Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

So what is Turkey playing at?
I am assuming they want something.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/turke...nato-to-oppose-membership-for-finland-sweden/

I have an odd question regarding Ukrainian artillery, people are starting to worry about them running out of 152mm shells but surely given the amount of Russian artillery in eastern European armies someone other than Russia is making these rounds Poland for example.
To me the logistics of moving ammunition from US to Ukraine doesn't make sense as it should be available much closer.

The US has got its logistics jacked up pretty tight, so in all honesty I don't see a problem.
 
The US has got its logistics jacked up pretty tight, so in all honesty I don't see a problem.

I guess my point is that Ukraine still has a lot of Russian artillery and armour so rather than just scrap it surely there are east European countries making it that could supply them.
 
It is rather amusing. Putin commenced this war to prevent the expansion of NATO, Finland and Sweden will apply for membership of it because of this war. The war has unified NATO and EU in away these two organization could never achieve by themselves.

Where are we about the Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv? If the Ukrainians are able to cut of the Russian supply lines from Belgorod to the Izyum salient.
 
It is rather amusing. Putin commenced this war to prevent the expansion of NATO, Finland and Sweden will apply for membership of it because of this war. The war has unified NATO and EU in away these two organization could never achieve by themselves.

Where are we about the Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv? If the Ukrainians are able to cut of the Russian supply lines from Belgorod to the Izyum salient.

I read somewhere that some sort of coup is underway, if there is and Putin is disposed, who's going to take over?

I guess my point is that Ukraine still has a lot of Russian artillery and armour so rather than just scrap it surely there are east European countries making it that could supply them.

I agree with you, but the danger is (as I see it), what if the Russians take out those facilities?

With the US and UK suppling western ordnance Ukraine should be well supplied.

Just a thought.
 
I read somewhere that some sort of coup is underway, if there is and Putin is disposed, who's going to take over?



I agree with you, but the danger is (as I see it), what if the Russians take out those facilities?

With the US and UK suppling western ordnance Ukraine should be well supplied.

Just a thought.

I read that too. It was the chief of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence who said it, but I take it with a grain of salt. If we speculate about who can replace him. It depends on how let say the military and the security perceive those in Putin's inner circle. One option would be Putin's major political opponent. I don't remember his name, but he is in a prison right now. He survived a chemical assassination attempt. The West would probably like to see him as the president. But I doubt he is a realistic option.
 
I read that too. It was the chief of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence who said it, but I take it with a grain of salt. If we speculate about who can replace him. It depends on how let say the military and the security perceive those in Putin's inner circle. One option would be Putin's major political opponent. I don't remember his name, but he is in a prison right now. He survived a chemical assassination attempt. The West would probably like to see him as the president. But I doubt he is a realistic option.

I assume you mean Alexei Navalny?
If Putin thought there would be a genuine attempt at a coup I suspect Navalny would be dead by now after accidentally ingesting a radioactive substance.

Putin's replacement would most likely be Nikolai Patrushev who is just as crazy, power should transfer to the Prime minister Mikhail Mishustin but he just seems to be there to maintain the facade of a democracy and rubber-stamp Putin's decrees.

What I still don't understand is where the Russian air force has gone, they are on the verge of losing and they still haven't shown up, were they given the year off or something?
 
I read this morning that Putin was will to accept Finland and Sweden joining NATO as long as no NATO units are stationed in either country. Is Putin backing off at last?
 
I read this morning that Putin was will to accept Finland and Sweden joining NATO as long as no NATO units are stationed in either country. Is Putin backing off at last?

My money would be on it being a face saving measure, rather than accept that his opinion on the matter is worthless he is pretending it is ok as long as it is on his terms, it is very "school yard" bully mentality.

It think Turkeys stance is interesting, essentially it is hanging Sweden and Finland out to twist in the wind.
Given that the world knew they were looking at joining and that it would piss the Russians off why didn't Turkey say something sooner to allow issues to be sorted first.
At this stage maybe NATO needs to determine who it needs/wants more.
 
My money would be on it being a face saving measure, rather than accept that his opinion on the matter is worthless he is pretending it is ok as long as it is on his terms, it is very "school yard" bully mentality.

It think Turkeys stance is interesting, essentially it is hanging Sweden and Finland out to twist in the wind.
Given that the world knew they were looking at joining and that it would piss the Russians off why didn't Turkey say something sooner to allow issues to be sorted first.
At this stage maybe NATO needs to determine who it needs/wants more.

In all honesty I'd rather have Finland and Sweden in NATO then Turkey. What are Turkeys reasons for hanging Finland and Sweden out to dry? Personally I don't trust the buggers, I get the feeling that Turkey would rather align with Russia then NATO.
 
Personally I don't trust the buggers, I get the feeling that Turkey would rather align with Russia then NATO.
As Turkey goes more Islamic from secular I'd think it would attract Russian attention as a threat, political & religious, Turkey has been a target of Russian aggression a number of times in the past.
 
As Turkey goes more Islamic from secular I'd think it would attract Russian attention as a threat, political & religious, Turkey has been a target of Russian aggression a number of times in the past.

/www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18467/turkey-nato-putin-ally
 
Yeah I understand that but leaving the Russian garrison on the island gives them a free high value set of targets such as resupply ships and helicopters that they can pick off at will where as taking the island more or less reverses that scenario as Ukraine would have to maintain its garrison.
Think someone on here suggested that had the Germans known Dieppe was just a Raid & not the Invasion that they should have done that also.
 
