Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[MontyB]

With so many loses of men and material, Putin is now calling up 70 year old's to fight the Ukrainians, if that's not an admission of defeat I don't know what is. What next T34's with a new coat of paint?

Is there any evidence that 70 year olds are being called up by the state as opposed to down and out 70 year olds being pressganged by dodgy recruiters or just Ukrainian propaganda?

I have had a quick look and found nothing about it but there have been multiple reports of 40-60 year olds ending up at the front after volunteering for other duties, sign up as a doctor and end up driving a tank type stories.

 

[BritinBritain]

Is there any evidence that 70 year olds are being called up by the state as opposed to down and out 70 year olds being pressganged by dodgy recruiters or just Ukrainian propaganda?

I have had a quick look and found nothing about it but there have been multiple reports of 40-60 year olds ending up at the front after volunteering for other duties, sign up as a doctor and end up driving a tank type stories.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ear-olds-readies-100-000-men-Ukraine-war.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-nuclear-threat-war-russia-ukraine-kremlin-ftdpql7qs

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ear-olds-readies-100-000-men-Ukraine-war.html

 

[MontyB]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ear-olds-readies-100-000-men-Ukraine-war.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-nuclear-threat-war-russia-ukraine-kremlin-ftdpql7qs

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ear-olds-readies-100-000-men-Ukraine-war.html

What the hell does he think a 70 year old is going to do at the front other than soak up a bullet, war is a young man's game started by old men.

I am starting to get the impression that Putin is desperate to end this thing and thinks one "big push" will do it but if Ukraine can survive it then the Russian economy must start to crack under the lack of manpower especially if they are encouraging women to sacrifice careers for babies.

 

[lljadw]

What the hell does he think a 70 year old is going to do at the front other than soak up a bullet, war is a young man's game started by old men.

I am starting to get the impression that Putin is desperate to end this thing and thinks one "big push" will do it but if Ukraine can survive it then the Russian economy must start to crack under the lack of manpower especially if they are encouraging women to sacrifice careers for babies.

The lack of manpower is not caused by the small losses in Ukraine (30000 KIA is not much for a population of 140 million ) ,but by the insufficient trained reserves : only a small part of each year class can be called up for military service .
The Russian army is mostly a professional army of volunteers .Or ''volunteers '' .
And, as the source of the claims of the Daily Mail,etc, is the Ukrainian propaganda service ,I remain sceptical til we can have the pictures of dead or captured Russian soldiers who are 70 .
There are also no proofs that the Russian economy is cracking under the lack of manpower :400000 men fighting in Ukraine and thus not available for the economy is almost insignificant for a population of 140 million .
In September 1939 Belgium mobilized 600000 men ,on a population of 8 million,and its economy did not collaps.

 

[BritinBritain]

What the hell does he think a 70 year old is going to do at the front other than soak up a bullet, war is a young man's game started by old men.

I am starting to get the impression that Putin is desperate to end this thing and thinks one "big push" will do it but if Ukraine can survive it then the Russian economy must start to crack under the lack of manpower especially if they are encouraging women to sacrifice careers for babies.

Even a 70 year old given a rifle and plenty of ammunition can do all manner of damage.

Thousands of Nestlé staff at risk of conscription in Russia
Food giant refuses to say whether it would intervene to stop employees being called up

More than 7,000 Nestlé workers in Russia are at risk of being conscripted into the Ukraine war as the company comes under pressure to withdraw from the country....

Who will Putin call up next........school boys as Hitler did as his empire crumbled around him?

 

[MontyB]

Even a 70 year old given a rifle and plenty of ammunition can do all manner of damage.

Thousands of Nestlé staff at risk of conscription in Russia
Food giant refuses to say whether it would intervene to stop employees being called up

More than 7,000 Nestlé workers in Russia are at risk of being conscripted into the Ukraine war as the company comes under pressure to withdraw from the country....

Who will Putin call up next........school boys as Hitler did as his empire crumbled around him?

I have some issues with this as the numbers don't stack up.
Let's assume that Ukraine is right and has killed 240000 (I suspect this is unrealistic although I am inclined think 240k is the number of KIA/WIA/POW in total) add in WIA/POW at 3:1 and you end up close to 1 million casualties (again I don't believe this number).
Russia with a population of 144 million should be able to call on roughly 15 million so there should be no need to call up 70 year olds.

