Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

BritinBritain said:
Looks like the Russians have got a rubbish logistics system as well as a crap preventative maintenance system. Its no wonder their equipment is going nowhere fast
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I begin to see quite old Russian vehicles, I wonder why. The MTLB is quite old, but it is still used, but I begin to see the BMP 1 and I didn't expect to see it being used by the Russian army.

The war seems to have turned to be a war of attrition, when the Russian offensive has been stalled and they turn to strike against urban areas instead of trying to neutralize the Ukrainian armed forces. The Russian seem to try to hit the Ukrainian supply lines.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I begin to see quite old Russian vehicles, I wonder why. The MTLB is quite old, but it is still used, but I begin to see the BMP 1 and I didn't expect to see it being used by the Russian army.

The war seems to have turned to be a war of attrition, when the Russian offensive has been stalled and they turn to strike against urban areas instead of trying to neutralize the Ukrainian armed forces. The Russian seem to try to hit the Ukrainian supply lines.
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I think this plays into something I have argued for years, the fundamental difference between democratic and authoritarian nations military structure is purpose, democratic nations tend to focus on fighting wars externally while authoritarian nations focus on population control.

Places like Russia, Belarus, Syria, and the countless crap holes of the world run by petty dictators and warlords all have one thing in common, armies heavy on nice shiny armour that look good in a parade but light on flexibility and intelligence, they are designed to crush lightly armed protests and where they can't park a tank on the corner fire at an office block they just plaster it with artillery because the only life that matters to dictators is their own.
 
George said:
How far is Putin going to go?
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Well according to this map he plans on going as far as Moldova...

Lukashenko's map


For some reason, it doesn't show the English translation unless you turn on close captioning.

If you look close enough there is a campaign line from Odessa into Moldova.
 
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BritinBritain said:
I've seen an AVRO Vulcan take out a convoy with parachute retarded bombs, but never seen an A10 do it, i must admit I'd love to see it happen.
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The GAU-8 30mm Gatling would enjoy it. During WWII some A-20 Havocs were modified into "Commerce Destroyers". Thirteen forward firing .50 M-2s plus either para-frags or bigger bombs for skip bombing of ships.
 
George said:
Supposedly Moldova is run by a pro-Putin toady...
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My guess is that the "map" was more a scare tactic than an operational plan or it never would have made it into the public domain.
That said I suspect had the plan gone well connecting the Russian enclave of Transnistria via a land route through Odessa would have been a priority.
 
George said:
The GAU-8 30mm Gatling would enjoy it. During WWII some A-20 Havocs were modified into "Commerce Destroyers". Thirteen forward firing .50 M-2s plus either para-frags or bigger bombs for skip bombing of ships.
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I seem to remember a bomber (B24?) with a sh!te load of 50 cals firing forward. That's going to stuff up someone's day.

A number of Hawker Hurricane in North Africa with fitted with 40mm's under each wing, known as the tank buster, they took out quite a few of Rommel's tanks, the Hawker Typhoon fitted with rockets also did a good job after D Day. It was said it was like a broadside from a warship.
 
MontyB said:
Hmmm I guess this this falls into the category of "it fell off the back of a truck"
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ssias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems

I wonder how much something like that would be worth to western military intelligence, I also wonder what possesses the Russians to leave this sort of thing laying around, at this stage the biggest supplier of military hardware to Ukraine is the Russian military.
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The Russian forces have left a few of the air defense system Panthsir behind too. Are they selling them to the Ukrainians? The Russians were selling some of their stuff during the Chechen wars to the Chechens.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Russian forces have left a few of the air defense system Panthsir behind too. Are they selling them to the Ukrainians? The Russians were selling some of their stuff during the Chechen wars to the Chechens.
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Don't think they have to sell them to the Ukrainians they are just leaving them all over the place, they are starting to remind me of the Iraqis when ISIS showed up.
 
George said:
High ranking casualties https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-strategy-in-ukraine/ar-AAVqstx?ocid=msedgntp
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There is no doubt that Russian tactics are by any stretch of the imagination bad, it is still one of those strange scenario's where no matter how bad they are Russia can't lose and inevitably Ukraine won't win.
My guess is that at some point in the next couple of weeks Russia will begin a new offensive probably in the south that will probably overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

On an interesting note NATO is estimating that Russia has lost 40,000 troops killed, wounded, captured or missing which would be about 25% of their initial force.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ru...n-ukraine-nato-estimates-xyZjWxinMDHzdeRZvAeD
 
It seems the Russians get frostbites. They need German boots, oh wait. They can't buy any.

