Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[BritinBritain]

I suspect there are a number of reasons for this:
1. The Japanese task force left for Pearl Harbour on the 26th November and the Enterprise left Pearl on the 28th November, Lexington left on the 5th December and Saratoga was in San Diego, the Japanese enforced strict radio silence during travel so they would not have been told they had left even if they knew and Enterprise was due back that day (and it's aircrews suffered casualties at Pearl Harbor so they were close).

I can understand why the Japanese fleet sailing for Pearly had radio silence, but I would assume the Japanese Navy HQ would have a recall code word.

I'm also surprised that with the sabre rattling of the Japanese there were not Allied submarines operating in the area of thew Japanese homelands.

Its also been suggested that the attack on Pearl Harbour was known by Allied leaders before the actual attack.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I really don't know, every "expert" I have seen and read says they aren't false flags and while they present good cases I struggle to agree with one important question:
"Who has the most to gain?"
To me the answer isn't Ukraine, at best attacking Moscow may damage a few buildings and the fact that they are getting there is a black eye for Putin and the great Russian air defence systems but the damage they will do is a double edge sword as it may also galvanise Russia and make justifying a full mobilisation a lot easier.

I lean toward it being a false flag but not by a lot and and I could easily be persuaded otherwise, the ones crashing into Russian refineries and infrastructure however do think are Ukrainian in origin.

The ground interventions into Russia are more thunder runs by Russians fighting on the Ukrainian side or Ukrainians than anything else. The drone attacks in and around Moscow? I think they are false flag operations to get the excuse to mobilize more Russians, as you said.

Ukraine can get some out of these attacks if they attack Russian logistics and force the Russians to increase the defense on their side of the border.

 

[MontyB]

The ground interventions into Russia are more thunder runs by Russians fighting on the Ukrainian side or Ukrainians than anything else. The drone attacks in and around Moscow? I think they are false flag operations to get the excuse to mobilize more Russians, as you said.

Ukraine can get some out of these attacks if they attack Russian logistics and force the Russians to increase the defense on their side of the border.

The drone attacks on Moscow just seem out of character given the war Ukraine has fought to date, the first attack on the Kremlin also struck me as a false flag attack as it was never going to return a dividend to Ukraine.
The attacks on air bases and industrial infrastructure make sense and have an effect on the war and Russia's ability to fight but a few drones into the residential areas of Moscow do nothing.
My suspicion is on Putin being behind the Kremlin attack and when that had no affect he stepped it up a notch, I think he has a great deal to worry about with Prigozhin on the campaign trail and increasing tension between them.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Russia claims it has thwarted an Ukrainian attack in the Donetsk region.

 

[MontyB]

Russia claims it has thwarted an Ukrainian attack in the Donetsk region.

Russia claims it has destroyed more HIMARS than have been made and was destroying Bradleys before they even arrived in Ukraine, I am not sure taking Russian claims for granted would be a wise move.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Russia claims it has destroyed more HIMARS than have been made and was destroying Bradleys before they even arrived in Ukraine, I am not sure taking Russian claims for granted would be a wise move.

It's common during wars to claim things. But I am impressed by how the Russians are able to destroy more things than what the other side has. (sarcasm) They had also destroyed Leo2s before the arrival of them

I remember the Russians were claiming they had wiped out the Ukrainian air force...

The UN forces claimed the same thing during the first Gulf war.

The Russian claims are most likely an attempt to divert the attention from the drone strikes in Russia and the ground attacks into Russian territory

 

[MontyB]

It's common during wars to claim things. But I am impressed by how the Russians are able to destroy more things than what the other side has. (sarcasm) They had also destroyed Leo2s before the arrival of them

I remember the Russians were claiming they had wiped out the Ukrainian air force...

The UN forces claimed the same thing during the first Gulf war.

The Russian claims are most likely an attempt to divert the attention from the drone strikes in Russia and the ground attacks into Russian territory

The one I remember best was during the first few hours of the war when they showed a live split screen, one of the Russian MOD spokesman and one a reporter in Kyiv.
The MOD guy was claiming that they had destroyed Ukrainian air defence and at the same moment on the Kyiv screen a missile took off and took out something with a giant flash of light.

That seems to be the story of the Russian war.

I am stating to wonder whether what is going on in Southern Russia isn't for Prigozhin's benefit.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

The one I remember best was during the first few hours of the war when they showed a live split screen, one of the Russian MOD spokesman and one a reporter in Kyiv.
The MOD guy was claiming that they had destroyed Ukrainian air defence and at the same moment on the Kyiv screen a missile took off and took out something with a giant flash of light.

That seems to be the story of the Russian war.

I am stating to wonder whether what is going on in Southern Russia isn't for Prigozhin's benefit.

Ukraine urges everybody to be quiet. To tell the whole world about an offensive worked once, but it will most likely not work twice.

Wagner group might take over the defense of the border region or rather he wants to do that.

 

[MontyB]

Ukraine urges everybody to be quiet. To tell the whole world about an offensive worked once, but it will most likely not work twice.

Wagner group might take over the defense of the border region or rather he wants to do that.

Indeed, it was an interesting advert...

Silence

 

[BritinBritain]

Indeed, it was an interesting advert...

Silence

Good advert, BTW I like the sniper rifle.

