Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

I3BrigPvSk said:
Can you share them, please? You are probably right, it all began on the bridge and not under it. Because if it began under it, how could it reach the railroad section of it and ignite the train?

Anyway, the bridge suffered some damage. Either the Ukrainians did it or a drunk Russian
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There is a really large splash under the bridge just before the explosion

https://twitter.com/6ixworldnews/st...-bridge-seconds-before-explosion-6134215.html

https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/wa...-bridge-seconds-before-explosion-6134215.html

I am wondering about a missile strike.
 
MontyB said:
There is a really large splash under the bridge just before the explosion

https://twitter.com/6ixworldnews/st...-bridge-seconds-before-explosion-6134215.html

https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/wa...-bridge-seconds-before-explosion-6134215.html

I am wondering about a missile strike.
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A low flying missile wouldn't be detected by the air defense systems around the bridge so it makes sense. The Russian navy would have detected it if the navy had any ships around the bridge.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
A low flying missile wouldn't be detected by the air defense systems around the bridge so it makes sense. The Russian navy would have detected it if the navy had any ships around the bridge.
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Assuming of course that it wasn't the Russian Navy that fired it, given the positioning of bridges and the direction of the wave it would have had to come from the north which discounts anything Ukraine has.
I am not buying the USV idea as they are too small to carry enough explosive, I don't buy the truck bomb as it is unlikely to have damaged the road deck as badly as it did while still damaging the rail lines above and to the side.

Just been sent a reasonable breakdown of the event from a civil engineering point of view..

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...caused-multiple-spans-to-collapse-11-10-2022/
 
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MontyB said:
Assuming of course that it wasn't the Russian Navy that fired it, given the positioning of bridges and the direction of the wave it would have had to come from the north which discounts anything Ukraine has.
I am not buying the USV idea as they are too small to carry enough explosive, I don't buy the truck bomb as it is unlikely to have damaged the road deck as badly as it did while still damaging the rail lines above and to the side.

Just been sent a reasonable breakdown of the event from a civil engineering point of view..

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...caused-multiple-spans-to-collapse-11-10-2022/
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The movement/waves beneath the bridge indicate something was there, but what? I begin to think about a submergible drone of some sort. The Russian would have seen something on the surface or in the air. It happened when it was dark so that may explain why they didn't see anything, but they must have radars surveilling the waters around the bridge. An electric submerged drone is pretty silent so the Russian sonars may not have heard it approaching the bridge.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The movement/waves beneath the bridge indicate something was there, but what? I begin to think about a submergible drone of some sort. The Russian would have seen something on the surface or in the air. It happened when it was dark so that may explain why they didn't see anything, but they must have radars surveilling the waters around the bridge. An electric submerged drone is pretty silent so the Russian sonars may not have heard it approaching the bridge.
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The problem is that Ukraine doesn't have anything capable of this.
 
MontyB said:
The problem is that Ukraine doesn't have anything capable of this.
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But NATO countries have things like that and it is a possibility the US or the UK have given them submergible drones. Let us assume the Ukrainians used one now. They waited a long time to do it so it is not farfetched to assume they needed some training to use it before they attacked the bridge
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
T-62s and BMP1s. Now old howitzers. Will we see the old T34 before Christmas? When the Russian deploy this old stuff makes me think. How severe are their casualties?
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Seems they are refurbishing 800 T-62s, not sure how many they have in storage but I guess the T-55 will be up next.
On a more interesting note there are rumours that the T-14 Armata is making an appearance in Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ntage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2...-main-battle-tank-deployed-in-ukraine-source/
 
MontyB said:
Seems they are refurbishing 800 T-62s, not sure how many they have in storage but I guess the T-55 will be up next.
On a more interesting note there are rumours that the T-14 Armata is making an appearance in Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ntage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2...-main-battle-tank-deployed-in-ukraine-source/
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Have the Russians the crews for 800 T-62 and has their infantry /artillery the experience/knowledge to cooperate with/to support these tanks ?
 
lljadw said:
Have the Russians the crews for 800 T-62 and has their infantry /artillery the experience/knowledge to cooperate with/to support these tanks ?
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The answer to that is both yes and no.
They can press gang and hoodwink enough of their population to fill 800 tanks after all it is only 3200 people and some of them will have had experience in something with an engine which seems to make them eminently qualified in Russian military eyes hell friends had a 1980 Lada Niva and it performed in almost every way like tank until it fell apart.

So yes they can crew 800 tanks but no they can't crew 800 tanks with qualified and experienced crews so 801 ATGMs pretty much solves the problem, 50% success rate on the missiles and 400 abandoned and broken down tanks thanks to quality Russian vodka fuelled workmanship.

George said:
Undersea drones. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=ec238a6140ae4d0c84212c9792f1af90
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I think this is the most likely point of the explosion, if you look at the first picture in that link at the second pile from the left they look out of alignment, the other four sets of piles look fine, while I suspect a seaborne attack due to the timing of having a fuel train overhead they is also a possibility of it being a sea mine as plenty of those have been set loose in the Black Sea.

One of the reasons I doubt a US supplied USV is that by now the Russians would have recovered parts and blamed the US which indicates they don't have any.
 
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MontyB said:
The answer to that is both yes and no.
They can press gang and hoodwink enough of their population to fill 800 tanks after all it is only 3200 people and some of them will have had experience in something with an engine which seems to make them eminently qualified in Russian military eyes hell friends had a 1980 Lada Niva and it performed in almost every way like tank until it fell apart.

So yes they can crew 800 tanks but no they can't crew 800 tanks with qualified and experienced crews so 801 ATGMs pretty much solves the problem, 50% success rate on the missiles and 400 abandoned and broken down tanks thanks to quality Russian vodka fuelled workmanship.



I think this is the most likely point of the explosion, if you look at the first picture in that link at the second pile from the left they look out of alignment, the other four sets of piles look fine, while I suspect a seaborne attack due to the timing of having a fuel train overhead they is also a possibility of it being a sea mine as plenty of those have been set loose in the Black Sea.

One of the reasons I doubt a US supplied USV is that by now the Russians would have recovered parts and blamed the US which indicates they don't have any.
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I am not equally convinced, I cannot rule it out the Ukrainians didn't get USVs from a NATO country. The Russians would have whined, complained, and probably having a tantrum about it, but not going to war with NATO because of it. Russia might have used the information about it in the internal propaganda.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I am not equally convinced, I cannot rule it out the Ukrainians didn't get USVs from a NATO country. The Russians would have whined, complained, and probably having a tantrum about it, but not going to war with NATO because of it. Russia might have used the information about it in the internal propaganda.
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No but had they had any evidence of a western supplied weapon being involved in the attack they would be screaming and threatening the world.
The fact that they aren't means they have nothing.
 
We can agree on; something went boom and damaged the bridge.

Russia is firing a lot missiles and drones at the Ukrainians right now. It will have a limited effect on the Russian war effort.

Sweden has a conservative government now and we will probably provide Ukraine with our new howitzer, Archer.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
We can agree on; something went boom and damaged the bridge.

Russia is firing a lot missiles and drones at the Ukrainians right now. It will have a limited effect on the Russian war effort.

Sweden has a conservative government now and we will probably provide Ukraine with our new howitzer, Archer.
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What is it about dictators and their desire to terrorise civilians instead of attacking military targets while the war on the ground turns against them.
How many V1 and V2s were wasted on cities when attacking the invasion ports may have actually slowed the Allies up.
 
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