Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

Apparently Putin is visiting South Africa soon, the Democratic Alliance have stated that the ANC havent got the guts to arrest him following the arrest warrant issued by the ICC.

As is known, South African Navy is training with Russian and Chinese Navies in South African waters. Some South Africans are concerned about sanctions being imposed, and should be thrown out of the commonwealth.
 
lljadw said:
Russia also has not and had never the world's second army .Is ''the world's second army '' (with US the world's first army ,of course ) not an invention of US media ?
Russia is much,much weaker than was the USSR ,and the USSR failed in Afghanistan ,
Besides, the world's second army is something totally meaningless as both (the world;s first and the world's second armies ) have failed in Afghanistan against opponents that did not dispose of the modern weapons of US and USSR .
What would be the criteria to use to classify the armies in the world ?
The French army failed in Indochina and Algeria :does that mean that these armies are superior to the French one ?
The Wehrmacht was categorized in 1941 ( and is still categorized as such by the WM fans ) as world's first army and failed in the Summer of 1941 to eliminate the USSR .Does that mean that the Red Army was better ,stronger than the WM ?
If Russia is transferring T55 tanks from the Far East to be used in Ukraine, does that indicate a big Russian weakness ?
One should not forget that in the Ukrainian war,on both sides, tanks have only a secondary role .
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Wars have been won by deception, tactics, strategies, and, most notably, timely and actionable intelligence. Not by material superiority. I cannot emphasize or reemphasize more on the intelligence dominance over the enemies. As John Keegan suggests: "The strongest boxer cannot defeat the foe he hasn’t studied or cannot see." Or, “Secret operations are essential in war, upon them the army relies on to make its every move" as Sun Tzu said, "An army without secret agents is exactly like a man without eyes or ears.”

In his article entitled “Winning with Intelligence”, analyst Gregory Elder from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, explores the role of tactical and operational intelligence in deciding force employment schemes and as a decisive element in five strategically significant battles— the First Battle of Bull Run (1861), Tannenberg (1914), Midway (1942), Incheon (1950), and the Israeli airstrike initiating the Six-Day War in 1967. Elder goes on to illustrate that “it was neither technology nor material superiority that won the day, but accurate, timely, actionable intelligence, combined with leaders willing to treat intelligence as a primary factor in deciding outcomes.”
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The tremendous military victory we achieved in Desert Storm and the minimal losses sustained by U.S. and Coalition forces can be directly attributed to the excellent intelligence picture we had of the Iraqis.
—General H. Norman
Schwarzkopf III, U.S. Army
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Successful employment of modern weapons systems, new operational concepts, and innovative combat techniques— particularly those involving forces that are lighter, faster, more agile, and more lethal—also depends on rapid, precise, accurate, and detailed intelligence.”
- General Hugh Shelton, former chairman of the joint chiefs of
staff
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Read more: https://projectofive.ca/2020/06/28/...ng-is-key-to-keeping-russia-and-china-at-bay/
 
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MontyB said:
Wasn't the timeline T-34 - T-44 - T-54/55.
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Yes, the T-44 and the JS were developed and issued more or less at the same time. The T-44 was a medium tank replacing the T-34 and the JS was replacing the KV tanks

Russia must save some of their modern tanks if the war in Ukraine spreads and turn into a war between NATO and Russia.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, the T-44 and the JS were developed and issued more or less at the same time. The T-44 was a medium tank replacing the T-34 and the JS was replacing the KV tanks

Russia must save some of their modern tanks if the war in Ukraine spreads and turn into a war between NATO and Russia.
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There is a T-44 on display in Minsk, I expect that will be heading in for upgrades soon.

Technically Russia still has around 6500 tanks in various states of repair.
I doubt however that they will be relying on T-14 as that thing couldn't even make it through Red Square without breaking down.
 
I'm wondering just how far Putin is willing to push this war, all kinds of threats of launching nuclear weapons and other WMD's. If Putin does launch something, will Moscow vanish in a cloud of smoke and dust or will someone push Putin out of a 14th story window?
 
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MontyB said:
There is a T-44 on display in Minsk, I expect that will be heading in for upgrades soon.

Technically Russia still has around 6500 tanks in various states of repair.
I doubt however that they will be relying on T-14 as that thing couldn't even make it through Red Square without breaking down.
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I think they have between 20-40 T-14. The Russians are pretty good with coming with ideas, but they have a problem to operationalize the ideas and to produce the things.
 
