Discussions

[MontyB]

Maybe we can compare it with Czechoslovakia, but the comparison is pretty week. There was a Czech unit resisting the Germans, but the ethnic Ukrainians will defend their country. What they can achieve is creating a threshold to make any military intervention by the Russians expensive. I don't think we will see any military action before and during the Olympic Games.


I would be more worried if I were in any of the Baltic states. The West could implement the economic sanctions now.

I think it is time we called Putin's hand and moved Western troops into Ukraine, see how his nation will react to demands that he stand down his forces or the West will establish a permanent presence there.

The reality is that the West's procrastinating is emboldening both Russia and China and it is time we put up or shut up.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I think it is better to arm the Ukrainians instead. They received AT-missiles, they are quite easy to operate. It is late to provide the Ukrainians with advanced air defense and artillery systems when it takes longer to train them to operate such systems.

I think the Ukrainians got artillery radar awhile back, but I am not sure.

The Russians have deployed amphibian assault ships to the Black Sea or they are on the way to the Black Sea. It can be good to give the Ukrainians anti-ship missiles. The Hellfire missile can be used as anti-ship missiles.

I assume the Ukrainians get and provide with intelligence as well.

I don't think economic sanctions will deter Putin, Russia will get closer to China and the Chinese might do something when they get Russian support.

 

[MontyB]

I don't think economic sanctions will deter Putin, Russia will get closer to China and the Chinese might do something when they get Russian support.

Economic sanctions are a waste of time, the only solution to this issue that wont see Putin win is troops on the ground or more immediately aircraft in the air.

I firm and unflinching response from the West would quieten both Russian and China's military ambition, at the moment they are both banking on carrying out small actions that get them a stern talking to from the West but nothing else, I think we have reached a point where a line in the sand needs to be drawn and maybe Ukraine it where it should be drawn.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I kind of agree with you. This land grabbing needs to stop and Ukraine might be the place for it, but I think it is the Ukrainians fight, not ours.

In Asia, I wonder how China would react if the US and its allies recognized Taiwan as an independent and sovereign country

 

[MontyB]

I kind of agree with you. This land grabbing needs to stop and Ukraine might be the place for it, but I think it is the Ukrainians fight, not ours.

In Asia, I wonder how China would react if the US and its allies recognized Taiwan as an independent and sovereign country

Personally I think Taiwan should be recognized, it is time to stop pandering to these emotionally fragile countries as the more we placate them the more fragile and demanding they seem to become.

Let's be honest Putin is only stirring up trouble to strengthen his position at home as Russia seems to have a hardon for strongmen.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I read the support for Putin in Russia was pretty low because of COVID. What can better than portraying the outside world as a threat and getting the people to rally around the flag.

 

[MontyB]

I read the support for Putin in Russia was pretty low because of COVID. What can better than portraying the outside world as a threat and getting the people to rally around the flag.

True but that wanes pretty quickly once the body bags start coming home and/or you have to sign an agreement accepting the oppositions borders including the bit in the east you are trying to steal and NATO is moving in next door.
Putin is very close to painting himself into a corner and has almost reached a point where no matter what he does NATO will be the winner (Ukraine might not be but NATO certainly will).

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

True but that wanes pretty quickly once the body bags start coming home and/or you have to sign an agreement accepting the oppositions borders including the bit in the east you are trying to steal and NATO is moving in next door.
Putin is very close to painting himself into a corner and has almost reached a point where no matter what he does NATO will be the winner (Ukraine might not be but NATO certainly will).

I think Putin underestimated the West's reaction, the West didn't do much when Russia captured Crimean. But now they react and providing the Ukrainians with military hardware so I agree, Putin has painted himself into a corner.

 

[BritinBritain]

I think Putin underestimated the West's reaction, the West didn't do much when Russia captured Crimean. But now they react and providing the Ukrainians with military hardware so I agree, Putin has painted himself into a corner.

Putin has always been a scumbag in my opinion, for 16 years he was in the KGB, carrying on from the Soviet era he sends Soviet ""Bear"" aircraft into British airspace, when I was in the RAF we had art least one a week test our response time to intercept.

