Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[MontyB]

I said that Germany is economically much stronger than Poland oland has German tanks, Germany has not Polish tanks .The Polish industry can not built modern tanks .
GDP of Germany :4260,0 billion USD for a population of 83 million people
GDP of Poland : 680 billion USD for a population of 38 million people
The GDP of Poland is 15 % of that of Germany. Its population is 45 % of that of Germany .

Hyundai clearly believe Poland can produce modern tanks or they wouldn't be letting them build the K2 PL in Poland.
There is no doubt that Germany is an economic powerhouse but this Ukrainian war is exposing it as a military light weight.

If NATO had thought that it was Germany that was going to blunt a Russian attack until America came to its aid then it is clear NATO was in deep trouble.

And in other news the German defense minister has said Germany won't block tank transfers...

https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...e-delivery-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I said that Germany is economically much stronger than Poland oland has German tanks, Germany has not Polish tanks .The Polish industry can not built modern tanks .
GDP of Germany :4260,0 billion USD for a population of 83 million people
GDP of Poland : 680 billion USD for a population of 38 million people
The GDP of Poland is 15 % of that of Germany. Its population is 45 % of that of Germany .

Yes, Germany is the economic engine in Europe, but Germany isn't a military power and it has let the military decline to almost beyond repair. Germany ignored the demands within NATO to spend minimum of 2% of the GDP on defense for a very long time. The war in Ukraine has exposed Germany and weaken it even further when it has lost credibility and the US has strengthen the ties with Poland instead. Poland is building up its military power while Germany isn't.

Germany is increasing the risk of destroying its own defense industry and being reduced politically in NATO.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Hyundai clearly believe Poland can produce modern tanks or they wouldn't be letting them build the K2 PL in Poland.
There is no doubt that Germany is an economic powerhouse but this Ukrainian war is exposing it as a military light weight.

If NATO had thought that it was Germany that was going to blunt a Russian attack until America came to its aid then it is clear NATO was in deep trouble.

And in other news the German defense minister has said Germany won't block tank transfers...

https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...e-delivery-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine

Poland will be producing the Abrams tanks too so they can build things. Poland will be the heavy weight power in NATO.

Btw, what is the best Russian anti-tank weapon?

Olaf Scholz

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

The Swiss are also blocking others from deliver arms to Ukraine

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion...ss-switzerland-on-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine/

 

[MontyB]

The Swiss are also blocking others from deliver arms to Ukraine

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion...ss-switzerland-on-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine/

Well at least the Poles have a sense of humour...

The Swiss are on their own side and and are rarely motivated by doing good over doing what's profitable.

One thing I think this war has shown the west is the need for security of supply.

 

[lljadw]

Hyundai clearly believe Poland can produce modern tanks or they wouldn't be letting them build the K2 PL in Poland.
There is no doubt that Germany is an economic powerhouse but this Ukrainian war is exposing it as a military light weight.

If NATO had thought that it was Germany that was going to blunt a Russian attack until America came to its aid then it is clear NATO was in deep trouble.

And in other news the German defense minister has said Germany won't block tank transfers...

https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...e-delivery-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine

As far as I know the K2PL will be produced in Poland from 2026 on ,and the whole technology is Korean .
Poland is receiving ( not for free ) 180 K2 tanks produced in SK .

 

[lljadw]

Poland will be producing the Abrams tanks too so they can build things. Poland will be the heavy weight power in NATO.

Btw, what is the best Russian anti-tank weapon?

Olaf Scholz

Scholz is not pro-Russian, he is pro-Scholz : he is not Tony Blair ,he is a politician, for God's sake,and Poles and Ukrainians can not vote for or against him .
Give me one reason why he should strip his electors of their remaining wealth to give it to Poland and Ukraine ?
And, on 4 January 2023 Defense News said that Poland would buy (BUY,not PRODUCE ) 116 Abram tanks at a cost of 1,1 billion USD. It will take several years before these tanks will be delivered .

 

[lljadw]

Yes, Germany is the economic engine in Europe, but Germany isn't a military power and it has let the military decline to almost beyond repair. Germany ignored the demands within NATO to spend minimum of 2% of the GDP on defense for a very long time. The war in Ukraine has exposed Germany and weaken it even further when it has lost credibility and the US has strengthen the ties with Poland instead. Poland is building up its military power while Germany isn't.

