Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

Look at the history of Russia and you will see that it has always been a country of sheep, I can't think of a time when the powerless masses haven't been being brutalized by a rich minority.

They will never say enough because Stalin was right, they will march off over the minefield and die in their thousands while those who sent them are stealing what possessions they left behind, they are useful idiots.

Useful idiots was not invented by the communists, but by western media at the start of the Cold War .Howard Phillips called Reagan an useful idiot for his negotiations with Gorbatsjov . The communist rulers reserved the words useful idiots for western liberals who sympathized and collaborated with them :Picasso, Bernie Sanders, FDR,... They did not use it for their own populations .
That Russian soldiers marched off over minefields during WW2 is an unproved Cold War propaganda claim .
 
That Russian soldiers marched off over minefields during WW2 is an unproved Cold War propaganda claim .

It is a figurative statement not necessarily literal in this case, it means they follow blindly into situations that normal people wouldn't.
 
A victory for Ukraine would be to push the Russians out of the area they captured in 2014, but can they do it? I think it is easier for the Ukrainians to recapture Crimea than recature Donbas. The Russian forces are more vulnerable in Crimea than in the Donbas. It would be easier for the Ukrainians to hit and severely damage the Russian supply lines and supply hubs in Crimea than to do the same in the Donbas, but it depends on how flexible the Russians in the Donbas are if their supply routes are hit hard. They have lesser alternatives in Crimea
 
I have just been reading Joe Biden has called for the prosecution of Vladimir Putin for war crimes after the discovery in Bucha, Ukraine, of mass graves and bodies of bound civilians shot at close range. But bringing the Russian president to trial would be far from simple.

The international criminal court the world’s first permanent war crimes tribunal, defines them as “grave breaches” of the Geneva Conventions, a set of humanitarian laws to be observed in war.

Jonathan Hafetz, an international criminal law and national security scholar at Seton Hall University School of Law, told the Reuters news agency that the execution of civilians as alleged in Bucha was a “quintessential war crime”.

The prosecution could argue that Putin and his inner circle committed a war crime by directly ordering an illegal attack or knew crimes were being committed and failed to prevent them. This case may be hard to prove in isolation but if it fits a wider pattern across Ukraine, it becomes more compelling. The US had accused Russia of war crimes even before Bucha.

Philippe Sands, a professor at University College London, told the Associated Press: “You’ve got to prove that they knew or they could have known or should have known. There’s a real risk you end up with trials of mid-level people in three years and the main people responsible for this horror – Putin, Lavrov, the minister of defence, the intelligence folks, the military folks and the financiers who are supporting it – will get off the hook.”

I'm wondering how Putin could be arrested and forced to face a court for war crimes, who's nutty enough to go to the Kremlin, knock on the front door and show an arrest warrant and telling Putin ''You're nicked'':???:
 
I have just been reading Joe Biden has called for the prosecution of Vladimir Putin for war crimes after the discovery in Bucha, Ukraine, of mass graves and bodies of bound civilians shot at close range. But bringing the Russian president to trial would be far from simple.

The international criminal court the world’s first permanent war crimes tribunal, defines them as “grave breaches” of the Geneva Conventions, a set of humanitarian laws to be observed in war.

Jonathan Hafetz, an international criminal law and national security scholar at Seton Hall University School of Law, told the Reuters news agency that the execution of civilians as alleged in Bucha was a “quintessential war crime”.

The prosecution could argue that Putin and his inner circle committed a war crime by directly ordering an illegal attack or knew crimes were being committed and failed to prevent them. This case may be hard to prove in isolation but if it fits a wider pattern across Ukraine, it becomes more compelling. The US had accused Russia of war crimes even before Bucha.

Philippe Sands, a professor at University College London, told the Associated Press: “You’ve got to prove that they knew or they could have known or should have known. There’s a real risk you end up with trials of mid-level people in three years and the main people responsible for this horror – Putin, Lavrov, the minister of defence, the intelligence folks, the military folks and the financiers who are supporting it – will get off the hook.”

I'm wondering how Putin could be arrested and forced to face a court for war crimes, who's nutty enough to go to the Kremlin, knock on the front door and show an arrest warrant and telling Putin ''You're nicked'':???:

I don't know, give Zaluzhnyi enough Leopards or Abrams and I think he would happily go to Moscow for a chat with Putin.

The reality however is that Putin and team won't be arrested or charged as the precedent would be very troubling for the likes of Blair and Bush, my suspicions are that the end of this war will involve Putin slipping and accidentally falling from a six story Moscow hotel window as seems popular in Moscow these days.
 
