ukraine could push Russia back and inflict serious losses then I think they should stay in the fight but only if they can get Russia going backward.


I3BrigPvSk said:
I watched this video and i saw something interesting in it.

One of the BMP's is the old BMP 1. Are the Russian losing so many IFV's they are taking out old BMP's out of storage?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryCBcq_qxk
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I think a lot of the equipment the Russians are equipped with depends on the unit itself, I was watching a breakdown of armoured losses the other day, I wish I could remember where I saw it.
 
I think Ukraine is more or less forced to accept the Crimea and Donbas are gone when they can't take these two regions back. The "Finlandization" of Ukraine can be harder for the Ukrainians to accept when they want to join EU and NATO and this war has pushed Ukraine further west.

Ukraine can be successful in this war, but it depends on how much more Russia is willing to take. The Russian economy is crashing, the casualty rates are getting higher and higher. It also depends on what happens in the Russian government if the other members of it begin to view Putin as a problem. There are many "if" but I believe the Ukrainians can force the Russians to quit when the Russians realize they can't continue the war and a stalemate is somewhat a win for the Ukrainians.
 
If anyone in the Ukraine has got one of those Russian built trucks, there 's a crap load of spare wheels he/she can liberate:p
 
Strangely enough "Budapest Memorandum" doesn't seem to Google. Wonder who & what guarantees were made, specifically.
 
In all honesty who believes that Ukraine will accept giving up the Crimea and other territory to ensure a peace treaty with Russia? Bearing in mind the Russians are not know for keeping to any treaty of any kind.
 
BritinBritain said:
In all honesty who believes that Ukraine will accept giving up the Crimea and other territory to ensure a peace treaty with Russia? Bearing in mind the Russians are not know for keeping to any treaty of any kind.
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I think they will have to accept it in the end but I also think they have a chance of making this treaty work because of the fight they have put up this time, Russia went into this thinking it would be another Georgia or Crimea and what they got was Finland, I am not sure they are going to want to come back for another round.

Unfortunately for Ukraine they defend brilliantly but they have no real method of attack and you can't win a war by gradually retreating you do have to counter attack and retake ground, if the west was serious about getting Ukraine through this they need medium and long-range capability, the ability to hit logistics and personnel targets in Southern Russia/Crimea and extend Russian supply lines, casualties further back.
If they can disrupt supplies, reinforcements and hit the Black Sea Fleet outside Ukraine that will amplify the problems at the front and give them a greater chance to retake ground.

On the other hand Putin must be confused and disappointed, there he is with his gunslinger walk, making threats to all and sundry, telling people how well things are going and how tough he is, meanwhile the rest of the world is wondering whether he has had a stroke, suffering from "COVID fog" or just had a mental breakdown.
 
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MontyB said:
I think they will have to accept it in the end but I also think they have a chance of making this treaty work because of the fight they have put up this time, Russia went into this thinking it would be another Georgia or Crimea and what they got was Finland, I am not sure they are going to want to come back for another round.
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Ukrain put up a bloody good fight, quite frankly I dont see them taking Russian occupation of their territory sitting down, I wouldnt mind betting that Russia will have Ukrainian partisan attacks on their assets.

Who was it who said ""Taking a country is easy, holding it is the difficult part."


MontyB said:
Unfortunately for Ukraine they defend brilliantly but they have no real method of attack and you can't win a war by gradually retreating you do have to counter attack and retake ground, if the west was serious about getting Ukraine through this they need medium and long-range capability, the ability to hit logistics and personnel targets in Southern Russia/Crimea and extend Russian supply lines, casualties further back.

If they can disrupt supplies, reinforcements and hit the Black Sea Fleet outside Ukraine that will amplify the problems at the front and give them a greater chance to retake ground.

On the other hand Putin must be confused and disappointed, there he is with his gunslinger walk, making threats to all and sundry, telling people how well things are going and how tough he is, meanwhile the rest of the world is wondering whether he has had a stroke, suffering from "COVID fog" or just had a mental breakdown.
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Its a pity the west didnt supply Ukraine with the kit to hit Russian rail heads and support depots in Russia itself, and maybe a few A10's thrown in for good measure.

As for Putin, he's a dangerous bugger, I'm surprised he's still in power despite all the propaganda that the people are behind him
 
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MontyB said:
An interesting overview of recent events in Ukraine, seems Russia is having problems all over and I get the feeling that if Ukraine had the ability/capacity to carry out a properly supported operation Russia would be in trouble.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20


From what I can gather the Russians have reinvented Sitzkrieg.

I also found some information in this interesting

logistics analysis
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Looks like the Russians have got a rubbish logistics system as well as a crap preventative maintenance system. Its no wonder their equipment is going nowhere fast
 
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