Will United States defend Taiwan against Chinese invasion?

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Best analogy I can think of is a married couple. The wife (Taiwan) leaves the husband (China), but never bothers to file for divorce (declare independence). After 50 years of basically having nothing whatsoever to do with each, the wife decides to make it official and files for the divorce. So she tracks him down and hands him divorce papers. The husband pulls out a gun and shoots her (China invading Taiwan).

So OBVIOUSLY the wife was the aggressor. How dare she?

Yeah, that's how logical it is.

EDIT: So I'm feeling that I should counterpoint:
Fun to read your posts.

Get this straight:

1. No matter what, if taiwan does independence, it is war. Point.
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Yes, but why? Is there some reason for China to take such a stand?

2. China will not lose the war, China has all means to take taiwan, if things turn urgly during the war, sorry taiwanese, there will be nukes put in, like USA did in Japan. Of course not hot nukes, just neutron mini nukes to take out any large-scale resistance.
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China can be as proud as you like of their paultry nuclear stockpile, but are they insane where the USSR wasn't? Are they willing to open that pandora's box? The USA has enough nukes to kill every living thing in China several times over, so going nuclear would be pure idiocy. Kinda hard to be cocky when you're dead. Besides, what will China have accomplished by turning Taiwan into an uninhabitable wasteland of gamma fallout (from the Neutron bombs). They gain nothing, and stand to lose everything.

3. Taiwan is taken, USA sactions come, then China collapse? Give me a break to laugh, China was blocked after Korea War by almost ALL Western, so what? China still OK, nobody will die from hunger, and the Communist leaders still drive in Big Cars and live in Villa's, they don't give a dammn sh*t about sanction.
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I did not say that China would collapse, I said that what is in the process of becoming a very strong economic force ends up dying on the vine with nobody to sell their crap to. Since you don't seem to know your economics, I will explain what happens next. All jobs where foreign companies employ Chinese ends. All Chinese exports cease because nobody buys their stuff anymore. This creates a market vacuum that looks exactly like the Great Depression. A very productive economy with nobody buying anything it produces always causes an economic collapse. Siting the Korean War as an example doesn't fit. Currently, China exports and produces a LOT more than it did then. They're market economy is a lot more reliant on exports than the Chinese Communist Party of 1950 ever dreamed of.

4. If Western get crazy with sanctions, OK, China will get crazy too, massive production of all kinds Nukes, flooding all mini nukes plus hot nukes to ALL Western enemies (there are a lot of them in the world). So happy every one.
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The scary thing about this statement is that I don't think you grasp the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction. Once again, its pretty hard to be cocky when you're dead. China's enthusiam toward the strategic nuclear theater is kinda pointless considering.

5. Saint: we start to know more and more about Singpaporens now. To take on you, very easy, we sell nukes to Indonesia and Malaysia, we can missile nukes to Sigpapore city in 2 hours, finish you in 2 hours, happy? Don't be mad, if China is able to assure MAD (you know what MAD means?), then nobody can really bully China at all.
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Right, all your points seem to lead back to nuclear holocaust. Lovely thoughts ... And who on earth was suggesting "bullying" China??
:roll:

6. Last month, Chinese government has announced that they will put MORE money in strategic weapons to assure more MAD, preparing for the ugliest to come. Think about USSR with those nukes, USA didn't dare to confront USSR at all, simply because it is suicide to do that.
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You're got your roles reversed. The Soviet Army was so gigantic, the USA and its allies would have been crazy to have started anything. But the West had one ace in the hole - the assurance that the USA was ready and willing to launch their missiles if the Soviets ever invaded Western Europe. Worked pretty good apparently.

Don't think you always have the upper-hand, Korea War and Vietnam War all have proven what is a paper tiger
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Since all the scenarios you mentioned end in the total nuclear obliteration of China and some hefty obliteration of the US and its allies, who cares who has the "upper hand".

Give peace a chance, don't push too hard, before it is TOO late
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I have to agree with Guy, that's the most hypocritcal thing I ever heard.
 
