Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

George said:
How far is Putin going to go?
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My personal opinion is that Putin has pretty much gone as far as he can go, he has painted himself into a corner where his military can not go forward without heavy casualties in both Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians which will not play well at home or abroad.

The unfortunate thing is that he cant stop now either as that would more than likely be both political and physical suicide.

Pretty much every aspect of this operation has been a total failure, his troops look confused, inept and embarrassed especially when being berated or laughed at by elderly Ukrainians, on a strategic level his economy is on the verge of collapse, militarily they have grossly underestimated the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian military along with the resilience and desire of its population to not want to be Russian.

Politically, NATO and the EU are more united now than ever and somehow he has managed to light a fuse under the Germans, a friend in Germany says there is a joke going around that Putin and Zelensky have swapped roles, Zelensky started out a clown and became a world leader and Putin started out a world leader and has become a clown.

So how far will Putin go, my best guess is that he has to achieve a point where he can declare his objectives complete and go home and I suspect that will be with the fall of Kyiv and Kharkiv and the "accidental and unforeseen" death of Zelensky, to leave short of that will a Ukrainian victory and probably mean a polonium pill in his dinner.

To some degree, Ukraine's success may now be acting against it and while it would be a bitter pill for them to swallow it may be better if they offered Russia something (Probably Crimea) to end it as you have a situation where you have an inept military that cant lose fighting an efficient military that can't win and the result will be more casualties for everyone.
 
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I have been thinking about one way out of this is for the Ukrainians to give up the demands of Crimea and the Donbas. Ukraine cannot get these two regions back anyway, unless Russia gives them back, but that is highly unlikely.

The rest of Ukraine will maybe join EU and NATO and Russia can only blame itself for it.
Because Russia has achieved with making EU and NATO united. Finland and Sweden have never been so close to join NATO as well, only because of what Russia is doing
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I have been thinking about one way out of this is for the Ukrainians to give up the demands of Crimea and the Donbas. Ukraine cannot get these two regions back anyway, unless Russia gives them back, but that is highly unlikely.

The rest of Ukraine will maybe join EU and NATO and Russia can only blame itself for it.
Because Russia has achieved with making EU and NATO united. Finland and Sweden have never been so close to join NATO as well, only because of what Russia is doing
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Yes, I saw polls yesterday showing that pro-NATO elements of both Sweden and Finland are now in the majority, so this appears to have been a major miscalculation on Russia's part.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I have been thinking about one way out of this is for the Ukrainians to give up the demands of Crimea and the Donbas. Ukraine cannot get these two regions back anyway, unless Russia gives them back, but that is highly unlikely.

The rest of Ukraine will maybe join EU and NATO and Russia can only blame itself for it.
Because Russia has achieved with making EU and NATO united. Finland and Sweden have never been so close to join NATO as well, only because of what Russia is doing
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Watching Lavrov today and he said something interesting, he said that Crimea was not negotiable but he never mentioned the other conflict areas which makes me wonder whether that is the Russian goal in all this and the key to ending it.
 
MontyB said:
Watching Lavrov today and he said something interesting, he said that Crimea was not negotiable but he never mentioned the other conflict areas which makes me wonder whether that is the Russian goal in all this and the key to ending it.
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As you said earlier and I agree with what you said. Putin has painted himself into a corner and the Donbas can be his only way out without admitting a defeat. The Ukrainians have my respect and they are getting more and more military aid. I haven't check yet, but anti-tank missiles can make an amphibious assault a costly affair.

Sweden might give the Ukrainians the NLAW missiles and the hellfire missiles; we use the latter as a coastal defense weapon.

I wonder if the west provides Ukraine with heavier weapons to counter the Russian artillery
 
There are reports of Russia forcing neutral cargo ships to act as shields in the Black Sea. Speculation at the beginning was Putin might be just wanting a solid land link from The Crimea to the Donbas if he has just limited plans. Might be a way out, but then the Russians haven't had much regard for lives during a War.
 
There is one aspect of the war. I was thinking this war might get the Chinese to move against Taiwan, but they have seen the worlds reaction to this war and that might get them to think twice before attacking Taiwan

The Chinese trade with Europe/the US might be more important for the Chinese than their trade with Russia is.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
There is one aspect of the war. I was thinking this war might get the Chinese to move against Taiwan, but they have seen the worlds reaction to this war and that might get them to think twice before attacking Taiwan

The Chinese trade with Europe/the US might be more important for the Chinese than their trade with Russia is.
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I have pointed out a couple of times that I have no doubt China is watching this closely so I have been very happy with the Wests response and unity to date, I doubt the Chinese economy could survive the fallout of an attack on Taiwan.
 
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I3BrigPvSk said:
There is one aspect of the war. I was thinking this war might get the Chinese to move against Taiwan, but they have seen the worlds reaction to this war and that might get them to think twice before attacking Taiwan

The Chinese trade with Europe/the US might be more important for the Chinese than their trade with Russia is.
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I must admit I did wonder if the Chinese would attack Taiwan, it would split the Western Allies, even worse would be if North Korea attacked South Korea at the same time.
 
It is realistic to assume it has been nukes in Japan for a very long time. These nukes have been onboard US ships stationed in Japan.
 
 
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