Chief Bones said:
Dean
Keep your dreams alive. We all have them ... but ... I am not very hopeful that diplomacy will work out any better this time than it did the last two times that Hezbollah And Hamas received a diplomatic settlement with Israel.
HAMAS - Israel gave up claims to certain lands to Palestinian people. What happened? - Hamas went to the highest points of land and lobbed rockets into Israel and then began another round of bombings.
HEZBOLLAH - Israel pulled out of occupied lands in the southern part of Lebanon and turned control over to the Lebanese government with the agreement that Hezbollah would be moved out of the southern lands and disarmed. What happened? - Hezbollah went into Israel on armed raids, captured Israeli soldiers and then started terrorist attacks against Israel.
Every time that Israel has tried to give the UN (or) any other body a chance to craft a diplomatic solution that will allow Israel to live in peace, some terrorist group rises up and breaks the agreement almost faster than the ink can dry. The biggest stumbling block was/is/will be - Iran and Syria.
Iran, because they pull the strings and arm both Hezbollah and Hamas.
Syria, because they are responsible for getting weapons, ammo and other supplies to Hezbollah.
Until these two countries are dealt with and made to assume responsibility for their own actions, peace in the Middle East will be but a dream. SO - keep dreaming Dean.
The only reasons that I have more hope this time are as follows.
1. Some of the peacekeeping troops will be Muslims, and Hezbollah cannot fire on them with out losing some of their support.
2. The Lebanese army is supposed to take positions in the south, and again, Hezbollah cannot engage them.
3. Lebanon has finally seen the results of allowing the power vacuum to form in the south. In the end, it cost them most if not all of their major transport infrastructures, many villages and towns destroyed, and somewhere around 1000 dead.
4. If no real action is taken, we can look forward to a repetition of this scrap, but the next time, the butcher's bill will be far higher. The Lebanese government is the first to realize this.
In the past, Hezbollah did not have any real reason to follow the UN resolutions, so they did nothing. This time, there are concrete reasons that mitigate against Hezbollah's continuing its operations in the south, although it does remain to be seen if indeed the Lebanese Army in particular has the stones to go up against Hezbollah. The French Foreign Legion definitely can, but they will definitely need PR help to do the job right.
I am not a dreamer. There remain far to many 'ifs' in this equation. But this is the first time that concrete steps are being taken that may result in the neutralization of Hezbollah as a guerilla force. Personally, I remain very doubful that this will work, but like I said, this time, it LOOKS better than in ever has. But really, I remain of the opinion that this was merely round two of a three round fight. The difference is that for round three, the gloves will really be off, and Hezbollah will be crushed.
Dean.