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I agree with Putin wants to connect Donbas with Crimea. I think he will go for the parts of Donetsk and Lugansk controlled by Ukraine. Maybe the entire Ukraine east of the river Dnieper (spelling)
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, there are air attacks against military targets in Ukraine. There are conflicting reports about fighting around Kiev.
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Its just came on BBC that Putin has carried out attacks. I'm wondering if Putin is going to stop at Ukraine or push on towards Eastern Germany?

My son suggested that Putin wants a return to a Soviet Communist form of government, I watched on TV protestors against Putin are arrested and chucked into police vehicles. Putin in my opinion is a dangerous bugger, I hope to God he doesnt spark WW3.
 
BritinBritain said:
Its just came on BBC that Putin has carried out attacks. I'm wondering if Putin is going to stop at Ukraine or push on towards Eastern Germany?

My son suggested that Putin wants a return to a Soviet Communist form of government, I watched on TV protestors against Putin are arrested and chucked into police vehicles. Putin in my opinion is a dangerous bugger, I hope to God he doesnt spark WW3.
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Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a geopolitical disaster. One of his demands on NATO is to pull back to where it was before several former Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO.

Putin wants to prevent Ukraine to join NATO and the EU. He is pushing them into NATO and EU with attacking them and making them hostile against Russia for years to come. Russia is probably winning the war, but it will losing the Ukrainians and the peace for a very long time.

Give the Ukrainians more weapons and let the Russians pay dearly for what they are doing.
 
MontyB said:
He will be over the border within a week is my prediction, my best guess is that he will look to form a land corridor to the Crimea from Donetsk via the city of Mariupol and that will give him total control of the Sea of Azov.

Then he will go quiet for a few years to consolidate that are and either look towards Odessa to completely surround Ukraine or move on the the mineral rich areas in other former Soviet republics.

This is just a repeat of 1935-1939 Russian style, I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't eyeing up the Baltic states but my money is on the mineral rich border area of Kazakhstan next.
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1 Kazakhstan is already a Russian ally
2 The Baltics are Nato members and he will not risk WW 3
3 My conclusion is that he has attacked Ukraine because he is in a desperate situation and that he has lost before he started the war .
The Russian economy is hurt by Corona, by the sanctions and by the war ,which cost a lot of money . And what will he gain if he defeats Ukraine ? A country with 35 million hostile people who will start a partisan war which will last decades ( The OUN fought till 1949 against the Soviets ) and his army will answer by killing thousands of civilians and by burning countless towns .
He has only a small professional army that is not strong enough to occupy Ukraine .
I make the following predictions:
there is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in the US and especially in Canada and they will attack Russian targets in and outside Russia : no Russian ambassador will be safe .And the Cheka will do as its predecessors : they will use poisoned umbrellas to kill the leaders of the new OUN in the West .
Or better : Putin's Cheka will try to do as its predecessors,because compared to them,they are only bunglers .
We could also try to answer the question : WHY has Putin started ( at the age of 71 ! ) a war he can't win ?And than, we must look at the beginning ,which is Euromaidan .
For those who have forgotten : Euromaidan was an anti-Russian coup in Ukraine organized by the CIA ,USAID and Soros and this has fortified the position of the ultra in the Kremlin and,the attempt from the West to eliminate Lukachenko has convinced the Kremlin that it had to reply .
 
lljadw said:
1 Kazakhstan is already a Russian ally
2 The Baltics are Nato members and he will not risk WW 3
3 My conclusion is that he has attacked Ukraine because he is in a desperate situation and that he has lost before he started the war .
The Russian economy is hurt by Corona, by the sanctions and by the war ,which cost a lot of money . And what will he gain if he defeats Ukraine ? A country with 35 million hostile people who will start a partisan war which will last decades ( The OUN fought till 1949 against the Soviets ) and his army will answer by killing thousands of civilians and by burning countless towns .
He has only a small professional army that is not strong enough to occupy Ukraine .
I make the following predictions:
there is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in the US and especially in Canada and they will attack Russian targets in and outside Russia : no Russian ambassador will be safe .And the Cheka will do as its predecessors : they will use poisoned umbrellas to kill the leaders of the new OUN in the West .
Or better : Putin's Cheka will try to do as its predecessors,because compared to them,they are only bunglers .
We could also try to answer the question : WHY has Putin started ( at the age of 71 ! ) a war he can't win ?And than, we must look at the beginning ,which is Euromaidan .
For those who have forgotten : Euromaidan was an anti-Russian coup in Ukraine organized by the CIA ,USAID and Soros and this has fortified the position of the ultra in the Kremlin and,the attempt from the West to eliminate Lukachenko has convinced the Kremlin that it had to reply .
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I think it is fairly simple, why does any dictator do anything.
Dictators are all the same, Putin is no different to Hitler, Stalin, Mao or that sad little wannabe Trump, they all have thin skins and large egos.
I also think it would be a stretch to claim Kazakhstan is an Allie given that there are already thousands of Russian troops there propping up another unpopular dictator.
 
