Western Allies v German Wehrmacht 1944

[Arclight]

What you're forgetting is that the first atomic bombs were incredibly heavy. Little boy weighed 9,000 pounds. Germany did not have a strategic bomber force. The Ju-188 could carry 4,400 pounds, the H-111 could cary 2,200 pounds. A V2 could only carry one ton, and the V3 is just a cross channel weapon. Hypothetically the Luftwaffe could have used a strategic bomber prototype to deliver an atomic weapon, not that one existed. Even the HE-177 couldn't have carried Little Boy. The only German plane that could take off with Little Boy was a transport, and it wouldn't have stood a snowballs chance in h**l. The Ju-287 would have been slower then propellor based interceptors and even if it could carry the weight, well you couldn't fit the bomb inside it. They certainly didn't have an assembled jet that could carry something as massive as an atomic bomb and out run allied interceptors.

If Germany had tried to deliver a nuclear weapon to any major allied city the bomber in question would have been shot down before even reaching England or Paris. Just about the only method they could have used to deliver an atomic weapon to a city is a U-Boat, and even that was risky for an important harbor.

Not to mention that the Allied nuclear program was literally years ahead of any Germany program.

Good points, I never really thought about that situation.

 

[PershingOfLSU]

One last note on the V1 Ju287, a B-29 is slightly faster as far as maximum speed is concerned. A B-29 is also heavier armed, and can carry more ordinance a further distance.

Germany's Atomic Bomb program was years behind that of the allies for a variety of reasons. First Hitler divided up the nuclear program into several competitive teams. Which meant that they were constantly retreading ground that the other teams had already discovered. Also Germany relied on heavy water produced in Norway to regulate any possible reactor. The German method for building an atomic pile simply could not function without heavy water. The Norwegian heavy water plant was rendered non-functional by partisans and the German heavy water supply was destroyed at sea. Germany did not have a fuctional atomic pile. Without a functioning reactor they could not begin to produce plutonium for use in an atomic weapon. By 1942 the United States already had an atomic pile functioning in Chicago. Germany would also make a number of mistakes that would prevent any reactor of theirs from going critical. With the result that the atomic pile they built did not work. By the time they could have redesigned a pile around graphite instead of heavy water or built a new heavy water plant the Allies would have had the bomb for years. Historically the German nuclear works were also destroyed by an air raid in 1945. If that were to occur in this alternate time line the German atomic bomb project would have been set even further behind the Manhattan project.

 

[Doppleganger]

One thing to consider is that, although Germany could not have retaliated with nuclear weapons, they could have with chemical weapons. Germany in 1945 had a 12,000 tonnes Sarin and a 12,000 tonnes Tabun production capacity per year. With this amount of potential chemical agent they could have literally poisoned the British Isles. They also had the delivery systems in place with their V2 and V3 rockets. The Western Allies would be very aware of this as their intelligence was much better than that of Germany's and I think they'd be hesitant to escalate any conflict to a nuclear one for fear of chemical retaliation. There was no effective antidote for nerve weapons available to the Western Allies and any deployment of nerve gas would IMO devastate the UK.

So IMO forget about this conflict turning into a WMD one. Both sides are well aware that they cannot escalate for fear of devastating reprisals.

 

[Jäger]

Germany would never had used the chemical weapons they had produced till 1945. Hitler was a crazy psychotic, but he had a dislike to chemical weapons. Maybe, because he was a victim of this weapon in WWI himself

 

[MontyB]

Germany would never had used the chemical weapons they had produced till 1945. Hitler was a crazy psychotic, but he had a dislike to chemical weapons. Maybe, because he was a victim of this weapon in WWI himself

I think he would have used it in retaliation to an atomic strike on Germany, the only question I have on this topic is whether the allies would have used an atomic bomb on Germany at all.
I think the anti-Japanese feeling and views ran a lot deeper than the anti-German ones.

 

[PershingOfLSU]

By the time the Allies would have been able to use atomic weapons against Germany, the German capability to deliver a nerve agent such as Sarin was almost entirely gone. Not to mention that the Germans would have known that doing so would have invited Britain to have unleashed it's own considerable stockpile of chemical weapons. Albeit older then their German counterparts.

