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I am as stumped and confused as you are on the Russian campaign to date, nothing they are doing makes any sense.
Maybe lljadw is right in that for some reason the Russians thought they would be welcomed and that they genuinely thought the Ukrainian military were hopeless.

One aspect we haven't really discussed is the affect of western intelligence on Ukraine's operations, it is pretty obvious Russian forces can't sneeze without the west knowing about it.

Another set of images...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russia-tanks-ambushed-ukraine-forces-kyiv-war

And a confirmation of the previous link...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-s-commander-of-tank-regiment-was-killed-near-brovary/

They are still driving without any march discipline. I am struggling to understand what the Russians are thinking. Driving like that into an urban area. The standard procedure is to clear the area with the infantry before entering it with vehicles. The Russians performed much better during the war in Georgia, even though that war wasn't conducted well by the Russians.
 
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1 170000 men is not enough to defeat the Ukrainian army AND to occupy and pacify Ukraine . It is 10 western divisions to defeat,occupy and pacify a country of 40 million + people.
2 Putin has not more men ( total Russian manpower is 1 million ).
3 Even if he had more men,he could not use them, as the bigger the army means the slower the advance .
From all this,my guess is that the invasion was a repetition of the invasion of Afghanistan: they invaded Afghanistan with 25000 men,killed the local Quisling and replaced him by another one,hoping that this would be enough .
It wasn't .
Now,they tried to kill the ruler of Ukraine ,they failed and invaded with 170000 men ,hoping that these would be at the western borders of Ukraine in a week ,and that everything would occur without much casualties ( the less Ukrainian casualties the less Ukrainian opposition and the less whining by the Western media ):but they failed .
Why did they use these tactics ? Simply :because they knew that a full-scale war would fail and because they hoped that the only alternative ( a police action ) would succeed .
That's why I am still convinced that failure or success depended more on what the Ukrainians would and could do .
Three other questions are still avoided by our media ,who as usual,spread only propaganda .
1 WHY did the Russians invade Ukraine ?
2 WHY did the invasion happen at the end of February ,with the Rasputitza looming,
and not in December or January?
3 WHY took the Russian build-up so long ? Why took it weeks to concentrate 170000 men on Russia's western border ?

2
2

170000 well trained, equipped and supplied troops should have been more than enough especially when backed by a modern air force ten times the size of the opposition and probably the world's largest missile arsenal to carry out a "shock and awe" campaign against a much weaker opposition already bogged down in a war else where.
You are probably right in what they thought would happen but that is one hell of a gamble given that every day this goes on Ukraine gets stronger with reservists coming up and Russia gets weaker as its regular force is degraded and has to call in reservist's.

1. Is a good question and I guess it depends who's story you want to buy but I think any thought that Ukraine was going to be a threat to Russia is unlikely at best.

2. My guess is that Putin though it would be a quick 2-3 day campaign so the time of year didn't matter.

3. Well they were trying to pretend there wasn't going to be an invasion but I suspect that again Russia thought that intimidation could get them what they wanted without the need to invade.


They are still driving without any march discipline. I am struggling to understand what the Russians are thinking. Driving like that into an urban area. The standard procedure is to clear the area with the infantry before entering it with vehicles. The Russians performed much better during the war in Georgia, even though that war wasn't conducted well by the Russians.

Well I guess there was the war of the roses and war of the oranges, this one will go down as the war of the WTF.
 
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Other questions
1 When was taken the decision to start the war ? Before the build-up,during the build-up or after the build-up ?
What was the correlation between the decision and the build-up ?
2 Why did Putin forbid to commit conscripts, if he thought that it would be over in 2 days ? And why is he asking ( better : begging ) for '' volunteers'' from the Middle East ?
3 Are the informations about the use of Chechen units reliable , given the fighting between Chechen and Russians in the recent past ?
4 Eight years ago the first Ukrainian war started ( related to Euromaidan ) and the Russians stopped after the occupation of the Crimea and Ukrainian regions inhabited by ethnic Russians . Why did they no go further ? They had an excuse, reason in 2014 . Now they haven't one, or they do not use one .
5 What is now their aim ?
Annexation of Ukraine ?
Imposing a puppet government ?
Accepting Zelensky ,but forcing him to be more neutral, or to be more friendly ?
And, are these aims still realizable ?
And, what is the correlation between the military situation ,the political situation in and out Russia and he war aims ?
They were and still are silent about their war aims : maybe they are pragmatic enough to adapt their aims to their gains = the better the war is going, the bigger will be their aims. But still, they must have a minimum aim. What is it ?
6 The third week of the war has started and they are nowhere and there are no indications that Ukraine is collapsing or that it is asking for an end of the war .
And the big question is now : WHAT WILL DO THE RUSSIANS ?
Force a decision by using ABC weapons ?
Continue as they are doing today ?
Asking for a diplomatic solution ?
 
