Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

Because they are better educated than what you are

I have a fear this thread is entering a downward spiral, there is a pretty common phrase that applies here "Opinions are like a***holes, everyone has one and everyone thinks the other guys stinks".

Can I request that having just gotten an active thread functioning we don't destroy it by getting personal.

In this case as usual I rarely disagree with his points just the conclusions.
 
I have a fear this thread is entering a downward spiral, there is a pretty common phrase that applies here "Opinions are like a***holes, everyone has one and everyone thinks the other guys stinks".

Can I request that having just gotten an active thread functioning we don't destroy it by getting personal.

Ok, I will respect that. I deleted my comment about education
 
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Ok, I will respect that. I deleted my comment about education

Hey it is just my opinion.
:)

One thing I noticed a few years ago on other forums was that how comments are translated individually varies from region to region for example I have a great deal of difficulty in processing Scandinavian English, it comes across as abrupt and aggressive even when it isn't.
It took quite a while for me to understand this but it made communication much easier once I did.
 
I apologize Illjadw, so how I know about their ability to speak English. Ukraine does have a decent educational system and those who have been educated after the collapse of the Soviet Union speak English. Senior commanders of the Ukrainian armed forces speak it too. I know because I have met them and asked about it. Their senor commanders have been trained to use the NATO command structure since 2014 and they have been pretty good at it.

How instructors train people speaking another language, its fairly simple. If we take instructors for the Javelin. One instructors educate about 50 Ukrainian instructors and they go out to educate other Ukrainians how to use the weapon. It is not complicated for trained soldiers to learn how to use other weapons, unless you want to use infantry soldiers as tankers or gunners. What takes longer is to educate technicians repair other systems.

How a defender can defeat an attacker. It depends on the terrain. In forest areas and areas with few roads. Use the same MO as how the Finns fought the Soviets, a small force actually defeated a much stronger force. Another example is how the Israelis fought the Syrians on the Golan Heights. When the enemy is losing its cohesion, your own forces can counterattack. Ukraine has a varied terrain so it is up the local commanders to decide to do what.
 
Hey it is just my opinion.
:)

One thing I noticed a few years ago on other forums was that how comments are translated individually varies from region to region for example I have a great deal of difficulty in processing Scandinavian English, it comes across as abrupt and aggressive even when it isn't.
It took quite a while for me to understand this but it made communication much easier once I did.

Oh, good point.
 
How a defender can defeat an attacker. It depends on the terrain. In forest areas and areas with few roads. Use the same MO as how the Finns fought the Soviets, a small force actually defeated a much stronger force. Another example is how the Israelis fought the Syrians on the Golan Heights. When the enemy is losing its cohesion, your own forces can counterattack. Ukraine has a varied terrain so it is up the local commanders to decide to do what.

The problem is that you can't stay on defence forever, for example despite inflicting huge casualties on the Soviets the Finn's lost.

The problem for the Ukrainians is the same no matter how long they hold the Russians they will keep coming and eventually something will crack, the only hope for the Ukrainians is that they can do enough damage to bring about an end to Putin which is why I believe they need to hit the same infrastructure in Russia that the Russians are attacking in Ukraine.
 
The problem is that you can't stay on defence forever, for example despite inflicting huge casualties on the Soviets the Finn's lost.

The problem for the Ukrainians is the same no matter how long they hold the Russians they will keep coming and eventually something will crack, the only hope for the Ukrainians is that they can do enough damage to bring about an end to Putin which is why I believe they need to hit the same infrastructure in Russia that the Russians are attacking in Ukraine.

That's what the Ukrainians can hope the casualty figures cannot be sustainable. Nobody can take the same casualties similar as what countries suffered during WWII. That's why I hesitate to compare this war with WWII, the world has changed a lot since 1945

Maybe not providing the Ukrainians with the systems that can destroy the power grid around Vladivostok, but sure I agree with letting them have systems that can hit infrastructure and logistics in the regions close to Ukraine
 
Surely that argument runs contrary to the argument you have used though.

If as you say we can't claim the Javelin is a success because we don't know how many tanks have been destroyed by them equally, we can't call it a failure for exactly the same reason?

What we can say is that ATGMs and Drones are taking out Russian armour (Ukraine isn't complaining about them) and Ukraine seems to have enough of them to blunt Russian armoured attacks therefore they are doing their job.
If they weren't then I am going to bet anything you like infantry would be dumping them on the roadside unused rather than carrying around an extra 25kg of useless weight.