Germany is increasing the risk of destroying its own defense industry and being reduced politically in NATO.

NATO is irrelevant for Scholz : it can not participate in the German elections .Besides,the war in Ukraine is no threat for Germany .
If Germany had a border with Ukraine, it would act differently .

 

[MontyB]

Scholz is not pro-Russian, he is pro-Scholz : he is not Tony Blair ,he is a politician, for God's sake,and Poles and Ukrainians can not vote for or against him .
Give me one reason why he should strip his electors of their remaining wealth to give it to Poland and Ukraine ?
And, on 4 January 2023 Defense News said that Poland would buy (BUY,not PRODUCE ) 116 Abram tanks at a cost of 1,1 billion USD. It will take several years before these tanks will be delivered .

While most of us are surprised at the poor state of the German military no one is asking him to do anything but allow others to send equipment to Ukraine, Germany does not have to send one Leopard 2 to Ukraine just stop blocking others from doing so.

 

[lljadw]

While most of us are surprised at the poor state of the German military no one is asking him to do anything but allow others to send equipment to Ukraine, Germany does not have to send one Leopard 2 to Ukraine just stop blocking others from doing so.

Ukraine wants not only Leos from outside Germany but also German Leos and that Germany would build new Leos ,all for free .
Besides,if the other NATO members will give their tanks to Ukraine, their armies will be severely weakened and as there is no money for new tanks.......
Germany is now preventing other countries to send their Leos to Ukraine and refuses to send its Leos also to Ukraine .
But nothing proves us that if Germany will say yes, hundreds of Leos will go to Ukraine, the other countries will invent new excuses .
One of the main reasons for the German refusal is that Germany (and most of Central Europe ) is depending for its survival on trade with Russia and on the steady arrival of Russian gas,oil,coal .
Turkey (298 Leos ) , Hungary ( 12 Leos ) will not give their tanks to Ukraine .
If Poland will do it , it will need replacements and that will take years .
Why would Poland strip itself of its weapons to help Ukraine ?

 

[MontyB]

Ukraine wants not only Leos from outside Germany but also German Leos and that Germany would build new Leos ,all for free .
Besides,if the other NATO members will give their tanks to Ukraine, their armies will be severely weakened and as there is no money for new tanks.......
Germany is now preventing other countries to send their Leos to Ukraine and refuses to send its Leos also to Ukraine .
But nothing proves us that if Germany will say yes, hundreds of Leos will go to Ukraine, the other countries will invent new excuses .
One of the main reasons for the German refusal is that Germany (and most of Central Europe ) is depending for its survival on trade with Russia and on the steady arrival of Russian gas,oil,coal .
Turkey (298 Leos ) , Hungary ( 12 Leos ) will not give their tanks to Ukraine .
If Poland will do it , it will need replacements and that will take years .
Why would Poland strip itself of its weapons to help Ukraine ?

This seems appropriate at this point...

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-de...ady-to-send-139-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine.html

 

[lljadw]

This seems appropriate at this point...

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-de...ady-to-send-139-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine.html

The title of ukrinform is misleading
Rheinmetall is ready to send 29 tanks in April/May
Another 22 could be sent at the end of the year or in 2024,it will take them a year to be repaired
And there are also 88 OLD Leo1s that could maybe be sent, but there is no information about the number that is still operational ( after more than 40 years ) and when they could be sent .Thus only 29 could be used in the war .
Than,there is the problem of who owns these 139 tanks : if they are the propriety of Rheinmetall, the German government will have to pay them to Rheinmetall ,this means that Scholz will have to raise taxes ...

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Swedes are doing their best to not join NATO. I begin to agree with not joining NATO, it is supposed to have an open door policy. In addition to that, Turkiye has valid reason for not supporting Sweden to join NATO. I also believe we should have a referendum about it and if we have one, I would vote for not joining NATO.

 

[MontyB]

The title of ukrinform is misleading
Rheinmetall is ready to send 29 tanks in April/May
Another 22 could be sent at the end of the year or in 2024,it will take them a year to be repaired
And there are also 88 OLD Leo1s that could maybe be sent, but there is no information about the number that is still operational ( after more than 40 years ) and when they could be sent .Thus only 29 could be used in the war .
Than,there is the problem of who owns these 139 tanks : if they are the propriety of Rheinmetall, the German government will have to pay them to Rheinmetall ,this means that Scholz will have to raise taxes ...