The ICC doesn't have jurisdiction over Russia and Ukraine, but the latter recognize the court. It will be unusual for Putin and Co to end up in Hague, the only way that can make that to happen is if Russia wants to let in again and extradite Putin in an act of goodwill after the war. Putin will most likely vanish or mysteriously die after getting a cold

I read the UK consider to give Ukraine Challenger 2 tanks. Ukraine will get get more and more Western systems, but I guess they will get the M109 howitzer before getting any tanks and according to this article, they will get 18 of them. Ukraine has the BONUS artillery shell which is bad news for Russian vehicles

https://www.armyrecognition.com/def...ine_with_18_m109_paladin_155mm_howitzers.html
 
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The ICC doesn't have jurisdiction over Russia and Ukraine, but the latter recognize the court. It will be unusual for Putin and Co to end up in Hague, the only way that can make that to happen is if Russia wants to let in again and extradite Putin in an act of goodwill after the war. Putin will most likely vanish or mysteriously die after getting a cold

I read the UK consider to give Ukraine Challenger 2 tanks. Ukraine will get get more and more Western systems, but I guess they will get the M109 howitzer before getting any tanks and according to this article, they will get 18 of them. Ukraine has the BONUS artillery shell which is bad news for Russian vehicles

https://www.armyrecognition.com/def...ine_with_18_m109_paladin_155mm_howitzers.html

Between Jordan and the UK there are still 800 Challenger 1s out there which may be a better option as there are only about 220 Challenger 2s.
 
Between Jordan and the UK there are still 800 Challenger 1s out there which may be a better option as there are only about 220 Challenger 2s.

Aren't the huge majority of them in Jordan and I doubt they can or want to hand them over to Ukraine. Didn't the majority of the C1 chassis ended up as the chassi for the C2s, that is the cheapest way to upgrade tanks than to develop a new MBT.

If or rather when Ukraine gets Western made tanks, it will most likely be Leopard 2 A4/A5
 
The ICC doesn't have jurisdiction over Russia and Ukraine, but the latter recognize the court. It will be unusual for Putin and Co to end up in Hague, the only way that can make that to happen is if Russia wants to let in again and extradite Putin in an act of goodwill after the war. Putin will most likely vanish or mysteriously die after getting a cold

I read the UK consider to give Ukraine Challenger 2 tanks. Ukraine will get get more and more Western systems, but I guess they will get the M109 howitzer before getting any tanks and according to this article, they will get 18 of them. Ukraine has the BONUS artillery shell which is bad news for Russian vehicles

https://www.armyrecognition.com/def...ine_with_18_m109_paladin_155mm_howitzers.html

At this rate, the Ukraine is going to be the best equipped army in Europe
 
Aren't the huge majority of them in Jordan and I doubt they can or want to hand them over to Ukraine. Didn't the majority of the C1 chassis ended up as the chassi for the C2s, that is the cheapest way to upgrade tanks than to develop a new MBT.

If or rather when Ukraine gets Western made tanks, it will most likely be Leopard 2 A4/A5

Germany used 2000 Leopard 2 tanks, most were sold or destroyed. In 2015 it had only 328 of them , no one knows how many are still usable .The first L2 entered service in 1979 .
Poland has /had 137 L2A4
105 L2 A5
10 L2 Pl
How many are still usable ? No one knows
How many Poland can give to Ukraine ? No one knows .
 
There are more than 2000 Leo2s in Europe and more than half of them are the A4/A5. These Leo2s are in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey.
 
Aren't the huge majority of them in Jordan and I doubt they can or want to hand them over to Ukraine. Didn't the majority of the C1 chassis ended up as the chassi for the C2s, that is the cheapest way to upgrade tanks than to develop a new MBT.

If or rather when Ukraine gets Western made tanks, it will most likely be Leopard 2 A4/A5

As I understand it Jordan has around 400 of them that they are looking to replace so they may be open to some sort of deal.
What about the Swedish version, as I understand it they are still being manufactured aren't they an upgraded A5?

Seems drones do have other purposes...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...inian_drone_drops_sugar_on_ukrainian_position
 
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There are more than 2000 Leo2s in Europe and more than half of them are the A4/A5. These Leo2s are in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey.

There is no proof that any of these countries will give Ukraine even one L2 .
From Euractiv.de 22 December 2022
'' Because modern equipment would require too much training in Ukraine and delivery from other states would be quickly, Germany asked countries to send them soviet-era tanks, in return for more modern equipment such as L2 .
Germany will give Czechia ( NOT UKRAINE )25 L2 in 2023 that will replace the T 72 soviet-era tanks Czechia sent to Ukraine .''
It is the same for Greece :
''In the German-Greece swap,Ukraine received 50-year old BMP1 tanks from Greece .''
And Greece receives in return some L2 .
Thus, Ukraine will receive only soviet-era tanks :T72, BMP1,and no L2 tanks .
Ukraine can't use L2 tanks and the former east bloc states want to get rid from their soviet-era weapons .
Poland has some 240 L2, but said that it will give Ukraine only a few of them .
But it gave Ukraine some 200 soviet-era tanks (Wall Street Journal 29 April 2022 ),as member of NATO, it can't no longer use soviet tanks,while the L2 it bought from Germany costed some 50 million USD .
 
As I understand it Jordan has around 400 of them that they are looking to replace so they may be open to some sort of deal.
What about the Swedish version, as I understand it they are still being manufactured aren't they an upgraded A5?