Our media call the Javelins/drones very successful and very accurate,but refuse to give the proofs for their claims .
The media are unable to say how many tanks were destroyed by Javelins/drones and how many Javelins/drones are needed to destroy ONE tank .
We know that thousands of Javelins and drones have been fired and that only a small number of tanks were destroyed . That is enough to say that
a they are not successful and accurate
b that they are a failure .
There are also no proofs that Russian armored attacks ( there were how many of these ? ) were stopped,blunted by the use of Javelins/drones .
The fact is that most Russian tanks were lost in defense, by attrition fights,by non combat causes and not by armored attacks, of which there were only a few .
Other fact is that successful Russian armored attacks were not dangerous for Ukraine and did not help Russia as it is impossible for Russia to win the war with territorial advances ,which are also doomed to fail .
 
The problem is that you can't stay on defence forever, for example despite inflicting huge casualties on the Soviets the Finn's lost.

The problem for the Ukrainians is the same no matter how long they hold the Russians they will keep coming and eventually something will crack, the only hope for the Ukrainians is that they can do enough damage to bring about an end to Putin which is why I believe they need to hit the same infrastructure in Russia that the Russians are attacking in Ukraine.

Oh yes : you can stay on defense for ever .The war in Ukraine has evolved ( very soon and very fast ) in a war of attrition and,if Ukraine remains on defense, the Russians must attack .
All depends on what is the best for Ukraine .
And the example of Finland is wrong : Finland remained on defense,because it was too weak to attack .
And it lost,not because it remained on defense, but because the Soviets were too strong . Finland would also have lost if it was going to attack .
 
Oh yes : you can stay on defense for ever .The war in Ukraine has evolved ( very soon and very fast ) in a war of attrition and,if Ukraine remains on defense, the Russians must attack .
All depends on what is the best for Ukraine .
And the example of Finland is wrong : Finland remained on defense,because it was too weak to attack .
And it lost,not because it remained on defense, but because the Soviets were too strong . Finland would also have lost if it was going to attack .

Not really, Finns attacked with small mobile units and cut the Russian off from their own supplies, they called it motti. The word means the pieces somebody gets when the chop up a tree in manageable pieces. It was successful and caused a lot of casualties for the Russians. However, the world has changed since the winter war and countries cannot sustain similar casualties as what the warring parties suffered during WWII.
 
Not really, Finns attacked with small mobile units and cut the Russian off from their own supplies, they called it motti. The word means the pieces somebody gets when the chop up a tree in manageable pieces. It was successful and caused a lot of casualties for the Russians. However, the world has changed since the winter war and countries cannot sustain similar casualties as what the warring parties suffered during WWII.

These attacks with small mobile units did not expel the Russians from Finland and they still ended with a Finnish defeat .
 
I apologize Illjadw, so how I know about their ability to speak English. Ukraine does have a decent educational system and those who have been educated after the collapse of the Soviet Union speak English. Senior commanders of the Ukrainian armed forces speak it too. I know because I have met them and asked about it. Their senor commanders have been trained to use the NATO command structure since 2014 and they have been pretty good at it.

How instructors train people speaking another language, its fairly simple. If we take instructors for the Javelin. One instructors educate about 50 Ukrainian instructors and they go out to educate other Ukrainians how to use the weapon. It is not complicated for trained soldiers to learn how to use other weapons, unless you want to use infantry soldiers as tankers or gunners. What takes longer is to educate technicians repair other systems.

How a defender can defeat an attacker. It depends on the terrain. In forest areas and areas with few roads. Use the same MO as how the Finns fought the Soviets, a small force actually defeated a much stronger force. Another example is how the Israelis fought the Syrians on the Golan Heights. When the enemy is losing its cohesion, your own forces can counterattack. Ukraine has a varied terrain so it is up the local commanders to decide to do what.

About the linguistic abilities of the Ukrainians : these are not better than those of the average Germans, French,Belgians, Italians :to speak,understand English depends only on a small part on the educational system,what is decisive is the chance to speak English and this is mostly lacking .
Ask in Belgium,France, etc in English for the directions,the result will be that in 90 % + of the cases,people will be unable to answer you in English .That Ukrainian generals are used to speak English ,does not mean that this is the case for Ukrainian officers,NCO,soldiers .
It is also an exaggeration to say that to defeat an attacker depends on the terrain .Much more important is the strength of both parties and their willingness to commit more resources and their willingness to accept huge losses.
And, counterattacks are not needed .Unless to stop the enemy attacks elsewhere .
The Soviet attacks against AGC in the Winter of 1941-1942 failed,not because of the terrain, not because of the weather but because the Soviets were not strong enough and because the German soldiers obeyed Hitler's order not to retreat .
The Soviets had never any chance to liberate Smolensk,Minsk,Warsaw and to parade in Berlin in April 1942 and the counterattacks of the Ukrainians will not result in the capture of Gomel or Kursk .Because it is not possible and not needed .
Russian attacks did not result in March into their presence on the border with Poland and will not do it this Winter .Besides,there is no need and no possibility for the Russians to go to the border.
A defender can defeat the attacker by remaining defensive . See Verdun .
 