Other questions
1 When was taken the decision to start the war ? Before the build-up,during the build-up or after the build-up ?
What was the correlation between the decision and the build-up ?
2 Why did Putin forbid to commit conscripts, if he thought that it would be over in 2 days ? And why is he asking ( better : begging ) for '' volunteers'' from the Middle East ?
3 Are the informations about the use of Chechen units reliable , given the fighting between Chechen and Russians in the recent past ?
4 Eight years ago the first Ukrainian war started ( related to Euromaidan ) and the Russians stopped after the occupation of the Crimea and Ukrainian regions inhabited by ethnic Russians . Why did they no go further ? They had an excuse, reason in 2014 . Now they haven't one, or they do not use one .
5 What is now their aim ?
Annexation of Ukraine ?
Imposing a puppet government ?
Accepting Zelensky ,but forcing him to be more neutral, or to be more friendly ?
And, are these aims still realizable ?
And, what is the correlation between the military situation ,the political situation in and out Russia and he war aims ?
They were and still are silent about their war aims : maybe they are pragmatic enough to adapt their aims to their gains = the better the war is going, the bigger will be their aims. But still, they must have a minimum aim. What is it ?
6 The third week of the war has started and they are nowhere and there are no indications that Ukraine is collapsing or that it is asking for an end of the war .
And the big question is now : WHAT WILL DO THE RUSSIANS ?
Force a decision by using ABC weapons ?
Continue as they are doing today ?
Asking for a diplomatic solution ?

Well that is a lot of questions that would take a long time to respond to properly so I will give you this link which I think covers many of them...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine
 
Indeed, Monty. This is the war of WTF. Although, that makes me think we shall not view the Russians as being incompetent. Regardless the outcome of the war and regardless if the Russians decide to give Putin a new axxhole in the forehead. The Russian armed forces will change everything after this war.

The major thing they need to change is their command structure. Their chain of command is not flexible and I begin to think the West intelligence services provide the Ukrainians with where the Russian commanders are. If the Russians are losing their commanders, let say their battalion and/or regiment commanders. The company commanders will be "fxxked"

There are other major things the Russians need to change, the best thing that can do is to leave their neighbors alone
 
Indeed, Monty. This is the war of WTF. Although, that makes me think we shall not view the Russians as being incompetent. Regardless the outcome of the war and regardless if the Russians decide to give Putin a new axxhole in the forehead. The Russian armed forces will change everything after this war.

The major thing they need to change is their command structure. Their chain of command is not flexible and I begin to think the West intelligence services provide the Ukrainians with where the Russian commanders are. If the Russians are losing their commanders, let say their battalion and/or regiment commanders. The company commanders will be "fxxked"

There are other major things the Russians need to change, the best thing that can do is to leave their neighbors alone

I am not sure I agree that anything about Russia can change, sure Russia has a more modern lifestyle but it is still the same landowner/serf mentality it has had through history for all it's neon lights and education it is still a backward, superstitious and unproductive society that has to be led by strong and brutal leaders.
 
I wonder if Putin has sacked many of his high rank officers? Speaking of which, I have seen reports of killed high rank officers. The west intelligence may provide the Ukrainians with the information about their location.

Lavrov said; Russia is not invading Ukraine. Ok, so if Russia is not invading Ukraine, The Ukrainians can invite NATO for an exercise or the no-fly zone.
 
I wonder if Putin has sacked many of his high rank officers? Speaking of which, I have seen reports of killed high rank officers. The west intelligence may provide the Ukrainians with the information about their location.

Lavrov said; Russia is not invading Ukraine. Ok, so if Russia is not invading Ukraine, The Ukrainians can invite NATO for an exercise or the no-fly zone.

