If the dictator of Kazakhstan is unpopular, 3000 or 12000 Russian soldiers will not help him to survive .
Discussions
As usual the media are trying to make money from the events by creating an artificial war hysteria : when the Soviets invaded in December 1979 Afghanistan, no one in Europe was talking about economic sanctions against the USSR.The Biden of those days ( Carter ) stopped the export of grain to the USSR,the US farmers lost a lot of money,Carter lost the election, the Argentine generals and US ally Canada hurried to sell grain and the new president, Reagan, stopped the sanctions .
The journalists and politicians who demand to exclude Russia from Swift are as usual unaware of the potential catastrophic consequences this can have for the world economy .
And when Obama and his satellites attacked Libya and Syria, no one in Russia was talking about sanctions against the US .
WHY should our population suffer because Putin invaded a country only few people in Europe can show on a map ?
We did nothing in 1979, why should we hurt ourselves today ?
The journalists and politicians who demand to exclude Russia from Swift are as usual unaware of the potential catastrophic consequences this can have for the world economy .
And when Obama and his satellites attacked Libya and Syria, no one in Russia was talking about sanctions against the US .
WHY should our population suffer because Putin invaded a country only few people in Europe can show on a map ?
We did nothing in 1979, why should we hurt ourselves today ?
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
How many Russian troops do you need to shoot unarmed civilians?
I think you will find we live in a very different world to that of the last millennium I could argue the reasons why appeasement doesn't work but I would have assumed that someone flying the flag of any European country would already have known the pitfalls of appeasement.
The west clearly agreed with your "why should we hurt ourselves" strategy when Hitler marched into the Rhineland, it still agreed when it signed over Sudatenland but it realized that it was a failing strategy when he took over the rest of Czechoslovakia and a few months later the world was at war because he wanted Poland, well we did nothing about Putin's invasion of Georgia, we did as much when he marched into Crimea and now he wants the rest of the Ukraine, next stop Poland?
Geographically ironic isn't it.
Don't get me wrong I believe that we should do all in our power to avoid war but there comes a time when war is unavoidable short of surrender and I think we are fast approaching that time.
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1 France did nothing when Hitler marched into the Rhineland,because
a there was nothing that it could do
b the remilitarisation of the Rhineland was no threat to France .
Britain did nothing because
a Britain had not the power to do something
b because it was not Britain's business
c because it was not a threat to Britain .
2 The Sudetenland : following the principles of self-determination of Versailles, its inhabitants had the right to secede from CZ.And this secession was not a threat for Britain and France .
3 The West did not realize that appeasement was failing when Hitler took over Bohemia and Moravia, they knew already in October 1938 that he would do it and they did not care about it : they won in WW1 without the Czechs, thus why would they need the Czechs 20 year later ?
4 Poland :
a the world was not at war when Hitler invaded Poland, but France and Britain were at war .
And the reasons why B + F declared war,were and are very ,very questionable, as the disappearance of Poland was not threatening British and French interests : in 1914 Poland did not exist and this was very good for France as because of this Germany and Russia had a common border .
Before 1914 no one would have declared war because Germany invaded Poland .
The Wilsonian reasons for the declaration of war on Germany were suicidal,hypocritical and stupid .
When Iraq invaded Iran , no one declared war on Iraq. Thus: why declare war on Germany in 1939 ?
These reasons were suicidal,because on 8 May 1945 the USSR had taken the place of Germany and the British and French Empire were gone .
Chamberlain was not PM of Poland and Britain had no obligations to Poland .
It is the same for Ukraine. Thus, why not remaining neutral ?
Today's Poland will not be attacked as it is a member of NATO and as Russia is to weak .
And, about the complaint that we did nothing when Putin occupied Crimea ( as reaction on the CIA lead coup of Euromaidan ) : why should we have done something and what could we do ?
Don't forget that Crimea was a part of Russia till the Kremlin gave it,without asking what its inhabitants wanted, to Ukraine in 1954 .
The truth is that Ukraine is better off without Crimea with its strong Russian population .