About the Javelins :
no one knows how many Javelins were available on 24 February and how many Ukrainian soldiers could use them .
In April the US said that they did send /would send 7000 Javelins
In August the US said that they did/would send 5000 Javelins .
But no one knows how many have arrived today (6 November ),how many were used and what was the result of their use ,numerical result ( how many tanks were destroyed )and ''strategical '' result : what was the result of the destruction of the tanks ? The loss of 100 tanks can be more important than the loss of 500 tanks .
If there were no Javelins in February,would the war be over with a Russian victory ? Very unlikely .
If there were no Javelins today ,would the Russians still occupy 20 % of Ukraine, or less ,or more ?
The only things we can say are
1 the presence of only a few Javelins in February did not result in a Russian victory
2 The presence of thousands of Javelins today has not resulted in a Russian collaps .
The Javelin/drones propaganda remembers me the Lend Lease propaganda of the Cold War and of still today :influenced by the Germans,US media said that US had won the war in the East ,because without LL,the Russian Untermenschen would have lost from the Germans .
It is the same today :US /Western media arrogate to themselves the ''Ukrainian victory '',better the ''Russian defeat '',saying that Western quality weapons won a war again .
Not only is this wrong, but it is a dangerous self-deceit : look at Vietnam and Afghanistan .
 
Quite interesting. NZ is imposing sanctions against Russia so she is violating the sanctions. Is she a NZ citizen or a permanent resident? The Canadians can revoke citizenships if the person has committed a serious offense, is this in this category? Probably not. To clarify, Canada can revoke citizenships if a person has immigrated to Canada from another country and later apply for citizenship and became a citizen.

Can she be extradited even if she is a citizen? Yes, she can if NZ and Ukraine has reached an agreement about it prior this event, but it also depends on the crime. Usually crimes that can be within the legal framework of extraditions are severe violent, drugs (organized criminality) , and/or sexual crimes.

If she is just a resident, I assume the NZ will kick her out

Well, it seems resolved, much like the Russian army when the going got tough she ran away.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceani...ian-army-flees-to-moscow-20221106-p5bvyb.html

Much like the Ukrainian representative, Moscow seems like the best place for her, I am guessing once identified she was done here.
 
This will probably cause some grief but I got sent the link by a friend in Poland and parts of it are funny...

Ivan is gone


I have heard Ukrainian versions of it (this is the only English version I can find) but I suspect it was written by a pro-artillery type.
;)

Just for fun I think this is the Ukrainian version not that I understand a word of Ukrainian...

Ivan is gone
 

Yes, on the paper the Russians should have been able to dominating the skies. But that can also be a part of Russian military doctrine. Russia and earlier the Soviets military doctrine didn't focus much on close air support for the ground forces. They used their artillery to smash everything in front of them and then attacking in waves. The Soviet air power was more directed to hit air bases, ports etc. The paper mentioned how the Russians are attacking stationary targets instead of hitting supply lines.
 
Yes, on the paper the Russians should have been able to dominating the skies. But that can also be a part of Russian military doctrine. Russia and earlier the Soviets military doctrine didn't focus much on close air support for the ground forces. They used their artillery to smash everything in front of them and then attacking in waves. The Soviet air power was more directed to hit air bases, ports etc. The paper mentioned how the Russians are attacking stationary targets instead of hitting supply lines.

There is a rumour doing the rounds that Ukraine is already across the Dnipro river and has landed troops on the Kinburn Spit.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...rces-retreat-keep-an-eye-on-the-kinburn-spit/
 
If I were a Ukrainian commander, I would "fix" the Russian on the east side of the river and attack somewhere else. Maybe from Zaporizhzhia against Melitopol and a support attack against Mariupol to protect the flank

The problem I see with a move in that area is that it forces them into a two front battle and if one fails then they are in big trouble.
If they can get across the river that spit of land should be able to receive supplies from Ochakiv and artillery support from the west bank of Kherson not to mention that it keeps Russian troops in the area rather than allowing them to redeploy, add to that the knowledge that all major roads from Crimea are within missile range and I think it makes sense.

But who knows what is going on as there are reports of them crossing the Antonivka bridge and the Russians have abandoned Oleshky, you know the old maxim "the first casualty of war is the truth".
 
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