Seems like a number of people are getting the blame and the boot (probably a bullet as well) in Russia at the moment
https://uawire.org/Contents/Item/Display/28204

https://uawire.org/kyiv-8-russian-generals-fired-because-of-failed-invasion-of-ukraine

And still more WTF moments from the Russian front.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-asking-china-for-military-equipment-us-says-ahead-of-meeting/

By the end of this we will have Syrian mercenaries with Chinese equipment fighting Ukrainians and Putin denying Russia was ever there.
 
Russia is asking China for weapons and other things. I remember the article about the Russian are using cheap tires on their trucks, and that was one of the reasons for why the the Russian advance was slow. I wonder how the Russians will perform with Chinese weapons. Maybe a good way to save Ukrainian lives
 
Russia is asking China for weapons and other things. I remember the article about the Russian are using cheap tires on their trucks, and that was one of the reasons for why the the Russian advance was slow. I wonder how the Russians will perform with Chinese weapons. Maybe a good way to save Ukrainian lives

Yes given that they were blaming Chinese tyres for the breakdown of their advance I find it odd they suddenly want more material, I wonder what they could be after (other than their money back on shoddy tyres), it can't be aircraft as they haven't used what they already have, I assume it is trucks and APC's to replace losses.

You would have to be pretty brave to go to war in a Chinese AFV/MBT, if they are built to the QA standards as most other Chinese gear they will be built from tinfoil and chewing gum.
 
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Wars are serious and not a laughing matter, but the Russians almost make me smile and shake my head in disbelief.

I guess the Russia asks China for fuel trucks. There are reports about the Russians are lacking fuel trucks.

Where are we with the Polish fighter jets? I bet they are or will be in Ukraine pretty soon. I heard the Ukrainians get (maybe) helicopters from the former Warsaw pact countries. A few MI-24 Hind can ruin anybody's day
 
Wars are serious and not a laughing matter, but the Russians almost make me smile and shake my head in disbelief.

I guess the Russia asks China for fuel trucks. There are reports about the Russians are lacking fuel trucks.

Where are we with the Polish fighter jets? I bet they are or will be in Ukraine pretty soon. I heard the Ukrainians get (maybe) helicopters from the former Warsaw pact countries. A few MI-24 Hind can ruin anybody's day

Officially the jets are not going to be transferred apparently that is a step to far but who knows 27 of them might accidentally land at the wrong airbase and get impounded.
Russian logistics are clearly a weak point that can be exploited but I think it is time Ukraine took the war to Russia and launched UAV strikes on rail infrastructure in southern Russia as that is apparently the Russian militaries primary transport method.
If Ukraine can disrupt supplies at their source it will magnify supply issues right through the system.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/10/commander-us-forces-europe-defends-decision-block-/
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Polish/Slovak/Czech airplanes end up in Ukraine.

I hope nobody ask the Poles where their MIG's and SU's are. It can be awkward when the Poles don't know where they are and they planes seem to have vanished.

The Russian air force is launching their weapons from outside the Ukrainian air space. How would the Russians react if the begin losing their aircrafts over Russia?

I have been thinking a lot about the Ukrainian air defense. They receive Stingers from NATO and I read the British is providing with the Starstreak system. Are they getting more advanced air defense systems too?


I have been looking at this video. It seems to be a NLAW hitting the Russian tank. I served in an anti-tank unit and I would never be that close to enemy tanks when firing at them with any anti-tank weapon.

Just click continue when you see the warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRcmJTAouM
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Polish/Slovak/Czech airplanes end up in Ukraine.

I hope nobody ask the Poles where their MIG's and SU's are. It can be awkward when the Poles don't know where they are and they planes seem to have vanished.

The Russian air force is launching their weapons from outside the Ukrainian air space. How would the Russians react if the begin losing their aircrafts over Russia?

I have been thinking a lot about the Ukrainian air defense. They receive Stingers from NATO and I read the British is providing with the Starstreak system. Are they getting more advanced air defense systems too?


I have been looking at this video. It seems to be a NLAW hitting the Russian tank. I served in an anti-tank unit and I would never be that close to enemy tanks when firing at them with any anti-tank weapon.

Just click continue when you see the warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRcmJTAouM

The problem is that both the stinger and starstreak are short range, what they really need is something with more range.
They do have Buk systems and the older Strella but short of borrowing left over Russian gear I doubt they will be getting many replacements for them.