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Putin had 20 years to invade Ukraine. Why did he wait so long to do it ? And, WHY did he do it ? He knows very well ( no one said that he is stupid ) that it is a mission impossible : how will he ''pacify '' with 190000 men a country with 35 million hostile people ?
The media try ,as usual, to impress us with sensational stories, but the truth is that we ( including Putin ) ain't see nothing yet : the worst,for Putin, has still to come and will happen after he occupies ( if possible ) the whole of Ukraine .
The OUN fought til 1949 against Stalin, without any help .
Ukraine will become an other Afghanistan .
 
lljadw said:
Putin had 20 years to invade Ukraine. Why did he wait so long to do it ? And, WHY did he do it ? He knows very well ( no one said that he is stupid ) that it is a mission impossible : how will he ''pacify '' with 190000 men a country with 35 million hostile people ?
The media try ,as usual, to impress us with sensational stories, but the truth is that we ( including Putin ) ain't see nothing yet : the worst,for Putin, has still to come and will happen after he occupies ( if possible ) the whole of Ukraine .
The OUN fought til 1949 against Stalin, without any help .
Ukraine will become an other Afghanistan .
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I can't answer why he has taken 20 years to attack Ukraine, I assume it is because for a sizable amount of that time he thought he could coerce the Ukraine into his sphere of influence without an invasion.

I don't share your views on a viable partisan movement forming as unlike WW2 this is an electronic world, drones, satellites and aircraft remove the ability to operate that type of movement on the terrain they have.
 
I sincerely hope the Russians pay a heavy price, as they did when they invaded Finland in 1939.

Sadly, whatever happens, a lot of innocent people are going to die.
 
The West should exclude Russia from the international Banking system swift. But Germany, Hungary, and Italy don't want that.

I heard Russia has agreed upon a meeting in Minsk to negotiate the neutrality of Ukraine after the Ukrainian president offered to discuss a ceasefire. That can be interpreted as the Ukrainians are inflicting a higher amount of casualties than what the Russians have anticipated or the Ukrainian defense has reached its breaking point.
 
MontyB said:
I can't answer why he has taken 20 years to attack Ukraine, I assume it is because for a sizable amount of that time he thought he could coerce the Ukraine into his sphere of influence without an invasion.

I don't share your views on a viable partisan movement forming as unlike WW2 this is an electronic world, drones, satellites and aircraft remove the ability to operate that type of movement on the terrain they have.
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Ukraine will become a second Afghanistan ,and the partisan war in Afghanistan resulted in the retreat of the Soviets and of the US .
Russia can't afford a second defeat .
The difference with Afghanistan is that the Ukrainian partisans will chase and kill Russions over the whole world .
There is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in Canada which is growing up with the myths of the Holodomor . How long will it take them to kill the Russian ambassador,to attack the Russian embassy ?
What would be the reactions in Boston and New York if Britain invaded Ireland?
And, if Zelensky would accept to go to Minsk (which is a modern Canossa ) ,he will be considered as a traitor and suffer the fate of a traitor .
There are millions of Ukrainians waiting to see a Russian and to kill him .
 
lljadw said:
Ukraine will become a second Afghanistan ,and the partisan war in Afghanistan resulted in the retreat of the Soviets and of the US .
Russia can't afford a second defeat .
The difference with Afghanistan is that the Ukrainian partisans will chase and kill Russions over the whole world .
There is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in Canada which is growing up with the myths of the Holodomor . How long will it take them to kill the Russian ambassador,to attack the Russian embassy ?
What would be the reactions in Boston and New York if Britain invaded Ireland?
And, if Zelensky would accept to go to Minsk (which is a modern Canossa ) ,he will be considered as a traitor and suffer the fate of a traitor .
There are millions of Ukrainians waiting to see a Russian and to kill him .
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You may be right but I feel there is a lot of speculation in those statements.