Secondly, although V2 loaded with Sarin would have caused more damage than a V2 loaded with explosives, it would still be localized. Britain would have simply mass produced gas masks or further evacuated the cities. And although the Germans may have had 12,000 tonnes of Sarin gas, they certainly didn't have the means to deliver it all.

Lastly, if the Germans had started to launch chemical weapons at Britain, the campaign to eradicate V2 launch sites would have greatly intensified.

 

[ghost457]

i voted for a stalemate because i think the Allied air superiority and the Axis land forces would have balanced out long enough for the Germans to produce more planes to even it out. however, i think that if the Germans had defeated Russia before D-Day, it would have been a huge one-sided turkey shoot, of course wiht our boys as the turkeys, but since this scenario assumes we got D-Day out the way, i voted for a stalemate.

 

[PershingOfLSU]

I'm not quite sure how you expect more German ground forces in western Europe to prevent the 8th Air Force from reducing Germany's oil production capability to rubble. In the end the problem wasn't that Germany didn't have enough planes, it was that it didn't have enough fuel or pilots.

 

[MontyB]

I'm not quite sure how you expect more German ground forces in western Europe to prevent the 8th Air Force from reducing Germany's oil production capability to rubble. In the end the problem wasn't that Germany didn't have enough planes, it was that it didn't have enough fuel or pilots.

I really think the key to this whole scenario lies in the hands of the Luftwaffes eastern front capabilities at the time of the Russian defeat.

If they had enough strength/quality left to gain air superiority between Russia, Romainia and eastern Germany then they "may" have been able to transfer troops and materials west in relative safety which would have given them a fighting chance of securing a level of air parity prior to D-Day.

I dont believe that the Luftwaffe could have hoped to regain total air superiority imediately as the numbers stacked up against them were just too high but given a a few months (6-12) I think they could have inflicted enough damage on the allied airforces to make Germany and its production more secure.

I do believe that given time a stalemate would have been more than possible but the Germans would have had to have prevented the allies getting ashore in France and probably thrown them out of Italy as I believe that as long as allied troops were on the ground in Europe they would have won eventually.

 

[Doppleganger]

Just some random points.

The Allies had already landed in this hypothetical scenario. Perhaps the Germans are following Guderian's advice to allow the Allied Armies to advance inland before counter-attacking. This would hopefully replicate for them the huge encirclements achieved in Russia.

The Luftwaffe is quite a bit stronger than historically. The Luftwaffe has very little strategic bombing capability to speak of, but it probably has, man for man, the best CAS and Air Superiority capability in the world. It certainly has the most seasoned pilots.

It has been argued that strategic bombing is only truly effective on an already defeated opponent. In this scenario that is far from the case.

The Allies may run out of logistics, albeit temporarily, as they did historically.

If the weather dictates that Allied Air strikes are ruled out, a few days may be all that's needed for the Wehrmacht to achieve a decisive result. The forces available to Germany at Stalingrad and Kursk will probably be available to them here. That means 6th Army, 17 Army, 1st Panzerarmee, 4th Panzerarmee. There is no comparison between these forces and the forces available historically to the Germans.

If the Wehrmacht can deny the Allies the major ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam the Allied Armies will have their major supply depots denied to them.

If entire US Armies are cut off in the field and destroyed, will that affect US public opinion at home to 'bring the boys home'?

Likewise, if UK Armies are similarly destroyed, will Churchill be overthrown and say someone like Lord Halifax appointed who would secure a separate peace with Hitler?

If the Wehrmacht is gradually pushed back to Berlin and eventually loses, the casualties for the Western Armies will probably be much higher than historically.

 

[MontyB]

Just some random points.

The Allies had already landed in this hypothetical scenario. Perhaps the Germans are following Guderian's advice to allow the Allied Armies to advance inland before counter-attacking. This would hopefully replicate for them the huge encirclements achieved in Russia.

