Germany

[MontyB]

You can't blame the Germans for refusing to give Poland and Ukraine billions of USD (to give weapons is to give money ) as Germany has no obligations to help Ukraine .
Besides : one third ( = THIRTY -THREE per cent ) of the present active female German workers will later have to survive on a monthly pension of less than 1000 Euro and a big part of the German population is living without heating as they have no money to warm themselves .
Try to explain to these people, these ELECTORS that they must give billions to Poland and Ukraine .
Why do you think that the AfD is on 3 % of the SPD in the election forecasts ?
The situation in France is not better than in Germany and France also is unwilling to give its money .

The problem is not whether Germany can afford to help Ukraine or not, that is entirely up to them.
The problem is that they have been actively preventing those who do want to give these weapons to Ukraine from doing so.
Essentially, if Germany can't afford to send their L2s to Ukraine that is fine but they shouldn't stop Poland, Canada or anyone else from sending theirs.

 

[lljadw]

The problem is not whether Germany can afford to help Ukraine or not, that is entirely up to them.
The problem is that they have been actively preventing those who do want to give these weapons to Ukraine from doing so.
Essentially, if Germany can't afford to send their L2s to Ukraine that is fine but they shouldn't stop Poland, Canada or anyone else from sending theirs.

The Polish,Canadian ,... Leos are leased from Germany and are thus the legal propriety of Germany and if Germany will say that it has no objection to the transfer of these Leos to Ukraine, it is Germany that will suffer economically, not Poland or Canada oland and Canada are not depending on Russian coal,gas and oil .

 

[MontyB]

The Polish,Canadian ,... Leos are leased from Germany and are thus the legal propriety of Germany and if Germany will say that it has no objection to the transfer of these Leos to Ukraine, it is Germany that will suffer economically, not Poland or Canada oland and Canada are not depending on Russian coal,gas and oil .

How is being held economic hostage by Russia doing Germany any good?
This is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog, people seem to forget that in as much as Germany needs coal, gas and oil for its economy, Russia needs to sell coal, gas and oil for its economy.

It isn't a one way process it is a symbiotic one, Russia seems to think it can call the shots but if it is hoping to make up the shortfall in selling to its allies China and India then it will be selling to them at discounted rates and I am pretty certain Iran won't be importing a lot, so it needs Europe economically more than Europe needs Russia.

 

[lljadw]

How is being held economic hostage by Russia doing Germany any good?
This is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog, people seem to forget that in as much as Germany needs coal, gas and oil for its economy, Russia needs to sell coal, gas and oil for its economy.

It isn't a one way process it is a symbiotic one, Russia seems to think it can call the shots but if it is hoping to make up the shortfall in selling to its allies China and India then it will be selling to them at discounted rates and I am pretty certain Iran won't be importing a lot, so it needs Europe economically more than Europe needs Russia.

CNN (and you know where CNN stands ) would disagree with you : It titled : Europe can't still live without Russian LNG exports .
One can discuss the question if Germany is being held economic hostage by Russia, but that does not solve the problem ;reality is that for several generations not only Germany,but the whole of Europe will need Russian LNG.
The reason is for a big part the fault of the European leaders who are banning nuclear energy .
Last year 316 Russian tankers entered Belgian ports unloading 12 million cubic meters of LNG and 9,2 million of oil products ,an increase of 28 % compared to 2021,for the whole of Europe the increase in 36 % .
Since 2019 the import of Russian LNG has quadrupled .
I think that outside Europe one has no notion of how much the inhabitants of Berlin, Vienna, Budapest are depending on Russian LNG,Russian gas,Russian coal and Russian oil .

 

[lljadw]

From Statista : European import of Russian LNG
October 2022 1,1 billion of cubic meters
September 2021 0,375 billion of cubic meters
For once CNN was not wrong

 

[MontyB]

CNN (and you know where CNN stands ) would disagree with you : It titled : Europe can't still live without Russian LNG exports .
One can discuss the question if Germany is being held economic hostage by Russia, but that does not solve the problem ;reality is that for several generations not only Germany,but the whole of Europe will need Russian LNG.
The reason is for a big part the fault of the European leaders who are banning nuclear energy .
Last year 316 Russian tankers entered Belgian ports unloading 12 million cubic meters of LNG and 9,2 million of oil products ,an increase of 28 % compared to 2021,for the whole of Europe the increase in 36 % .
Since 2019 the import of Russian LNG has quadrupled .
I think that outside Europe one has no notion of how much the inhabitants of Berlin, Vienna, Budapest are depending on Russian LNG,Russian gas,Russian coal and Russian oil .

I don't disagree with that but that dependency has to be broken and like all addictions it is the first period that is the hardest, this time next year far fewer will need Russian gas, coal and oil.

 

[lljadw]

I don't disagree with that but that dependency has to be broken and like all addictions it is the first period that is the hardest, this time next year far fewer will need Russian gas, coal and oil.

I would advise you to not tell this in a pub in Vienna, Berlin, Budapest,...
Besides: the question is not that this dependency has to be broken, but if it is possible to break it . And the answer is that this is very unlikely .
The gas of Qatar will not replace the gas of Russia .
And, is it better for the inhabitants of Vienna, Berlin, Budapest,.. to be dependent on Qatar than on Russia ?