BritinBritain said:
I'm wondering just how far Putin is willing to push this war, all of threats of nuclear weapons and other WMD's, if Putin does launch something, will Moscow vanish in a cloud of smoke and dust or will someone push Putin out of a 14th story window?
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If Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, they will probably use several tactical nukes to be effective. The response will most likely be an intervention by NATO. Russia would most likely loose the support by China and India. If the Russian uses C-weapons....
 
BritinBritain said:
Apparently Putin is visiting South Africa soon, the Democratic Alliance have stated that the ANC havent got the guts to arrest him following the arrest warrant issued by the ICC.
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Or if his plane has an inflight problem going there and has to land somewhere. Not too many probably risk the nuclear threats.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
If Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, they will probably use several tactical nukes to be effective. The response will most likely be an intervention by NATO. Russia would most likely loose the support by China and India. If the Russian uses C-weapons....
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I suspect NATO will get involved if NBC weapons are used in any event.
 
MontyB said:
I suspect NATO will get involved if NBC weapons are used in any event.
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I believe NATO will intervene directly and attack Russian targets if they use a nuke, but I am not sure if they will do that if Russia decides to use C-weapons. B-weapons are difficult to spread and rather ineffective.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
You are right, the antiquities are coming, even the Russian media talks about T-34s


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bNE3fbCYEQ&t=206s
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The rumour is that these T-55s are going to be dug in as static defence points or as expendable stop gaps while T-72s and T-80s are restored.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ks-are-expendable-in-ukraine/?sh=695570bb5609

Apparently the T-10 is next in line...
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/...mp_after_the_t_54_and_the_t_55_mbts-6163.html

I3BrigPvSk said:
I believe NATO will intervene directly and attack Russian targets if they use a nuke, but I am not sure if they will do that if Russia decides to use C-weapons. B-weapons are difficult to spread and rather ineffective.
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If Russia and uses B or C class weapons it is most likely to be aimed at population centres which are far more static and higher density.
 
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Tuan said:
Wars have been won by deception, tactics, strategies, and, most notably, timely and actionable intelligence. Not by material superiority. I cannot emphasize or reemphasize more on the intelligence dominance over the enemies. As John Keegan suggests: "The strongest boxer cannot defeat the foe he hasn’t studied or cannot see." Or, “Secret operations are essential in war, upon them the army relies on to make its every move" as Sun Tzu said, "An army without secret agents is exactly like a man without eyes or ears.”







Read more: https://projectofive.ca/2020/06/28/...ng-is-key-to-keeping-russia-and-china-at-bay/
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I am not surprised by what these victorious generals are saying .They all claim victory for them while neglecting the role of the opponent .
German historiography is still doing it for Fall Gelb
US and UK historiography do it for Overlord and for Barbarossa . and for Stalingrad and the U Boats,etc,

Do you imagine Schwartzkopf saying that the role of the DIA and NSA was much exaggerated ? This would be a suicide .
And Sun Tzu is not a serious source .
The outcome of a war is essentially decided by the strength relation of both sides ,not by deception .
The same for the outcome of a campaign,of of a battle .
US won the Battle of the Ardennes, although they were surprised by the German attack .
The defender has to be stronger than the attacker, much stronger ,as the attacker can chose where to attack,while the defender can not chose the sectors he will defend .
 
MontyB said:
The rumour is that these T-55s are going to be dug in as static defence points or as expendable stop gaps while T-72s and T-80s are restored.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ks-are-expendable-in-ukraine/?sh=695570bb5609

Apparently the T-10 is next in line...
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/...mp_after_the_t_54_and_the_t_55_mbts-6163.html



If Russia and uses B or C class weapons it is most likely to be aimed at population centres which are far more static and higher density.
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Another example of how obsolete the Russian doctrine is when they use the same MO as the Iraqis during the First Gulf War
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
More old vehicles on a Russian road, if they are on route to Ukraine or going to a museum is hard to know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlkZuuUUFFU&t=153s
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Are they sure that crap is heading to the front and not a WW2 reenactment in Belarus, I think I saw a WW1 truck in that pile.

The good news is that Russia has found some more ammunition for the artillery.

picture2354.jpg
 
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MontyB said:
Are they sure that crap is heading to the front and not a WW2 reenactment in Belarus, I think I saw a WW1 truck in that pile.

The good news is that Russia has found some more ammunition for the artillery.

picture2354.jpg
[/QUOT]

LOL :smile:
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