Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

MontyB said:
Not really in the mood for these cyclic arguments so moving on...

I am struggling to buy the story that Ukraine sent a couple of small low yield drones to the Kremlin at 2am to kill Putin, even had they hit nearby it is doubtful they would have done much damage.
My guess is Russia is planning either an internal crackdown on dissent (as the drones were too small to have flown from Ukraine and most likely were launched nearby) or looking to justify attacks on Ukrainian civilian centres.

https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05...t/?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral
Click to expand...
Seems another false flag op. Hundreds/thousands of missiles launched into Ukrainian cities & he acts upset about this...
 
George said:
Seems another false flag op. Hundreds/thousands of missiles launched into Ukrainian cities & he acts upset about this...
Click to expand...

It is a pretty poor cover story they have concocted given that most News agencies knew Putin wasn't there I am relatively sure Ukrainian intelligence also knew.
The drones used were slow moving and too small to do any real damage given the rather anemic flash and puff of smoke it generated.
The target also seemed to be the Russian parliament and not the Kremlin itself.
If they were genuinely out to cause chaos the May day parades are what a week away the place would be swarming with Russian bigwigs surely that would have been a better target, as it is the explosion didn't even phase the two people on the roof where it went off.
 
I can think of three different explanations for who's behind the drone "attacks" in Moscow. Ukrainians did it from within Moscow, Russian opposition did it, or a false flag
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I can think of three different explanations for who's behind the drone "attacks" in Moscow. Ukrainians did it from within Moscow, Russian opposition did it, or a false flag
Click to expand...

Ok but if they wanted to kill Putin why would you use small drones at 2 in the morning.
If I was doing it and all I had was a low yield delivery system I would wait a few days and hit the victory Day parade when you know exactly where he is going to be.

And what were the two guys doing on the roof at that time and why did they stay there, I know the last place I would be standing while things were exploding is on the roof of the building being targeted.

There is nothing about the "attack" that makes sense short of:
A. A false flag attack.
B. A symbolic opposition attack.
 
MontyB said:
Ok but if they wanted to kill Putin why would you use small drones at 2 in the morning.
If I was doing it and all I had was a low yield delivery system I would wait a few days and hit the victory Day parade when you know exactly where he is going to be.

And what were the two guys doing on the roof at that time and why did they stay there, I know the last place I would be standing while things were exploding is on the roof of the building being targeted.

There is nothing about the "attack" that makes sense short of:
A. A false flag attack.
B. A symbolic opposition attack.
Click to expand...

I don't think this was an attempt to kill Putin, it was a symbolic gesture and maybe to tell the Russians "We can hit you" or a false flag thing

I am more intrigued by what the two Russians did on that roof. A vodka break during the night?
 
We can speculate about where the Ukrainians will launch their spring/summer offensive, if they commence any.

I think they will try to cut off the supply lines between Crimea and Donbass. The offensive will be against Melitopol from from Zaporizhzhia and from Kherson. Maybe another main attack can commence along the east banks of the river Dnipro to cut off Crimea from the rest of the occupied Ukraine. Lighter Ukrainian forces have already crossed the river and they will launch probing attacks to lock the Russian forces where they are.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
We can speculate about where the Ukrainians will launch their spring/summer offensive, if they commence any.

I think they will try to cut off the supply lines between Crimea and Donbass. The offensive will be against Melitopol from from Zaporizhzhia and from Kherson. Maybe another main attack can commence along the east banks of the river Dnipro to cut off Crimea from the rest of the occupied Ukraine. Lighter Ukrainian forces have already crossed the river and they will launch probing attacks to lock the Russian forces where they are.
Click to expand...

The easier option may be to go through Bakhmut, they have done the work softening up the Russians and most of the fortifications have been destroyed.
 
MontyB said:
The easier option may be to go through Bakhmut, they have done the work softening up the Russians and most of the fortifications have been destroyed.
Click to expand...

The Russians have suffered heavy casualties in and around Bakhmut, but I doubt it is suitable for a major offensive, but I think Bakhmut can be used as secondary offensives to keep Russian forces in the area so they cannot be deployed to other sectors. Although, it might work if the Ukrainians are able to reduce the Russian logistics to a degree their defenses are unsustainable.
 
MontyB said:
Ok but if they wanted to kill Putin why would you use small drones at 2 in the morning.
If I was doing it and all I had was a low yield delivery system I would wait a few days and hit the victory Day parade when you know exactly where he is going to be.

And what were the two guys doing on the roof at that time and why did they stay there, I know the last place I would be standing while things were exploding is on the roof of the building being targeted.

There is nothing about the "attack" that makes sense short of:
A. A false flag attack.
B. A symbolic opposition attack.
Click to expand...