 

[lljadw]

The unproved and onprovable Ukrainian claim of 242000 Russian KIA is ''only '' 242000 KIA,WIA and MIA .
The US estimate ( better : guess ) is 50000 killed and 180000 wounded,the BBC claims (guess )that on 7 July 2023 the Russian losses were 55000 killed and 192000 wounded .
There is NO reason at all to accept these figures,which are probably exaggerations ,as were the claims of Stalin about the German losses in 1941 :he said on 7 November that the Germans had lost 4,5 million men, while their losses were some 700000 .
The Russian figures about their losses are also unreliable as are AND the Russian claims about Ukrainian losses AND the Ukrainian claims about their losses .
It is all propaganda, besides :it is not important: losses do not determine who wins .
Other point : the WIA/MIA /KIA calculation of 3/1 is not always correct .See Stalingrad .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Where are we about the war in Ukraine? Oh yes, the Russian have shifted from attacking shopping malls, restaurants, and playgrounds. They have attacked cultural sites on UNESCO's list. What next? Opera houses?

 

[lljadw]

Where are we about the war in Ukraine? Oh yes, the Russian have shifted from attacking shopping malls, restaurants, and playgrounds. They have attacked cultural sites on UNESCO's list. What next? Opera houses?

Is there any proof that these cultural sites were deliberately attacked ?
And in WW2 US and Britain also destroyed German cultural sites,as did the Germans in the USSR, the USSR in Germany, etc, etc ...
In Coventry, Dresden,Stalingrad, Warsaw, etc, etc, cultural sites were attacked and nobody wisely complained .
Thus ....

 

[MontyB]

Is there any proof that these cultural sites were deliberately attacked ?
And in WW2 US and Britain also destroyed German cultural sites,as did the Germans in the USSR, the USSR in Germany, etc, etc ...
In Coventry, Dresden,Stalingrad, Warsaw, etc, etc, cultural sites were attacked and nobody wisely complained .
Thus ....

I think you would have to be completely oblivious to reality or prepared to argue that Russian precision weapons are completely useless to try and pass off all the playgrounds, apartment blocks, hospitals and now cultural sites that have been hit well behind the front lines as "accidental", I can buy the odd missile going astray but this is a pattern that is far too frequent to be mechanical error.

So, the proof is in the frequency that it is happening.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

The Russian "precision" weapons cannot even make the Ukrainian air bases inoperable. Nor attacking the Ukrainian logistics or any other targets which can impede the Ukrainian war effort.

This is not the second world war

 

[lljadw]

I think you would have to be completely oblivious to reality or prepared to argue that Russian precision weapons are completely useless to try and pass off all the playgrounds, apartment blocks, hospitals and now cultural sites that have been hit well behind the front lines as "accidental", I can buy the odd missile going astray but this is a pattern that is far too frequently to be mechanical error.

So, the proof is in the frequency that it is happening.

You are exaggerating the degree of Russian ''precision '' weapons .
You can not target hospitals,apartment blocks, cultural sites, etc with missiles or drones ,who are launched from a far distant point :the farther the distance, the smaller the accuracy .The precision of drones is a myth,spread by the sellers of drones :the Ukrainian drones who targeted the Russian military HQ in Moscow,missed totally their target and ended up more than a km away from it .

 

[MontyB]

The Russian "precision" weapons cannot even make the Ukrainian air bases inoperable. Nor attacking the Ukrainian logistics or any other targets which can impede the Ukrainian war effort.

This is not the second world war

You know what cracks me up the most, the likes of Medvedev who keeps threatening other countries and seemingly think the world should be scared of them, has it escaped his notice that Vlad and the 400000 thieves haven't managed to make it 150km into Ukraine in a year and a half, it is another 2000km from the Ukrainian border to London.

The world grows less scared and more disgusted by their antics daily, the Russian military has gone from worrying, to confusing to amusing and finally pathetic, I am not sure how much further they can sink.

 

[lljadw]

About Drones and precision :
The (very interventionist ) Atlantic : 24 April 2015 : Drones are not as precise as their proponents claim .
and
Drone Vision :Towards a Critique of the Rhetoric of Precision .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

You know what cracks me up the most, the likes of Medvedev who keeps threatening other countries and seemingly think the world should be scared of them, has it escaped his notice that Vlad and the 400000 thieves haven't managed to make it 150km into Ukraine in a year and a half, it is another 2000km from the Ukrainian border to London.

The world grows less scared and more disgusted by their antics daily, the Russian military has gone from worrying, to confusing to amusing and finally pathetic, I am not sure how much further they can sink.

Lukashenko in Belarus claimed the Wagner Group plans to take a trip to Warsaw. I am struggling and telling myself "Don't underestimate the Russians, but it is really hard to not doing that when we see the Russian performance during this war. They have been better to defend against the Ukrainian counter offensive, but they had months to prepare for the defense. The mines seem to be the major problem for the Ukrainians and the small drones used by Russian forces causes some headache.

 

[lljadw]

The Russian "precision" weapons cannot even make the Ukrainian air bases inoperable. Nor attacking the Ukrainian logistics or any other targets which can impede the Ukrainian war effort.