What Obama and his allies refused and still refuse to admit is that multiculturalism is a mortal danger,thus that an ethnically monocultural Ukraine is better than an Ukraine with a strong hostile minority .
If they are unarmed,there is no need for 12000 or 3000 Russians .
If they are armed, 12000 or 3000 Russians will not suffice .
In WW 2 the Germans had in the occupied countries one soldier for 100 unarmed citizens .
If there are 3000 Russians in Kazakhstan,this means 1 soldier for 1000 square km .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I will be honest I think we are starting to go around in circles here, how about we agree to disagree and we will find out who is right over the next few years.
I don't disagree with your Crimean argument and as a single action it would not bother me but when you add the Donbas provocations, the Georgian invasion and now the Ukrainian invasion I think the Crimea was just another step in a pattern of Russian aggression.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
So what is the Swedish take on the strange warnings to Sweden and Finland about joining NATO?
Having been to Finland I am not sure it would be a good move to upset them as experience tells me they are all crazy but have no interest in NATO, however, it is hard to know what is going through Swedish minds as the last war they took part in was 208 years ago so I am assuming they haven't suddenly become militarist.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
I can't say anything about how the Finns react to it, but according the polls; more Finns want to join NATO, it is the same here in Sweden. We have an election to our parliament later this year. It will be an election about this, I guess. A war in Europe changes everything.
Sweden has a very close military cooperation with Finland and bilateral defense treaties with the US and the UK.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
The Finns have remained relatively quiet on this matter which given their position and Putin's current random actions is probably the safest thing to do.
I was surprised to read that both Lithuania and Sweden are now sending military equipment to Ukraine, that seems pretty ballsy for Lithuania given its size and location and Sweden seems to be dropping any pretence of neutrality on this as well.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/02/28/sweden-arms-ukraine/
So I guess given Germany and the EU's moves today are we going to see this escalate into something bigger as both sides seem determined to ratchet up the pressure.
And I am not sure what to make of a Ukrainian Foreign Legion, real or publicity stunt?
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/803351.html
And now a silly little ***hypothetical*** primarily because I love irony, what would happen if say Poland moved troops into western Ukraine as "peacekeepers" or to set up a "safe haven" for Ukrainian civilians?
Given the past of both countries, I doubt that this would be a wise decision :
1920 : Russians, Poles and Ukrainians killed each other by tens of thousands and joined each other to kill the Jews
1944 was a rehearsal of 1920 :OUN and UPA killed 100000 Poles ( at least ) and the Poles killed 20000 Ukrainians ( at least ) .
The Jews had already disappeared .
There are still people in Poland who want to annex the Western part of Ukraine and there are a lot of Ukrainians who want to kill/expel the Russians living in East Ukraine .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
It is interesting as it is an area I know little about historically but given that Poland is the country Ukrainians seem to be heading to I figured they had a more friendly disposition, but given that within the next few days Belarusian troops appear to be joining the Russian land grab it may be a way of limiting their capacity.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
This war changes everything, I suppose. Sweden has also the NLAW anti-tank weapon so I guess we will give some of ours to the Ukrainians. I have argued for giving them the mortar round Strix as well. Ukraine has the mortars that can fire them. We might give them the AT-4 as well.
It will be a pull in Finland later this week, it will be interesting to see what the Finns are thinking about this war and NATO. The Russian threat gets the opposite effect on the Finns and the Swedes. I wouldn't be surprised if both Finland and Sweden joins NATO pretty soon.
I have heard discussions about a no-fly zone in the Western part of Ukraine, but I doubt NATO or EU want to have "peace-keepers" in the Western part of Ukraine. I like the idea, though.
There are a lot of refugees entering Poland, I have seen young men going in the other direction to join the Ukrainian army. I don't want to call them a Ukrainian Foreign Legion.
Russia wants to prevent Ukraine to join EU and NATO, Russia's actions push Ukraine further west. Putin wanted to divide EU and NATO, the opposite happened.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Ukraine signed the forms to join the EU this morning so that isn't working out well for Putin either.