Russians have been agent provocateurs for years.

 

[lljadw]

Economic sanctions are a waste of time, the only solution to this issue that wont see Putin win is troops on the ground or more immediately aircraft in the air.

I firm and unflinching response from the West would quieten both Russian and China's military ambition, at the moment they are both banking on carrying out small actions that get them a stern talking to from the West but nothing else, I think we have reached a point where a line in the sand needs to be drawn and maybe Ukraine it where it should be drawn.

Ukraine is a neutral,corrupt,underdeveloped country that is not essential for our survive .
If Putin want ,let get him have it .
But, I doubt that he would be that stupid to try to conquer and occupy Ukraine with a miserable 100000 men.
To conquer Ukraine,he would need more than 500000 men,which he has not .
To occupy Ukraine for the next decades,he would need more than 500000 men,for several decades ,which he has not .
And,where would he get the resources and money to conquer and occupy Ukraine ? There is only one solution : raising taxes and thus losing votes .
Besides : WHY would he invade Ukraine? He had the opportunity to do it 20 years ago and he didn't do it . Why should he do it now ?
There is no benefit for him ,only a big risk .

 

[MontyB]

Putin has always been a scumbag in my opinion, for 16 years he was in the KGB, carrying on from the Soviet era he sends Soviet ""Bear"" aircraft into British airspace, when I was in the RAF we had art least one a week test our response time to intercept.

Russians have been agent provocateurs for years.

To be fair the Russians and Chinese see America the same way and with good reason, the fact is that all three of them are constantly stirring up trouble somewhere.
Let's not forget that it was Victoria Mulan hand out food at protests in Ukraine in 2013.

Ukraine is a neutral,corrupt,underdeveloped country that is not essential for our survive .
If Putin want ,let get him have it .
But, I doubt that he would be that stupid to try to conquer and occupy Ukraine with a miserable 100000 men.
To conquer Ukraine,he would need more than 500000 men,which he has not .
To occupy Ukraine for the next decades,he would need more than 500000 men,for several decades ,which he has not .
And,where would he get the resources and money to conquer and occupy Ukraine ? There is only one solution : raising taxes and thus losing votes .
Besides : WHY would he invade Ukraine? He had the opportunity to do it 20 years ago and he didn't do it . Why should he do it now ?
There is no benefit for him ,only a big risk .

I imagine that was the thinking behind Britain and France when it signed over Czechoslovakia to the Germans in 1938 as well and where did that get us, we tacitly gave away the Crimea to appease Putin now he wants more and at some point we have say no, Ukraine is a better place to draw a line than Poland in my opinion.

I am not sure why you think he would need half a million troops to overrun Ukraine, he has air superiority before it even kicks off and the Ukrainian military at this stage are mostly low grade conscripts with out dated weaponry, now that the west is pumping equipment into the Ukraine Putin's window of opportunity is shrinking so if he is going to do something he will have to do it soon.

Further to this I doubt he wants to occupy Ukraine for months let alone decades, I would bet his plan is to get in install a pro-Russian government, annex the Don region and get out before looking for the next point of opportunity.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

It is much better if Putin is stopped now instead, but this crisis is not only about Ukraine, it is about all countries have the legal right to choose what organizations they want to belong to. If Ukraine wants to apply for a membership in the EU and NATO, they are free to apply for it. Furthermore, this has nothing or very little to do with NATO's expansion and how Russia perceive NATO. Russia's military power is more than enough to protect Russia from NATO, even if Ukraine became a member. It has more to do with having prosperous neighbors with a higher standard of living as neighbors. It can undermine his own political power if the Russians begin to demand the same.

The Ukrainians have closed off the water supply to the Crimean peninsula. I believe the attack will come from the Crimean and the main goal is to turn the water on and to connect the Donbass with the Crimean peninsula, but not before the Olympic Games in China.

 

[lljadw]

To be fair the Russians and Chinese see America the same way and with good reason, the fact is that all three of them are constantly stirring up trouble somewhere.
Let's not forget that it was Victoria Mulan hand out food at protests in Ukraine in 2013.