I suppose I'm not comprehending your analogy. The reason I used the husband/wife annalogy is because marriage is a union. Once, many decades ago, Taiwan and China were the same united country. Sure Taiwan was just a tiny piece and the rest is much larger, but the analogy fits because it all began as a civil war between Mao and the Communists vs Chaing Kai-shek (or however the correct spelling is). Sorta like a marital dispute. Chaing ended up retreating to a tiny corner of China, Formosa, and claimed it as his own. Because world diplomacy was stupid in those days, people were actually willing to recognize Chaing's government as the "official" government of China even though everyone knew it was a boldfaced lie. Because of the confusing circumstances that followed, Taiwan never declared its independence from China back when virtually nothing could have been done to stop them.

Your analogy makes a bit better sense as two brother fighting to the death over an inheritance. The one brother is about to kill the other. The loser runs away. He moves into a family ranch (to fit the analogy) and asks a couple friends to help protect him from his brother coming and killing him. The friends agree to help, not wanting to see their friend get massacred. Neither brother withdraws his claim to ownership of the full inheritance. A generation passes and both men die of old age. The children of the man on the ranch officially declare ownership of the ranch and withdraw their father's ridiculous claim to the rest. The children of the victorious brother, in their indignation to this move, gather their weapons and head over to the ranch and kill all of the children living at the ranch.

Now the question at hand is this: Is it wrong to stop this massacre?

You see, what you are suggesting isn't true. At no point in the proposed scenario is the United States "coming and kicking China's ass". The possible US role in the affair doesn't even exist until China attacks. No, China is doing what it did to Tibet: Attacking, slaughtering and controlling a weak country that hasn't any chance of defending itself. Seriously, does China intend to invade Taiwan with love and flowers and a bunch of signs say "lets just be friends"? No, they're coming with death, destruction and massacre to crush all who dare oppose them. If that's not being the bully, what the hell is??
 
Be very carefull about judging an entire country based only on what one person have posted....
 
Not only 2, if you go to Chinese websites, you will know 99.99% Chinese
are like us about Taiwan :lol:

The real issue here is:
Taiwan as a place of land, belongs to ALL Chinese, both in Mainland and Taiwan. So that part of Chinese in Taiwan (ROC: Republic of China), does not have the right to take that piece of land away without aggreement of Mainland Chinese, if they do, that is called Dirty Selfish, and we Mainland Chinese will kick their sorry as*s. POINT.

Who will recognize a "independence declared Taiwan"? USA? EU?
I am pretty sure no real big countries will recognize it at all, so why the trouble about of this independence stuff?

About Nuke War:
Chinese are very peaceful and kind people in the world. If we treat each other as friends, that's great, but if you try to piss off Chinese, then you have seen how we fought in Korea War.

Also last week, when a jonalist asked a PLA delegation in Beijing about how many times PLA can destroy USA, the General replied: Is ONE time to destroy USA not yet enough? :D

I quote the general's words here simply because I find it so funny that someone is talking about destroying China a couple of time, holly, what is the difference btw killing one once and twice?

As I said: give peace a chance, meaning USA does not send wrong signal to Taiwan (go go go independence, China will do nothing against you, and we USA will help you).
 
If there ever should be a war between USA and China, no one will win anyway.
The whole World will loose....
 
That's an understatement, the whole world would be dead.

The United States is not the aggresor In this scenario, China is, regardless of what the Chinese "opinion" is.
 
Redleg said:
Be very carefull about judging an entire country based only on what one person have posted....
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Yes you are absolutely right, I shouldn't.

But if what I'm reading is correct, that China will use nukes if they start to lose the war then world is in trouble, because there is no way within the next 10 years ( maybe 20 ) that China can make a successful landing in Taiwan, so you know how its going to end up.
 
So the conclusion is:

USA should help creating peace btw the Taiwan Strait, not stirring troubles there by sending wrong messages to the taiwan leaders encouraging them to do silly things.

But anyway, China will have the final say about the taiwan issue, it is purely internal affair (like husband beating up the naughty wife the neigbour has no say there :D)
 
Yes I do! he's beating up my mistress! lol

But if what mr. frog says is true, and most Chinese believe taiwan is their naughty *****, then...... I'd say this Taiwan issue will be round' for awhile.
 