Unfortunately this is one of the few times I agree entirely with Rommel the allies needed to be thrown back from the beaches, if they managed to get established ashore then it was all over but the shouting for the Germans.

The Luftwaffe is quite a bit stronger than historically. The Luftwaffe has very little strategic bombing capability to speak of, but it probably has, man for man, the best CAS and Air Superiority capability in the world. It certainly has the most seasoned pilots.

To be perfectly honest I doubt that even had the Luftwaffe had all the resources of 1939-1941 at its disposal they would have been able to match the shear numbers and relatively even quality of the allied airforces.
The RAF by this stage had already been through the Battle of Britain and was probably as experienced as the Luftwaffe pilots and both the RAF and USAF were producing aircraft that were technically as good as the Luftwaffe by 1943-44.

It has been argued that strategic bombing is only truly effective on an already defeated opponent. In this scenario that is far from the case.

This bit is possible however by 1944 the allied bombers are being escorted all the way to Berlin by P51D's which is the equal of any German fighter so in reality the Luftwaffe would have had a serious problem trying to regain any air superiority in western europe.

If entire US Armies are cut off in the field and destroyed, will that affect US public opinion at home to 'bring the boys home'?

I think this scenario would have simply pissed them off more and ended up in Hitler receiving a nuke as soon as it was available.

Likewise, if UK Armies are similarly destroyed, will Churchill be overthrown and say someone like Lord Halifax appointed who would secure a separate peace with Hitler?

1941 - 42 maybe but 1944 not a chance the war had gone on too long and the British had survived too much by then to simply say screw it and give in.

If the Wehrmacht is gradually pushed back to Berlin and eventually loses, the casualties for the Western Armies will probably be much higher than historically.

I have no doubt this would have been the case and personally given this scenario and a successful attempt on Hitlers life I think a negotiated peace may have been possible but once the allies were on the ground and established in France I dont believe the Germans could have won.

 

[Young Winston]

One thing to consider is that, although Germany could not have retaliated with nuclear weapons, they could have with chemical weapons. Germany in 1945 had a 12,000 tonnes Sarin and a 12,000 tonnes Tabun production capacity per year. With this amount of potential chemical agent they could have literally poisoned the British Isles. They also had the delivery systems in place with their V2 and V3 rockets. The Western Allies would be very aware of this as their intelligence was much better than that of Germany's and I think they'd be hesitant to escalate any conflict to a nuclear one for fear of chemical retaliation. There was no effective antidote for nerve weapons available to the Western Allies and any deployment of nerve gas would IMO devastate the UK.

So IMO forget about this conflict turning into a WMD one. Both sides are well aware that they cannot escalate for fear of devastating reprisals.

Germany would have needed much of its forces to garrison a defeated USSR.

They would have needed a very strong airforce to defeat the allies.

I am not sure the US would have used nuclear weapons on the german people. Hitler would have had to have made a strong threat first.

Good points though Dopps.

Maybe a stalemate in Europe.

 

[LeEnfield]

Germany would always have lost due to sheer weight of numbers of the people against them. There was talk on this thread about the German fighter the Me 262, well the Gloucester Meteor was in action during 1944 and gets very Little credit for it's work. several Squadrons of the the Meteor were station in Belgium in late 1944 at the Americans request to escort their bombers and protect them from the 262. Now the 262 I think was a better design than the Meteor but the Meteor had far better engines and in 1945 was clocking up 600 mph plus. As far as I can tell these jet planes never met in combat so any comparison is just a persons personal view and their knowledge about the planes, and every one seems to know far more about the 262 than the Meteor.
Doppleganger also brought up about chemical warfare, well Britain had perfected the Anthrax bombs back in 1940, these had been tested on a small island just of the Scottish coast they were so successful that this island remained closed to people till the 1990's when the whole surface of the island was cleared put into containers and taken away, even so visiting this place is still restricted. After testing these weapons it was made clear to Hitler that if he went down this path and bombed Britain with any thing than conventional weapons then these bombs would cover Germany and make it impossible for any one to live there for many years in the future.