I imagine that was the thinking behind Britain and France when it signed over Czechoslovakia to the Germans in 1938 as well and where did that get us, we tacitly gave away the Crimea to appease Putin now he wants more and at some point we have say no, Ukraine is a better place to draw a line than Poland in my opinion.

I am not sure why you think he would need half a million troops to overrun Ukraine, he has air superiority before it even kicks off and the Ukrainian military at this stage are mostly low grade conscripts with out dated weaponry, now that the west is pumping equipment into the Ukraine Putin's window of opportunity is shrinking so if he is going to do something he will have to do it soon.


Further to this I doubt he wants to occupy Ukraine for months let alone decades, I would bet his plan is to get in install a pro-Russian government, annex the Don region and get out before looking for the next point of opportunity.

A pro-Russian government in a Russian satellite will not last one week,without a Russian occupation army .
See the examples of Eastern Europe in 1991,of Afghanistan.He will be forced to occupy Ukraine, otherwise he will lose it .And Russia is better off without Ukraine as Ukraine is better off without Crimea .
About Crimea : WE (the West ) did not give it away to Putin, Crimea did not belong to us,but to Ukraine and as the transfer of Crimea was not a danger for us, there was no reason to fight for it .
It was the same for Czechoslovakia .
Oh yes 100000 men are insufficient to conquer a country of 35 million inhabitants who will all be transformed in potential partisans .

 

[lljadw]

It is much better if Putin is stopped now instead, but this crisis is not only about Ukraine, it is about all countries have the legal right to choose what organizations they want to belong to. If Ukraine wants to apply for a membership in the EU and NATO, they are free to apply for it. Furthermore, this has nothing or very little to do with NATO's expansion and how Russia perceive NATO. Russia's military power is more than enough to protect Russia from NATO, even if Ukraine became a member. It has more to do with having prosperous neighbors with a higher standard of living as neighbors. It can undermine his own political power if the Russians begin to demand the same.

The Ukrainians have closed off the water supply to the Crimean peninsula. I believe the attack will come from the Crimean and the main goal is to turn the water on and to connect the Donbass with the Crimean peninsula, but not before the Olympic Games in China.

1 There is no proof that Putin wants to go farther,thus there is no need to stop him ,
2 Ukraine (not ) having the right to choose what organisations it want to belong to ,is not our business,and also not a reason to fight for :we must only fight if our interests are threatened and a Russian attack on Ukraine is not threatening our interests .A Russian attack on Ukraine will only hurt Russian interests .
A Russian attack on Ukraine would before 1914 not raise eyebrows ,because statesmen before 12914 were realists .
We did not fight when Saddam attacked Iran,when the neighbours of Zaire invaded her,when China attacked Vietnam,etc,etc ,thus, why would we fight if Putin would invade Ukraine .

The only way to survive is to remember the following : if you want eternal peace,you will get eternal war .
And the Western policies since 1919 continue to prove this .
We have intervened everywhere on earth to impose our ideology and the result is a total failure .
Besides : NO European country will do something :sanctions are excluded as we are dependent on Russian gas and if the electors are denied food and warming they will held responsible the governments .
Last point :the standard of living in Ukraine is not higher than that in Russia ,but lower,much lower .

 

[MontyB]

A pro-Russian government in a Russian satellite will not last one week,without a Russian occupation army .
See the examples of Eastern Europe in 1991,of Afghanistan.He will be forced to occupy Ukraine, otherwise he will lose it .And Russia is better off without Ukraine as Ukraine is better off without Crimea .
About Crimea : WE (the West ) did not give it away to Putin, Crimea did not belong to us,but to Ukraine and as the transfer of Crimea was not a danger for us, there was no reason to fight for it .
It was the same for Czechoslovakia .
Oh yes 100000 men are insufficient to conquer a country of 35 million inhabitants who will all be transformed in potential partisans .

Putin doesn't have to "conquer" Ukraine all he has to do is enough damage to destabilize the government and bring it down, no occupation required.