Seems drones do have other purposes...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...inian_drone_drops_sugar_on_ukrainian_position

The problem with sending C1 and C2 to Ukraine is they aren't interoperable with other Western MBTs. The C3 wll be interoperable as it gets the smooth bore gun.

The majority of the Swedish Leo2s A5s are in storage and can be handed over to the Ukrainians if the German government allows it.
 
There is no proof that any of these countries will give Ukraine even one L2 .
From Euractiv.de 22 December 2022
'' Because modern equipment would require too much training in Ukraine and delivery from other states would be quickly, Germany asked countries to send them soviet-era tanks, in return for more modern equipment such as L2 .
Germany will give Czechia ( NOT UKRAINE )25 L2 in 2023 that will replace the T 72 soviet-era tanks Czechia sent to Ukraine .''
It is the same for Greece :
''In the German-Greece swap,Ukraine received 50-year old BMP1 tanks from Greece .''
And Greece receives in return some L2 .
Thus, Ukraine will receive only soviet-era tanks :T72, BMP1,and no L2 tanks .
Ukraine can't use L2 tanks and the former east bloc states want to get rid from their soviet-era weapons .
Poland has some 240 L2, but said that it will give Ukraine only a few of them .
But it gave Ukraine some 200 soviet-era tanks (Wall Street Journal 29 April 2022 ),as member of NATO, it can't no longer use soviet tanks,while the L2 it bought from Germany costed some 50 million USD .

The German government can de facto prevent all these countries to deliver any German made weapons to Ukraine and that is what preventing the Ukrainians to get more German made weapons. The problem is not to get the Ukrainians to be operational with Leo2s, the logistics and the training for the technicians to maintain the Leo2s is the major issue. The crew needs maybe three weeks to get the Leo2 up and running.

There is a pressure on the German government to allow other countries to send their German made weapons. The Germans also know this harm the German defense industry a lot.

Ukraine will get more offensive capable systems from the West, it's only a question of time.

Btw, the majority of the European countries that have Leo2s don't have any Soviet/Russian equipment
 
The German government can de facto prevent all these countries to deliver any German made weapons to Ukraine and that is what preventing the Ukrainians to get more German made weapons. The problem is not to get the Ukrainians to be operational with Leo2s, the logistics and the training for the technicians to maintain the Leo2s is the major issue. The crew needs maybe three weeks to get the Leo2 up and running.

There is a pressure on the German government to allow other countries to send their German made weapons. The Germans also know this harm the German defense industry a lot.

Ukraine will get more offensive capable systems from the West, it's only a question of time.

Btw, the majority of the European countries that have Leo2s don't have any Soviet/Russian equipment

The major issue with western MBTs for Ukraine besides maintenance would surely be training a 4th crewman from scratch as it is a role they have never had.
 
Btw, the majority of the European countries that have Leo2s don't have any Soviet/Russian equipment

It is very doubtful that these countries will give their Leos to Ukraine ( these Leos costed them a lot of money and they have no money to buy new ones ) and it is very doubtful that these Leos would benefit Ukraine, not only for logistical problems (these would be enormously increased if Ukraine would have AND Soviet tanks AND Western tanks ),but also because one can question the utility of Leos in Ukraine, as there are no tank battles in this war .
Poland has more than 300 T 72 tanks .
What is better for Poland ? To get rid of its soviet tanks or to get rid of its Leos ?
What is better for Ukraine ? To receive 300 T 72s or to receive 300 Leos ? It has already received more than 200 soviet tanks from Poland and Czechia and its army is using soviet tanks since the independence .
Poland has ordered some 120 Abrams which is good for Chrysler,these will replace the T 72s .To send 120 Abrams to Ukraine would be good for Chrysler and its Congress members , bad for the US taxpayer,but would it be good for Ukraine ?
 
The major issue with western MBTs for Ukraine besides maintenance would surely be training a 4th crewman from scratch as it is a role they have never had.

I don't see that as a major problem. The Ukrainians got upgraded T-55s which have a fourth crew member without any major issues. Swedish recruits learn to load the main gun pretty fast and I don't think Ukrainian recruits are worse than Swedish recruits. Usually all members of the crew must be able to take aný of the other crew members position. The gunner and the driver require more training than to be a loader. It also depends on how many MBTs Ukraine gets. Ukraine needs also most likely repair/recover vehicles for the Western MBTs. The American Abrams require a huge logistical chain and that will be an issue for Ukraine.


But if the Ukrainians prefer to get MBTs without a crew of four. The Leclerc and the South Korean K2 Black Panther are better alternatives.
 
It has been in the air for some time now, but it is official. Ukraine gets 12 Archer howitzers by Sweden. It will be a lethal contribution to the Ukrainian army and with Excaliburs, BONUS, SMArt, RAAM, the HIMARS and M270 MLRS. It will be painful to be Russian and really dangerous to be in any of their vehicles
 
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