Reminds me of WW2 posters=-

''Be like Dad, keep mum'' among others 'Lose lips sinks ships''

From what I have been reading and seeing on TV, its appears ordinary Russians have had enough of Putin's madness. I really don't see the Ukrainian's rolling over anytime soon, I wonder if Putin will suddenly disappear or fall out of a 14th floor window

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Good advert, BTW I like the sniper rifle.

Reminds me of WW2 posters=-

''Be like Dad, keep mum'' among others 'Lose lips sinks ships''

From what I have been reading and seeing on TV, its appears ordinary Russians have had enough of Putin's madness. I really don't see the Ukrainian's rolling over anytime soon, I wonder if Putin will suddenly disappear or fall out of a 14th floor window

They do indeed have a balcony problem in Russia.

Btw, the forces responsible for the intervention into Russian territory carries AT-4s

 

[MontyB]

Good advert, BTW I like the sniper rifle.

Reminds me of WW2 posters=-

''Be like Dad, keep mum'' among others 'Lose lips sinks ships''

From what I have been reading and seeing on TV, its appears ordinary Russians have had enough of Putin's madness. I really don't see the Ukrainian's rolling over anytime soon, I wonder if Putin will suddenly disappear or fall out of a 14th floor window

I found it interesting that it ended with two F-16s and that a couple of the characters in it were international legion personnel.

In other interesting news Australia could be sending its retired F/A-18s to Ukraine.
This has been rumoured for a while but it appears they have reached an agreement to refurbish them...

https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-to-get-f-35-stealth-fighter-jets-predecessor-f-a-18/?amp

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I found it interesting that it ended with two F-16s and that a couple of the characters in it were international legion personnel.

In other interesting news Australia could be sending its retired F/A-18s to Ukraine.
This has been rumoured for a while but it appears they have reached an agreement to refurbish them...

https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-to-get-f-35-stealth-fighter-jets-predecessor-f-a-18/?amp

The Finns are also getting rid of their F-18s, The Ukrainian fighter pilots get training in the Gripen here and it has been ongoing for awhile.

Somebody blow up a dam, wonder who that can be.

 

[MontyB]

The Finns are also getting rid of their F-18s, The Ukrainian fighter pilots get training in the Gripen here and it has been ongoing for awhile.

Somebody blow up a dam, wonder who that can be.

Hard to say, initially I thought it was the Russians but as they have the low side of the river the flooding apparently has affected their forward positions so maybe it was the Ukrainians to force them out of those positions?

 

[lljadw]

The Finns are also getting rid of their F-18s, The Ukrainian fighter pilots get training in the Gripen here and it has been ongoing for awhile.

Somebody blow up a dam, wonder who that can be.

Did someone blow up a damn ?
Or did the dam collaps because of age,lack of maintenance, ...?
An Ukrainian officer told CNN that a lot of Russian soldiers were dragged away by the flood .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Hard to say, initially I thought it was the Russians but as they have the low side of the river the flooding apparently has affected their forward positions so maybe it was the Ukrainians to force them out of those positions?

It is beneficial for both sides when both the Russians and the Ukrainians can regroup their forces to other locations. The flooding can also have an impact on the fresh water supply to Crimea, which is beneficial for the Ukrainians.

The flooding makes it harder for the Ukrainians to launch any attacks toward Crimea from the Kherson region, but I doubt the Ukrainians were planning to do it from Kherson even without a flood. Attacking a cross a river and the following logistical chain require functional bridges or ferries which will be targets for the Russians. The logistics are vulnerable even without the bottlenecks like bridges or ferries.

 

[MontyB]

It is beneficial for both sides when both the Russians and the Ukrainians can regroup their forces to other locations. The flooding can also have an impact on the fresh water supply to Crimea, which is beneficial for the Ukrainians.

The flooding makes it harder for the Ukrainians to launch any attacks toward Crimea from the Kherson region, but I doubt the Ukrainians were planning to do it from Kherson even without a flood. Attacking a cross a river and the following logistical chain require functional bridges or ferries which will be targets for the Russians. The logistics are vulnerable even without the bottlenecks like bridges or ferries.

Agreed but my assumption here is that any advance across the Dnieper was going to be a light infantry affair initially and Ukraine's strength appears to be light infantry and long range artillery so it seems to me that forcing the Russians out of prepared positions evens the odds considerably.

Now before this goes any further I hope people understand that this is my opinion and practically I have no idea what I am talking about so I am more than happy to accept other advice on it.

For what it is worth it appears Russia has admitted blowing the dam anyway.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

It seems the Ukrainian first phase of the counter offensive has begun. The Ukrainian attacks aren't probing attacks, they are more likely to be attacks to keep the Russian forces where they are and to preventing them to disengage and regroup to other sectors.

 

[MontyB]

It seems the Ukrainian first phase of the counter offensive has begun. The Ukrainian attacks aren't probing attacks, they are more likely to be attacks to keep the Russian forces where they are and to preventing them to disengage and regroup to other sectors.

Possibly but they are fairly small scale at the moment, a couple of companies and a few IFVs are hardly the spearhead to Moscow, I guess we will know when Russia starts committing its reserve.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Possibly but they are fairly small scale at the moment, a couple of companies and a few IFVs are hardly the spearhead to Moscow, I guess we will know when Russia starts committing its reserve.

The attacks have some sort of probing, if the Ukrainians find a weak spot, they will exploit it. I also think the attacks have another purpose, to find Russian supply routes. logistical hubs, and artillery positions, but all we can do is wait and see.