From the point of view of a full scale invasion you are right he doesn't have numbers on the border and he would need closer to 500000 but at this stage he is playing the intimidation game while moving the material he needs into place.
There is nothing to say invasion is imminent and it is unlikely one would take place within the next 30 days which is why the west needs to make it's decisions now while Putin still has a window to calm things down but he is painting himself into a corner currently.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

It has been a war in Ukraine since 2014, but if there is Russian military intervention into Ukraine, we will most likely see a lot of refugees. But that depends on where the intervention occur and how intense the Russian air attacks are. Russian Air Force, SS-missiles, and hybrid warfare will attack critical infrastructure to bring Ukraine down. Military installations such as air bases, naval bases, command, and control locations, and close air support for their ground forces.

We will see if they have learned anything from the war in Georgia, 2008. The Russian performance in Syria indicate they have learned a lot. But so have the Ukrainians and they have upgraded the armed forces. They can't beat the Russians, but they can make them pay dearly for a military intervention. That is the only thing they can hope for, getting enough of weapons and training so it can deter the Russians.

 

[MontyB]

It has been a war in Ukraine since 2014, but if there is Russian military intervention into Ukraine, we will most likely see a lot of refugees. But that depends on where the intervention occur and how intense the Russian air attacks are. Russian Air Force, SS-missiles, and hybrid warfare will attack critical infrastructure to bring Ukraine down. Military installations such as air bases, naval bases, command, and control locations, and close air support for their ground forces.

We will see if they have learned anything from the war in Georgia, 2008. The Russian performance in Syria indicate they have learned a lot. But so have the Ukrainians and they have upgraded the armed forces. They can't beat the Russians, but they can make them pay dearly for a military intervention. That is the only thing they can hope for, getting enough of weapons and training so it can deter the Russians.

Militarily I am not sure Syria was a success, it showed the limitations of several Russian defense systems (S-300/400 springs to mind) and they didn't really have any significant opposition to fight, Syrian rebels were a pretty diverse bunch ranging from genuine rebels and deserters to terrorists and they spent as much time shooting at each other as they did the Russians.

What they achieved was mostly under the cover of overwhelming artillery and air power which the opposition and little none of.

 

[MontyB]

So where are we at with this war?
I know this will upset some but I think the American tactic of making all Russia's moves public has worked well as Putin clearly prefers the shadows.

Anyway the reason I came back to this thread is that now the Winter Olympics are over Putin is free to act without fear of upsetting China so we enter a different phase of this scenario.

For my part and I accept it probably won't be popular I think the west should have treated this in the same way it did Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and put a western coalition force into Ukraine, this would left Putin with the clear understanding that an invasion of Ukraine means war with the west.

It is my considered opinion that Putin will not stop with Eastern Ukraine and unless a line in the sand is drawn for him we will have to fight him in Poland, Lithuania, Estonia or Germany and I would sooner it be sooner rather than later.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

So where are we at with this war?
I know this will upset some but I think the American tactic of making all Russia's moves public has worked well as Putin clearly prefers the shadows.

Anyway the reason I came back to this thread is that now the Winter Olympics are over Putin is free to act without fear of upsetting China so we enter a different phase of this scenario.

For my part and I accept it probably won't be popular I think the west should have treated this in the same way it did Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and put a western coalition force into Ukraine, this would left Putin with the clear understanding that an invasion of Ukraine means war with the west.

It is my considered opinion that Putin will not stop with Eastern Ukraine and unless a line in the sand is drawn for him we will have to fight him in Poland, Lithuania, Estonia or Germany and I would sooner it be sooner rather than later.

Only the time will tell if he stops with the recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk. Russia deploys units into them.

 

[MontyB]

Only the time will tell if he stops with the recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk. Russia deploys units into them.

He will be over the border within a week is my prediction, my best guess is that he will look to form a land corridor to the Crimea from Donetsk via the city of Mariupol and that will give him total control of the Sea of Azov.

Then he will go quiet for a few years to consolidate that are and either look towards Odessa to completely surround Ukraine or move on the the mineral rich areas in other former Soviet republics.

This is just a repeat of 1935-1939 Russian style, I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't eyeing up the Baltic states but my money is on the mineral rich border area of Kazakhstan next.