FlyingFrog said:
But anyway, China will have the final say about the taiwan issue, it is purely internal affair (like husband beating up the naughty wife the neigbour has no say there :D)
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I don't know about your country but here in the USA if the neighbour sees a husband beating up his wife they can call the police, even the wife can call the police, and the police can haul the husband to jail.

Chocobo_Blitzer said:
Yes I do! he's beating up my mistress! lol
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lol

This might be more of a correct assesment.
 
You see Flying Frog, the underlying problem is that the PRC has a very bad record of unprovoked violence. Nowhere is that more evident than with Tibet, which is still being brutalized in spite of everything. You're looking at millions dead in a country that didn't have that many millions to begin with. In that situation, the argument that its "part of China" is pretty weak since it never really was. It was subdued by only two different dynasties, but never was truly part of a Chinese nation. Just a colony of sorts. The PRC's record there is attrocious. So there's strike one.

Okay, so what of the Chinese record with their own people. The Tianemen Square massacres are too recent a memory for most people to trust China to play nice. Now the propaganda that the Chinese government spews out on that incident is that there was bloody revolution against the people of China and that it was bravely put down by the Chinese Army. A brave massacre against unarmed protesters with tanks and machine guns was the reality. All that for daring to think for themselves in an organized fashion. That's strike two.

Now the world is watching very closely to see how China handles the repatriation of Hong Kong. Don't doubt for one second, Taiwan is more interested than any other. If China runs par for their bloody course, Honk Kong becomes strike three.

Taiwan is in quite the predicament, aren't they? They know that China will throw a tantrum if any major world power recognizes them as an independent country. From what you've said, China is willing to go all the way to Nuclear Holocaust and destroy the entire human race, rather than allow Taiwan to openly declare that they are a separate country. The real nonsense in the PRC's propaganda is that "Taiwan belongs to the PRC and the people of China". The PRC never controlled it in their entire existence. Off and on, its been part of a Chinese empire for a very long time, depending on which Dynasty we're talking about. I don't know if that grants China the god given right to it.

Okay, so for an excellent parallel, lets take the United States. The world's big bully, as you like to call us. At about the same point in history as Taiwan became a separate entity, something very similar happened in the USA. The US Territory called Cuba voted and decided to discontinue being part of the United States. Then a strange thing happened. The United States does not invade nor do they make any fuss at all. They respected the Cuban people's right to determine their own destiny. Even when Cuba decided to ally itself with the enemies of the United States, when we could have just invaded them and forced them to rejoin, but we did not. The Bay of Pigs disaster was about as close as you come, but that was Cuban exiles being let back into Cuba and not the US Armed Forces. The policy always was and always will be that Cubans will determine Cuba's destiny. Cuba has held its own national identity for almost exactly the same amount of time as Taiwan. China is no more in control of Taiwan than the United States is in control of Cuba. China invading Taiwan would be exactly the same sort of scenario as the US invading Cuba. One single difference: The US doesn't throw tantrums when other nations recognize the independence of Cuba.
 
Well, I really can understand you all said above, from your point of view, I really have no problem with that.

And the true conclusion about all this taiwan thing is actually:

1. Nobody can convince nobody. We'd better avoid those meaningless talks at all.

2. It is a cruel world, like it has always been, the bigger fist decides the fate.

So, the final showdown is:
Taiwan declares independence -> China shows no mercy -> Let's face in the battles.

If China lose, then we no lucky, screwed up, face it.
If Taiwan lose, then you pay the big price and punishment.

History only remembers the glory of winner, never the losers.

Agree?
 
You can't use the example of Californai breaking away from the US. It's not the same thing.

You see it is orginally China who broke away from Tawain, by turning communist.

Before this China was ruled by a government that wasn't communist, this included Taiwan which stayed true to the original government. Which makes Taiwan the legitimate heirs to the Taiwan. When China broke away by turning communist, in my oppoinion it lost the right to make territorial claims of that original government, namely Taiwan.

For this to be similar, the The US except for California would have to turn communist. California then being the heirs to the original constitution would have the right to self govern California. If the rest of the US would invade then they can do that, but they would be in the wrong, same as China invading Taiwan.
 
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