/www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18467/turkey-nato-putin-ally
Was aware of some of that, but worse than I thought. "The Biden administration, evidently, at the behest of Turkey, has tried to kill the EastMed gas pipeline project, which could supply gas from Cyprus and Israel, via Greece, to Europe.
According to Gatestone Senior Fellow Soeren Kern:
"The EastMed pipeline has been in the works for more than a decade. The Israel-Greece-Cyprus project — joined by Bulgaria, Hungary, North Macedonia, Romania and Serbia — has long been seen as a way to diversify natural gas supplies to Europe."
When it comes to pipelines Biden is a dim bulb...
 
I assume you mean Alexei Navalny?
If Putin thought there would be a genuine attempt at a coup I suspect Navalny would be dead by now after accidentally ingesting a radioactive substance.

Putin's replacement would most likely be Nikolai Patrushev who is just as crazy, power should transfer to the Prime minister Mikhail Mishustin but he just seems to be there to maintain the facade of a democracy and rubber-stamp Putin's decrees.

What I still don't understand is where the Russian air force has gone, they are on the verge of losing and they still haven't shown up, were they given the year off or something?

What Russian air force ? Maybe it is (since long ) no more ( not ) operational.
 
What Russian air force ? Maybe it is (since long ) no more ( not ) operational.

There must be one somewhere, they have about 2000 combat aircraft you would think one or two of them could find Ukraine on a map.

Essentially, they are the difference between this mess of an offensive they have been bumbling around at for the last 3 months and the "lightning" campaign they thought would happen.

I based my entire "this is a war Russia can't lose" theory on the fact that most "modern" militaries understand the benefits of combined arms operations and have done since about 1939, did Russia miss the memo?

Seems at least senior military analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok is begining to point out reality for Russians.

Russian media watch
 
Last edited:
There must be one somewhere, they have about 2000 combat aircraft you would think one or two of them could find Ukraine on a map.

Essentially, they are the difference between this mess of an offensive they have been bumbling around at for the last 3 months and the "lightning" campaign they thought would happen.

I based my entire "this is a war Russia can't lose" theory on the fact that most "modern" militaries understand the benefits of combined arms operations and have done since about 1939, did Russia miss the memo?

Seems at least senior military analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok is begining to point out reality for Russians.

Russian media watch

I did read somewhere that Russian aircraft shot down were found to have standard civi GPS units strapped to the instrument panel and that the T90 is not fit for purpose. Is Russian equipment so jacked up as to be a threat to Ukraine let alone NATO?
 
I did read somewhere that Russian aircraft shot down were found to have standard civi GPS units strapped to the instrument panel and that the T90 is not fit for purpose. Is Russian equipment so jacked up as to be a threat to Ukraine let alone NATO?

It is rumoured they have found a few aircraft wrecks with Garmin gps units taped to the dashboard but how accurate that is it is impossible to say.

It seems everything up to and including the T-90A is an easy target, not sure about the T-90M as only a few of them have been seen on in Ukraine and they also went up pretty easily.

It would also be interesting to see the T-14 in action but I doubt the Russians will risk it as if it is as bad as the others it will seriously screw up export sales.
 
I read and yet again a grain of salt. The Russian Air Force doesn't have any or very few precision guided munition left. The Russian air force is forced to fly lower to hit the desired targets. This approach make the Russian aircrafts vulnerable to handhold AA weapons such as Stinger.


India bought the T90, they may regret it now when they can see what modern antitank weapons do to Russian designed tanks with the design flaw they have. But I don't think a modern western tank would be so much better if let say an Abrams, a Leopard, a Challenger, and/or a Leclerc were hit by a Javelin or a NLAW.
 
I read and yet again a grain of salt. The Russian Air Force doesn't have any or very few precision guided munition left. The Russian air force is forced to fly lower to hit the desired targets. This approach make the Russian aircrafts vulnerable to handhold AA weapons such as Stinger.


India bought the T90, they may regret it now when they can see what modern antitank weapons do to Russian designed tanks with the design flaw they have. But I don't think a modern western tank would be so much better if let say an Abrams, a Leopard, a Challenger, and/or a Leclerc were hit by a Javelin or a NLAW.

You would imagine that modern western armour would be tested against modern western and eastern ATGMs though, personally I suspect the difference in lethality and success rate is more likely to be the competence of the operator and give how things have progressed to date it seems clear that the average Ukrainian serviceman has a far higher level of competence compared to the average Russian.

Russian successes so far seem predicated on overwhelming local defenses with large amounts of artillery and troops and Ukrainian successes come from ambushing Russian troops once outside artillery range, I have no idea how this Russian force would function against a military with a functioning air force though.

I can't help but think Ukraine could have set traps for the Russians by rapidly deploying John Deere tractor dealerships on the Russian line of advance and shelling them while the Russians were looting it because looting seems to be all the Russian military are any good at.
 
I think western tanks would be destroyed if they were hit by Javelins or NLAWs, but they wouldn't get the "jack in the Box" effect when Western tanks store the ammunition differently than Russian tanks.

There are several things about this war that confuses me. We have mentioned the Russian air force quite often, where is it? The Russian road discipline and how they are just driving into urban areas and get badly hit by Ukrainian AT teams. The Russian logistical problems, the Russian communication problems, there are reports about the Russian commanders are using cell phones. They did that during the Chechen wars and the war in Georgia. It might explain why so many Russian generals have been killed. The Russian command structure doesn't work well.

I have looked into the Russian battalion battlegroups and they are lacking the infantry for this kind of warfare. The infantry must clear urban areas and forest areas and using the mech and tank units as a support if the infantry face resistance. Now they are doing the opposite.
 
Back
Top