Ukraine realistically cannot win this their only hope is to inflict enough damage/casualties on the Russians to weaken them militarily and weaken Putin enough for the Russians to ditch him.

However, if I was in the Russian military I would be exceedingly worried about having to go up against anyone with a modern well trained military as they are performing extremely badly given their overwhelming firepower and the fact that the west can clearly track Russian forces with relative ease.
 
I don't see why the Russian Army should have to go against a well trained army,as there is no possibility,no danger of a war between the West and Russia : the West is openly abandoning Ukraine ,which makes its sanctions against Russia very hypocritical .
The socialists and greens in Germany will not fight against Russia (besides Germany has no border with Russia ) and without Germany, NATO can do nothing .
 
MontyB said:
I think it is fairly simple, why does any dictator do anything.
Dictators are all the same, Putin is no different to Hitler, Stalin, Mao or that sad little wannabe Trump, they all have thin skins and large egos.
I also think it would be a stretch to claim Kazakhstan is an Allie given that there are already thousands of Russian troops there propping up another unpopular dictator.
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1 Putin is not a dictator (Kim from NK is a dictator ) but an authoritarian ruler.
2 Trump was not an authoritarian ruler .
3 That Hitler,etc had big egos is irrelevant, unless one can prove that their ego dictated their decisions . FDR, De Gaulle, Churchill also had big egos .
4 The position of Hitler, Stalin, Mao ,who were labelled by the Western liberal media as almighty dictators,was weaker in reality, much weaker .
Hitler : his generals refused openly to execute a lot of his orders
Stalin : he was forced to admit that a big part of the Soviet agriculture remained privatized and he was powerless against the secession of Tito .
Mao :after the failure of the Great Leap Forward,he lost a big part of his power and influence .
6 About Kazakhstan : is there any proof that the thousands ( how many ? ) of Russian troops there ,are there to prop up an unpopular dictator ?
 
lljadw said:
I don't see why the Russian Army should have to go against a well trained army,as there is no possibility,no danger of a war between the West and Russia : the West is openly abandoning Ukraine ,which makes its sanctions against Russia very hypocritical .
The socialists and greens in Germany will not fight against Russia (besides Germany has no border with Russia ) and without Germany, NATO can do nothing .
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They won't have a choice if Putin has a go at Poland or the Baltic states and there are already reports of another Russian troop build up around Brest in Belarus which is closer to the Polish border than the Ukrainian one, however that may just be the current war hysteria talking.
 
lljadw said:
6 About Kazakhstan : is there any proof that the thousands ( how many ? ) of Russian troops there ,are there to prop up an unpopular dictator ?
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Well he deployed the 98th Guards Airborne Division, 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, depending on the state of readiness of those units it could be as little 3000 and as high as 12000, my guess would be somewhere in between.

I would also guess that the fact that it is called Bloody January or the January tragedy in Kazakhstan means that it didn't enhance his popularity.
 
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MontyB said:
They won't have a choice if Putin has a go at Poland or the Baltic states and there are already reports of another Russian troop build up around Brest in Belarus which is closer to the Polish border than the Ukrainian one, however that may just be the current war hysteria talking.
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IF : even Stalin knew that he had to be very careful in Poland ,and his repression in Poland did not go as far as in other satellite countries .
And, there is also the fact ( wisely hidden by our media ) that Russia is only a shadow of the former USSR .The Russian active manpower is 1 million men , mostly professionals,because of the strong demographic crisis in Russia .1 million, including navy and air force .190000 are already committed in Ukraine . Where will Putin get additional boots on the ground ?
US active manpower is 1,38 million .All professionals .
 
MontyB said:
Well he deployed the 98th Guards Airborne Division, 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, depending on the state of readiness of those units it could be as little 3000 and as high as 12000, my guess would be somewhere in between.

I would also guess that the fact that it is called Bloody January or the January tragedy in Kazakhstan means that it didn't enhance his popularity.
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12 000 men for a country of 3 million square km with a population of 19 million people !
 
lljadw said:
12 000 men for a country of 3 million square km with a population of 19 million people !
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I would be inclined to think that they were low readiness formations so closer to 3000 than 12000, but either way still thousands.
 
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