Regarding the "safe haven" point, the reason I suggested Poland is that they could do it with the support of the Ukrainian government as a method of protecting the residents of Lvov reducing the humanitarian requirements of Europe, it would also secure land corridors via Slovenia and Poland but with Poland being part of NATO and the EU it provides them with an element of protection (not that I think they would need it against what looks like a very inept Russian army).
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
That would make the distribution of the military aid to Ukraine much easier for both the NATO/EU and for the Ukrainians
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
Watching the news on TV I saw a Russian armoured convoy, one of which was flying the old Soviet flag, I guess that shows where their mind set is at and also the armoured Russian vehicle deliberately running over a Ukrainian civilian car, thankfully the driver of the car survived. The Russians have been a pain in the bum for years, quite frankly I hope the Russians have got a ferocious tiger by the tail.
The problem is that in Eastern Europe, the past is still dominating the present .I doubt very much that the Ukrainians would be enthusiastic about the arrival of Polish troops in Ukraine,as a lot of Ukrainians fear that these Poles would remain in Ukraine .
Take Lemberg/Lviv/Lvov:
population in 1939 :60 % Poles, 7 % Ukrainians, the rest Jews .
After the war the Poles were deported to Silesia and the Jews had disappeared .
Now the population is 88 % Ukrainian and 9 % Polish .
If the war ends with the defeat of Russia and the collapse of Ukraine, there is a danger ( for the Ukrainians ) that Poland will demand the Anschluss of Lviv to Poland and that the city will become again Lvov .
Ukraine is in the same situation as Poland before 1939 ( Poland was surrounded by 2 hostile neighbours: Germany and the USSR ) :Ukraine by Poland and Russia.
What would happen if Putin proposed to Poland to have back the territories it lost in September 1939 ,if Poland did not oppose a Russian invasion, and if Poland said yes ?
We would have a partition of Ukraine between Russia and Poland .
And, the West would be helpless : a German invasion of Poland is impossible .
And, about the EU sanctions against Russia : these can be effective if everyone is executing them .
But,what about Austria ? 80 % of its gas is imported from Russia .
Will the Austrian government accept the collapse of its economy for the sake of Ukraine ?
The EU has no army, thus I do no see the benefit in this war for Ukraine to become a member of EU .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I have looked at that car incident a couple of times and I am dubious of the claims that it deliberately ran over the car as it appeared more out of control than anything else and I also question whether it was Russian as it seems odd for a Russian anti-aircraft vehicle to be driving around Kiev with no other support.
I am leaning toward it being an out of control Ukrainian vehicle.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I have an unrelated question about semantics mainly:
You say in 1939 Lvov's population was 60% Poles, 7% Ukrainian and 33% Jewish, to the best of my knowledge Polish and Ukrainian is a determination of nationality, Jewish is a determination of religion as such that 33% must have either been Polish, Ukrainian or anther nationality.
Regarding Austria, will Austria's purchase of gas keep the Russian economy afloat?
If not then it really doesn't matter what Austria does.
Having looked at more information on this it would appear that the EU has voted unanimously in support of these sanctions which indicates Austria is supporting them and understands the consequences that may come with that support.
What this shows is that if it was Putin's aim to further fracture the western world and weaken it then he has badly miscalculated as the one thing he has done is galvanised the western world into a stronger unit, I would be very surprised if we do not see a number of countries putting in quiet applications to NATO over the next couple of months.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I agree with the opening comment, Eastern Europe and the Balkans seem to be hung up on who's family stole a goat from who's 400 years ago, I have no idea why they just cant move on.
However, I don't agree about Poland as its future is now pretty well tied into NATO and the EU which I suspect means more to them than an old city and a few thousand acres of land, if they were to do a Molotov-Ribbentrop type deal with Russia they would lose the protection of NATO and probably EU membership and be left trusting Putin not to want to right the perceived wrongs of the past in a few years.
The West would be no worse off in that scenario, Poland would be at the mercy of Putin and the Germans could still deal with what appears to be a very substandard Russian military should they keep heading West especially with NATO support.
Further to the discussion on sanctions all of Western Europe have now implemented sanctions with the exception of Serbia and what looks to be Bosnia (not sure on that one), hell even the Swiss are getting in on the action now and they only go where the money is.