Not sure that is accurate, it says they are circular exchange tanks and Germany doesn't use the L2A4 model.
My guess is that they are intended as replacements for countries with the A4 model while theirs are undergoing maintenance, as such Germany doesn't have to pay for anything.

Swedes are doing their best to not join NATO. I begin to agree with not joining NATO, it is supposed to have an open door policy. In addition to that, Turkiye has valid reason for not supporting Sweden to join NATO. I also believe we should have a referendum about it and if we have one, I would vote for not joining NATO.

I think a more appropriate question right now is whether NATO needs Turkiye, the are rattling the sabre at Greece (a fellow member), they throw tantrums at almost everything and I am not sure they contribute much at all.
I think both Finland and Sweden's bid to enter NATO should be shelved for a couple of months while the NATO constitution is rewritten to get rid of the 100% approval nonsense (maybe a simple super majority requirement) then put through in a slightly less BS environment.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Not sure that is accurate, it says they are circular exchange tanks and Germany doesn't use the L2A4 model.
My guess is that they are intended as replacements for countries with the A4 model while theirs are undergoing maintenance, as such Germany doesn't have to pay for anything.



I think a more appropriate question right now is whether NATO needs Turkiye, the are rattling the sabre at Greece (a fellow member), they throw tantrums at almost everything and I am not sure they contribute much at all.
I think both Finland and Sweden's bid to enter NATO should be shelved for a couple of months while the NATO constitution is rewritten to get rid of the 100% approval nonsense (maybe a simple super majority requirement) then put through in a slightly less BS environment.

Sweden will most likely join NATO, but maybe not at the same time as Finland. One option is to completely ignore Turkiye. Turkiye has an election later this year and it messes up things, they also wants to upgrade their F-16s and get into the F35 program again.

 

[MontyB]

Sweden will most likely join NATO, but maybe not at the same time as Finland. One option is to completely ignore Turkiye. Turkiye has an election later this year and it messes up things, they also wants to upgrade their F-16s and get into the F35 program again.

I still think this is an indication of a system that is no longer fit for purpose, that one country can throw a spanner in the works for no other reason than internal politics says that the system needs a rethink.
I fully expect Sweden to be admitted but Turkiye's politics is an indication of a country out of step with the organisation it is in and should make other members question its reliability.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I still think this is an indication of a system that is no longer fit for purpose, that one country can throw a spanner in the works for no other reason than internal politics says that the system needs a rethink.
I fully expect Sweden to be admitted but Turkiye's politics is an indication of a country out of step with the organisation it is in and should make other members question its reliability.

Yes, and Erdogan wants to get the upgraded F-16s from the US and join the F-35 program again. Maybe the pressure of arming the Greeks will get them in line

Btw, have the Germans now allowed the delivery of Leo2s to Ukraine? And apparently Abrams tanks, but that might change. I remember when we were discussing if Ukraine should get fighter jets or not

 

[MontyB]

Yes, and Erdogan wants to get the upgraded F-16s from the US and join the F-35 program again. Maybe the pressure of arming the Greeks will get them in line

Btw, have the Germans now allowed the delivery of Leo2s to Ukraine? And apparently Abrams tanks, but that might change. I remember when we were discussing if Ukraine should get fighter jets or not

Seems they have allowed it although it is a bit messy still.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/germa...-with-advanced-battle-tanks-in-landmark-move/

They are also looking at the Swedish Stridsvagn 122,

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2...2-the-best-leopard-that-could-face-the-t-90m/

The Dutch are also offering their F-16s
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dutch-open-to-transferring-f-16-jets-to-ukraine

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Seems they have allowed it although it is a bit messy still.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/germa...-with-advanced-battle-tanks-in-landmark-move/

They are also looking at the Swedish Stridsvagn 122,

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2...2-the-best-leopard-that-could-face-the-t-90m/

The Dutch are also offering their F-16s
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dutch-open-to-transferring-f-16-jets-to-ukraine

It might turn up to be the MBT world championship in Ukraine. Especially if the French provide with their Leclerc tanks

 

[MontyB]

It might turn up to be the MBT world championship in Ukraine. Especially if the French provide with their Leclerc tanks

I guess at least the west is getting a lot of valuable information about its combat platforms although I am starting to feel very sorry for Ukrainian logistics units with all various calibres of ammunition being shipped.

On a positive note Estonia seems to have given everything but their troops to Ukraine.