This is not the second world war

If the Russian precision weapons are unable to make the Ukrainian air bases inoperable, how could they be able to destroy Ukrainian cultural sites ?
The attack was directed ( following Reuters ) on the port of Odesa and the distance between the port and the cathedral is 3,5 km .
No wonder that the cathedral was hurt .
The missiles and drones from Russia AND Ukraine are not much preciser than the allied and German bombers from WW2 ,or the German V1 and V2 .
In December 1944 a German V2 fell on the Cinema Rex in Antwerp killing 567 people .The cinema was 3,1 km away from the port of Antwerp .
3,5 km against 3,1 km .
Other V2 s ended up more than 8 km from Antwerp .
The port of Odesa is a legitimate military target and the misfortune of the cathedral was that it was very close to the port .

 

[MontyB]

If the Russian precision weapons are unable to make the Ukrainian air bases inoperable, how could they be able to destroy Ukrainian cultural sites ?
The attack was directed ( following Reuters ) on the port of Odesa and the distance between the port and the cathedral is 3,5 km .
No wonder that the cathedral was hurt .
The missiles and drones from Russia AND Ukraine are not much preciser than the allied and German bombers from WW2 ,or the German V1 and V2 .
In December 1944 a German V2 fell on the Cinema Rex in Antwerp killing 567 people .The cinema was 3,1 km away from the port of Antwerp .
3,5 km against 3,1 km .
Other V2 s ended up more than 8 km from Antwerp .
The port of Odesa is a legitimate military target and the misfortune of the cathedral was that it was very close to the port .

There is an alternative and that is the missile hit its target, given that the Russians drone on about how great every weapon they produce is I find it impossible to believe that they can't get within 4000m of its intended target especially since the same missiles were hitting port facilities 200m from the Romanian border.
The conclusion is that the Russians were either reckless enough to risk war with NATO by firing a missile who's level of accuracy is plus or minus 4000m at targets 200m from another country or that they deliberately targeted the cathedral, neither is a win for Russia.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

There is another possibility. It might be indirectly the Ukrainians fault why the Russian seem to hit civilian targets. The Ukrainian air defenses hit the missile or drone on its way to the intended target, but crash somewhere in the urban area. However, that can not explain all attacks on civilian targets. The Russians are wasting military resources on non military targets, it makes the Ukrainians angry and more unified and it doesn't reduce the Ukrainian armed forces capability

 

[lljadw]

There is another possibility. It might be indirectly the Ukrainians fault why the Russian seem to hit civilian targets. The Ukrainian air defenses hit the missile or drone on its way to the intended target, but crash somewhere in the urban area. However, that can not explain all attacks on civilian targets. The Russians are wasting military resources on non military targets, it makes the Ukrainians angry and more unified and it doesn't reduce the Ukrainian armed forces capability

1 If a civilian target is hit, that does not prove that some one on Russian side ordered to attack it .
2 How many civilian ''targets '' have been ''attacked '' ?
3 on 12 July of this year,a Western media reported ( with as source the Ukrainian general staff ) that since the start of the war the Russians had ''lost'',''committed '' 3726 drones ,some 55 a week .
What was the target of these drones and how many of these targets were hit and how many were civilian sites ?
The only thing we can conclude is that the percentage of targets that were hit was almost insignificant .
4 Is it better on Ukrainian side ?
No .
On 22 May this year, Forbes said that Ukraine was now'' losing''', ''committing '' some 10000 drones a month ,2500 a week.( Source : RUSI : British military think tank )
If this figure is correct ( and I am sceptical ) ,that means that the percentage of targets that were hit by these drones is totally insignificant and that is saying a lot about the claims of our media about the precision of these drones .
And that is proving that drones are not more precise than the V1 and V2 from WW2 .
It also debunks the Hollywood stories of men,women and transgenders who,sitting away thousands of km ,before a PC ,are winning the war without killing civilians .
5 Kyiv is more than 1300 km away from Moscow , I have not found the distance from Odesa to the Russian border but would a guess of 800 km be wrong ?
If you attack a target that is 800 km away,here the port of Odesa ,what is the chance of hitting it ? And the port of Odesa is much bigger than the cathedral . How many drones have hit the port ?
6 What have been the results of the drone attacks on the port ? Is the port now no longer operating ?
7 If the Ukrainian drones fail to hit the Russian military HQ in Moscow, why should the Russian drones be able to hit the cathedral of Odesa intentionally ?
8 In October last year several Ukrainian cities were attacked by dozens of Russian drones ;the result was 5 dead Ukrainian civilians .That was the result of an attack by ''precise '' weapons . Last week an attack by 36 drones on the port of Odesa resulted in one wounded civilian and some unspecified damage on the port infrastructure . That was the result of an attack by ''precise '' weapons .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Russia has wasted resources on non military targets aka civilian targets and btw, there are several different kinds of drones and missiles. While attacking these targets, they don't attack and reduce the Ukrainian armed forces capability to conduct military operations.