Maybe these two guys were guards and maybe it was too dangerous to leave the roof .
C is also possible : a symbolic Ukrainian attack .
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Russians have suffered heavy casualties in and around Bakhmut, but I doubt it is suitable for a major offensive, but I think Bakhmut can be used as secondary offensives to keep Russian forces in the area so they cannot be deployed to other sectors. Although, it might work if the Ukrainians are able to reduce the Russian logistics to a degree their defenses are unsustainable.
Click to expand...

Yeah I am not sure what their options are, south is the most logical yet it has been heavily telegraphed and the Russians have built defences in depth there but it is further from Russian supply lines, north seems an easier option but is closer to Russian supply hubs.

lljadw said:
Maybe these two guys were guards and maybe it was too dangerous to leave the roof .
C is also possible : a symbolic Ukrainian attack .
Click to expand...

I can't see the Ukrainians launching a "symbolic" strike in the middle of the night with the wrong equipment for the job knowing it would open them up to retaliatory strikes when a week later they would have the perfect time and at least get something for their efforts.
I really can't see Ukraine being involved as none of it makes much sense, these were small drones that would have struggled to get from the Ukrainian border to Moscow (about 4-5 hours plus for those drones) in peace time, they lacked any real explosive power and attacked at the moment they would do the least damage.

That said here is another view point:
False Flag?


Personally I believe the chances of it being a Ukrainian attack are on about the same level as Wagner group pulling out of Bakhmut because they can't get ammunition, almost none at all.
 
Last edited:
Maybe north of Bakhmut is a good option for an offensive. The city Kerminia is a logistical hub. But the Ukrainians need the cross a river first
 
MontyB said:
Ok but if they wanted to kill Putin why would you use small drones at 2 in the morning.
If I was doing it and all I had was a low yield delivery system I would wait a few days and hit the victory Day parade when you know exactly where he is going to be.

And what were the two guys doing on the roof at that time and why did they stay there, I know the last place I would be standing while things were exploding is on the roof of the building being targeted.

There is nothing about the "attack" that makes sense short of:
A. A false flag attack.
B. A symbolic opposition attack.
Click to expand...
There is no proof that it was an attempt to kill Putin and an attack on Victory Day parade is very unlikely, as the security precautions would then be very strong even without the ''attack ''with two drones .
It could be a warning to Putin : we can get you when and where we want .
 
lljadw said:
There is no proof that it was an attempt to kill Putin and an attack on Victory Day parade is very unlikely, as the security precautions would then be very strong even without the ''attack ''with two drones .
It could be a warning to Putin : we can get you when and where we want .
Click to expand...

That is largely my point, I don't believe it was an attack by the Ukrainians at all which really leaves two options:
A. A false flag operation.
B. A Russian opposition attack.

It is pretty clear that it wasn't an assassination attempt as it is unlikely he was hanging around the office at 2 in the morning and the weapons chosen were two small.
 
MontyB said:
Seems Russian propaganda is now verging on the ridiculous...

https://www.sentinelsource.com/news...ml?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral

I am pretty confident that had the US launched the attack the Kremlin would be a smoking hole in the ground by now.
Click to expand...

And so would be Washington,London, Paris ,etc ,etc and hundreds of millions would be dead .
We are talking about an attack with two drones,and such an attack can not transform the Kremlin in a smoking hole in the ground .
There is no proof that Washington directed the drone attack, and there is a big difference between directing and launching an attack.
But there is also no proof that Washington was unaware of the attack,otherwise some one with some intelligence ( if there are such people in Washington ) would have ordered Ukraine to stop the attack .
And, it should be expected by intelligent people (thus not people from DC )that Russia would try to implicate the US in the attack (US media tried to implicate the Soviets in the murder of JFK ),if not the Russians should be forced to demonstrate that Ukraine acted independently and that they are not the satellites of DC.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It can be the beginning of a pincer movement to trap the Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
Click to expand...

I think it is in the wrong place for that, this only looks capable of cutting the western most tips of the Russian pincers.
I have often wondered whether a single drive south along the Luhansk border wouldn't be effective.
 
It now transpires that South Africa is supplying Russia with small arms ammunition. any aid given to the ANC should be stopped, kick the buggers out of the Commonwealth as well as impose sanctions.

While Russia denies that Ukraine managed to completely destroy one of its warships, there's no doubt that Moscow is shouldering heavy damages.

Over the past few days, Ukrainian forces have made gains around the embattled Donbas city of Bakhmut, which Moscow has spent the past few months trying to seize. Kyiv is expected to launch a major counter-offensive in the coming months, although President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he needs "a bit more time" for the necessary equipment to arrive.

Russia Loses 27 Artillery Systems, 12 APVs and 6 Tanks in a Day: Ukraine.The claims were made on social media as part of a daily update released on Saturday.

At the rate Putin is losing kit and personnel, surely he cannot keep this up for much longer.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top