 

[MontyB]

I would advise you to not tell this in a pub in Vienna, Berlin, Budapest,...
Besides: the question is not that this dependency has to be broken, but if it is possible to break it . And the answer is that this is very unlikely .
The gas of Qatar will not replace the gas of Russia .
And, is it better for the inhabitants of Vienna, Berlin, Budapest,.. to be dependent on Qatar than on Russia ?

Vienna, unlikely, Budapest, possibly, Berlin, happy to.

As for who's gas replaces Russian gas I don't think it really matters to anyone, hell even Ukraine has gas fields.

 

[lljadw]

Vienna, unlikely, Budapest, possibly, Berlin, happy to.

As for who's gas replaces Russian gas I don't think it really matters to anyone, hell even Ukraine has gas fields.

Europe is depending for its gas on Russian imports (some 40 % ) and this will not change,as no one can replace the Russian gas imports .
These imports started already in 1968 and nothing stopped them , not the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, not the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and no European politician demanded that these imports should stop .Thus, why should they stop now ? US is still importing Russian oil, why should Europe not import Russian gas ?
About Ukrainian gas :is Ukraine now exporting gas to Europe ,or did it before the invasion ?
Ukrainian gas production was only 66 % of its gas consumption,thus it had to import gas .

 

[lljadw]

Last year Russia exported still as much gas to Europe as did the US and it exported more LNG than in 2021 .
The reason is very simple :Europe can not survive without gas and US or the ME can not replace the Russian gas .

 

[MontyB]

Last year Russia exported still as much gas to Europe as did the US and it exported more LNG than in 2021 .
The reason is very simple :Europe can not survive without gas and US or the ME can not replace the Russian gas .

I am not sure even the Russians agree with you on this,

Novak, writing in the specialist journal "Energy Policy," also attributed the fall in exports to what he called the "sabotage" of the pipelines.

"Gas production in 2022 totaled 673.8 bcm. Exports decreased by 25.1% to 184.4 bcm," Novak said.

He said that while gas deliveries to Europe had dropped off sharply, those to new buyers, in particular China, were rising rapidly.

"The record amount of gas supplied per day by Russia through the Power of Siberia pipeline was beaten more than once," Novak said.

"As a result, gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia increased by 48% and reached a historical maximum of 15.4 bcm."

He also said that Russian oil exports had increased 7.6% in 2022 compared to a year earlier.

Novak said that going forward Russia was working to pivot its energy exports to countries that had not imposed sanctions on Moscow or criticized the Kremlin's offensive in Ukraine.

"Today we continue to seek and find new markets. This year, we plan to export more than 80% of oil exports and 75% oil products to friendly countries," Novak said.

Seems it isn't Europe buying Russian gas and oil but China and India at heavily discounted prices.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...s-sink-by-25-despite-rise-in-oil-sales-a80215

I assume that we aren't going to argue that the Moscow Times is pro-west and unreliable.

 

[lljadw]

I am not sure even the Russians agree with you on this,


Seems it isn't Europe buying Russian gas and oil but China and India at heavily discounted prices.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...s-sink-by-25-despite-rise-in-oil-sales-a80215

I assume that we aren't going to argue that the Moscow Times is pro-west and unreliable.

It is not Europe that is buying less Russian gas but Russia that is selling less gas to some parts of Europe .
And it is more than possible that the discounted prices Russia asks for its gas are still higher than the prices Russia got for its gas before the war ,because there is a strong increase of gas prices .
Less bcm of gas exports do not mean less revenue of gas exports .
That the gas exports decreased by 25 % does not mean that Russia got 25 % less money for gas exports .It is even possible that the revenues of gas exports did increase .

 

[lljadw]

From Energy Monitor :Volume of gas sold to Europe by Russia
5 September 2022 102 million cm
5 September 2021 356 million cm
Price
5 September 2022 85 million euro
5 September 2021 99 million Euro
On 5 September 2022 the Russian gas costed 0,8 Euro for 1 cm
On 5 September 2021 the Russian gas costed 0,28 Euro for 1 cm

 

[MontyB]

From Energy Monitor :Volume of gas sold to Europe by Russia
5 September 2022 102 million cm
5 September 2021 356 million cm
Price
5 September 2022 85 million euro
5 September 2021 99 million Euro
On 5 September 2022 the Russian gas costed 0,8 Euro for 1 cm
On 5 September 2021 the Russian gas costed 0,28 Euro for 1 cm

Some more light reading on the Russian economy from the Moscow Times...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...d-war-spending-falling-energy-revenues-a80159

 

[lljadw]

Some more light reading on the Russian economy from the Moscow Times...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023...d-war-spending-falling-energy-revenues-a80159

One word of caution : the Moscow Times is a western media ,directed by a Dutch journalist irk Sauer .
OTOH ,the same Dirk Sauer has in the past several times defended Putin .
That there is a big budget deficit for Russia is true, but such deficits happened also before the war and US have also a very budget deficit .

 

[MontyB]

One word of caution : the Moscow Times is a western media ,directed by a Dutch journalist irk Sauer .
OTOH ,the same Dirk Sauer has in the past several times defended Putin .
That there is a big budget deficit for Russia is true, but such deficits happened also before the war and US have also a very budget deficit .

I think this is a relatively open minded argument regarding the economic fallout of this war to date...

Economy after one year of war