I heard the Ukrainians are counter attacking around Kyiv and have some successes in these attacks. A Russian amphibious/supply ship has been hit in a port occupied by the Russians. I would try to attack the bridge between Crimean and Russia, that would interrupt the Russian supply lines even more.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It seems the Russians get frostbites. They need German boots, oh wait. They can't buy any.

I heard the Ukrainians are counter attacking around Kyiv and have some successes in these attacks. A Russian amphibious/supply ship has been hit in a port occupied by the Russians. I would try to attack the bridge between Crimean and Russia, that would interrupt the Russian supply lines even more.
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Strangely enough even the Germans are lacking boots,

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news...New-Arms-Shipments-to-Kiev-20220323-0014.html

"Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, has said that the government will press arms manufacturers to ensure further deliveries since Germany's armed forces have been in a state of neglect for many years and its troops reportedly have a shortage of munition, equipment and even boots. "

Yes well I have long argued that Ukraine needs a long range strike capacity, I would be inclined to go after oil and fuel storage in and around Sevastopol, any pipelines they can hit as well as rail hubs in Crimea and southern Russia.
 
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The Russian seem to change its strategy in Ukraine. The main goal seem to be Donbas and the land bridge between Crimea and Donbas. A sign they are mitigating the failure of the offensive. It is quite amazing they haven't solved their logistical problems yet. The Ukrainians may attacking their supply lines and it is pretty hard to conduct military operations without a functional logistical system in place. Every artillery shell or rocket salvo fired against urban areas aren't fired against the Ukrainian forces, so the latter gets a respite and that can be quite dangerous for the Russians.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Russian seem to change its strategy in Ukraine. The main goal seem to be Donbas and the land bridge between Crimea and Donbas. A sign they are mitigating the failure of the offensive. It is quite amazing they haven't solved their logistical problems yet. The Ukrainians may attacking their supply lines and it is pretty hard to conduct military operations without a functional logistical system in place. Every artillery shell or rocket salvo fired against urban areas aren't fired against the Ukrainian forces, so the latter gets a respite and that can be quite dangerous for the Russians.
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The battles around Kherson are interesting, if Ukraine can retake the city then a large number of Russian forces north and west of the city will effectively be caught in a "Falaise Gap" type scenario and that would be ugly for them.

I have no idea what is going through Russian minds right now though, are they seriously trying to push the idea that all of this was part of a cunning plan to degrade the Ukrainian military so that they could focus on the Donbas area?

Someone in the Kremlin thought here's a plan, let's launch attacks all over Ukraine, look as inept as possible, lose a shit ton of equipment and troops, become international pariahs, destroy our economy and turn our military into a laughing stock worldwide in order to "hopefully" take over two provinces.
After hearing that I am amazed Russian troops aren't shooting their way into the Kremlin as we speak.
 
Ukraine is ready to discuss neutrality to end this war, but the Ukrainian president said the Ukrainians must have a say in the matter through a referendum. He also wants security guarantees. That is a problem, who can trust the Russia after this war.

If Ukraine agrees to be neutral, it can't join EU either. The Lisbon treaty contains a defense agreement.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Ukraine is ready to discuss neutrality to end this war, but the Ukrainian president said the Ukrainians must have a say in the matter through a referendum. He also wants security guarantees. That is a problem, who can trust the Russia after this war.

If Ukraine agrees to be neutral, it can't join EU either. The Lisbon treaty contains a defense agreement.
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Ukraine wants security guarantees from the west and east...
Kyiv wants the five permanent members of the UN security council — the US, UK, France, China and Ukraine’s aggressor Russia — to act as guarantors along with Germany and Turkey.

That would commit those seven nations to sending troops to defend it in the event of a future attack.
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https://www.ft.com/content/b153eb2e-c4ed-4d9d-b854-cbfa98038f21
 
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I3BrigPvSk said:
Ukraine is ready to discuss neutrality to end this war, but the Ukrainian president said the Ukrainians must have a say in the matter through a referendum. He also wants security guarantees. That is a problem, who can trust the Russia after this war.

If Ukraine agrees to be neutral, it can't join EU either. The Lisbon treaty contains a defense agreement.
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I wouldn't believe Putin if he told me my bum was on fire. I don't think the Russians during the Soviet and even the Tsar era have kept to a treaty.

How and when this war is going to end? Your guess is as good as mine
 
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