I imagine the ranging issues shown in that video could be caused by inexperienced users, for a lot of these guys it has been a pretty quick trip from uni student to combat veteran.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Polish/Slovak/Czech airplanes end up in Ukraine.

I hope nobody ask the Poles where their MIG's and SU's are. It can be awkward when the Poles don't know where they are and they planes seem to have vanished.

The Russian air force is launching their weapons from outside the Ukrainian air space. How would the Russians react if the begin losing their aircrafts over Russia?

I have been thinking a lot about the Ukrainian air defense. They receive Stingers from NATO and I read the British is providing with the Starstreak system. Are they getting more advanced air defense systems too?


I have been looking at this video. It seems to be a NLAW hitting the Russian tank. I served in an anti-tank unit and I would never be that close to enemy tanks when firing at them with any anti-tank weapon.

Just click continue when you see the warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRcmJTAouM

The anti weapons we had in an infantry regiment in the late 1970's was the Land Rover towed 120 Mobat, 84 Karl Gustave and the 66. We were trained to get within 500 meters with the 84 and 300 meters with the 66, then kiss our bums goodbye.:neutral:

If the Russians are asking for help with equipment from the Chinese, what sh!te state is their equipment in?.

In South Africa I use to buy Chinese firearms for stock in my gun shop, the quality of the weapons depended on the factory that built them. The AK47's were quite good as was the 45 ACP Colt 1911 copy, while the 9mm Para Tokarev copies were atrocious..
 
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We could set up our light AT-weapons as a trap in a similar way as how Claymore-mines work and fire them from a distance. I begin to think the Ukrainians are doing something similar. The video shows Russian soldiers, but I can't see any movements at the Ukrainian fire position.

Our ambushes lasted for a few seconds, fire one or two rounds with AT weapons at two or three vehicles and then regroup fast as possible. To be that close to the targets was not an option. Another MO was to try to hit the mechanized infantry and the command vehicles first (if we couldn't wait and hit their supplies) Tanks without infantry are in a big trouble, especially in urban terrain.
 
The anti weapons we had in an infantry regiment in the late 1970's was the Land Rover towed 120 Mobat, 84 Karl Gustave and the 66. We were trained to get within 500 meters with the 84 and 300 meters with the 66, then kiss our bums goodbye.:neutral:

If the Russians are asking for help with equipment from the Chinese, what sh!te state is their equipment in?.

In South Africa I use to buy Chinese firearms for stock in my gun shop, the quality of the weapons depended on the factory that built them. The AK47's were quite good as was the 45 ACP Colt 1911 copy, while the 9mm Para Tokarev copies were atrocious..

My brother in law had a Chinese Type-56 and it was terrible, the front sights fell off and if you held it wrong the magazine fell out, it was loud and jumped like a kangaroo, I had a Russian AK at the same time and it was excellent, my only complaint was that it weighed a ton about the same as the L1A1 but without the accuracy.

My understanding is that China has agreed to supply food but as yet I haven't seen any concrete requests for equipment, I imagine ammunition, communications equipment and logistics vehicles would be what Russia needs most.
 
Is it beneficial for China to help Russia? Russia needs China more than what China needs Russia. China gets oil and natural gas from Russia, but at the same time, China's trade with Europe and the US is bigger than their trade with Russia.

The rumor about the Chinese tires doesn't sound good if the Russians begin to get Chinese weapons.
 
Is it beneficial for China to help Russia? Russia needs China more than what China needs Russia. China gets oil and natural gas from Russia, but at the same time, China's trade with Europe and the US is bigger than their trade with Russia.

The rumor about the Chinese tires doesn't sound good if the Russians begin to get Chinese weapons.

Yes but if you have an army relegated to using open communications and smoke signals then an off the shelf Chinese system may be a quick fix, I doubt they need weapons but they may need ammunition and trucks to replace losses.
I also suspect Russia may be starting to run low on smart munitions.
 
Yes but if you have an army relegated to using open communications and smoke signals then an off the shelf Chinese system may be a quick fix, I doubt they need weapons but they may need ammunition and trucks to replace losses.
I also suspect Russia may be starting to run low on smart munitions.

This is quite strange if it's true. I heard the Russians are using civilian GPS for navigation and for hitting targets. That might explain why they are missing their targets
 
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