Situation in A'Stan Deteriorating - Adm Mullen

A Can of Man

A Can of Man

Je suis aware
http://www.military.com/news/article/mullen-afghan-situation-deteriorating.html

This is just one of those wars that take a LONG time to fight and win. People should not be mistaken, this war in Afghanistan, in my opinion, is a much more difficult war than in Iraq because of the reconstruction effort. Iraqis know how to be a country. The Afghans do not.
As for Senator McCain's hope that the sinking public opinion can be reversed... it'll be very very difficult. I just wonder if the public has the patience and the stomach to let its military fight any kind of serious enemy that has more determination than to just roll over and give up after a year or two.
I think people may be too spoiled from the 20 minute TV series where any situation, no matter how complex, could be resolved in one evening.
The real world takes a very, very long time to play out.
Afghanistan is no different.
 
I am very interested to see how this next year will play out in Afghanistan. It is sounding like they are finally going to dump allot more resources into Afghanistan which is what we have been needing for years now. I foresee there being large scale decisive engagements happening on a weekly basis if not daily.

This could actually be a good thing, the taliban might become too aggressive. We could drop some more BCTs in there and mop up this offensive. Of course this could just be wishfull thinking, the US government and civilian population never make it that easy.
 
The prob down there (was only there during the USSR intrusion, so my impression might be outdated: Frankly, I cannnot imagine it has changed) is what we call corruption (and they call "bank of favours"):

You cannot become a policeman if you do not pay your elders. You cannot become a soldier if you do not pay, etc., everything goes with paying a chain upwards and complying with the favors you were credited at a certain point of your life. That is the culture of the tribes.

From whatever salary you get once arrived, you cannot pay them cash, so you have to

EITHER:

- go illegal and take the dough from the ppl you meet in the frame of your profession

OR

- install others that have to pay you for the favour (and your elders up the chain)

If you have no means to pay cash nor make the dough from others, you pay back favours, whatever they are (like allowing an IED placed in your AoR)...

No way to win this war in such environment.

Rattler
 
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The Taliban is feeling the heat and they're adapting as well. They've realized that their heavy handed strategy was actually losing the populace and the American hearts and minds approach was bearing fruit. This war isn't just hard for America, it's very tough on the enemy as well. So far they've been putting on a great poker face (something that's almost impossible to do if you have a free press) but the new "code of conducts" released by the Taliban which is the focus of much internal conflict among them is a good sign that they're being pushed to the limit as well.

Rattler, I am very familiar with the scenario that you present. But once the country is secured this too can be changed. Basically you have to allow the ones with the voices speaking out against the sort of corruption they have be heard. The voices must be internal.
But even then it'll take a whole generation to play out. But security and democracy are good places to start.
As for not being able to win... it's very likely that victory may not be possible.
 
It's too bad a billboard picture of how a country should be run with pics of gov't working to bring in $$ for the country n how that money trickles DOWN through the offices and helps the people...sort of plan couldn't be made available. :type: instead of this UP system they have. Are the NGO's and other aid , not helping with their efforts to educate the people too? :-?
 
I'm always really skeptical about grass roots programs.
I understand where the thought is coming from but the problem is at the grass roots level, you're filled with amateurs who can't deliver even if they mean well.
 
"The Stan" will be an ongoing affair for 20 years or more if we want to do it right.

Then again, I don´t agree with Adm Mullen.
Not deteriorating.
There are signs some H&M campaigns have been so successful the Taleban have been forced to change their tactics.
When you force your opponent to change his tactics you are gaining the initiative in the fight as most of you know.

Simply put, I think this is winable, but not in a conventional way.

As for the warlord/tribe system..Don´t knock it, it´s the only system they know how to operate.
Just because you wouldn´t want to live like that doesn´t mean it is a viable system for the locals.

//KJ.
 
True KJ.
We also need a paradigm change in that democracy or whatnot can come in many different forms. Also true, the enemy is really feeling the heat so the situation in A'stan may not really be deteriorating, rather the enemy might be showing signs of desperation which may be why there are so many allied casualties at this point.
 
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/bad-medicine.htm

Extremely readable report about ongoing ops around Pharmacy Road, including some impressive photos, as ex photographer and journalist I like Michael Yons combo aaproach to pointing out stuff and creating a colorful picture not only of the ops itself and it´s challenges, but also of the cultural and geographical background they take place in and at the same time painting the mindset of the differen nations soldiers involved.

Rattler
 
Who are our politicians to tell them how to run a country? They can't run America, what makes Afghanistan any better?
 
rattler said:
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/bad-medicine.htm

Extremely readable report about ongoing ops around Pharmacy Road, including some impressive photos, as ex photographer and journalist I like Michael Yons combo aaproach to pointing out stuff and creating a colorful picture not only of the ops itself and it´s challenges, but also of the cultural and geographical background they take place in and at the same time painting the mindset of the differen nations soldiers involved.

Rattler
Click to expand...

I will read it when I have a bit more time... right now I'm running back and forth...
That is an outstanding report from what I have heard.
 
if you do not have time, just the pix tell (as every good photographer should manage to have them do) an interesting story all by themselves.

Rattler
 
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I just want the war over. Man, the mineral resources in the west half are astounding!
 
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The resources are not enough to pay for this thing in it´s entirety.
AND the resources belong to Afghanistan..

Didn´t Michael Yon report from Iraq before?
I seem to remember reading something from him earlier, but I might be misstaken.
 
This might sound bad, but that dissappoints me. I was trained to deploy and because of my bases mission i'm not able to do that. BUT...

I'm also glad the threat level is going down, that means alot more people will be returning home to their families. I think although the mission their is a critical one, it's time to come home. After eight years how much more can we do for these people that don't want our help? I understand not all of them don't want help, but a country should be able to take care of its own, and with a new somewhat democratic system, they should be able to do that.
 
There's only one problem.
It's great that people get to come home, but in the future when American soldiers have to deploy overseas, their enemies will not fear them.
 
Wouldn't say that the threat level is going down.IED rates seem up from the intel I've seen. I agree with KJ it's gonna be a long haul op unless we want to do it halfass.
 
Yeah and if done half ass the next generation of American fighting men and women who have to set foot on a foreign soil will have it even harder.
 
Secure What? said:
This might sound bad, but that dissappoints me. I was trained to deploy and because of my bases mission i'm not able to do that. BUT...

I'm also glad the threat level is going down, that means alot more people will be returning home to their families. I think although the mission their is a critical one, it's time to come home. After eight years how much more can we do for these people that don't want our help? I understand not all of them don't want help, but a country should be able to take care of its own, and with a new somewhat democratic system, they should be able to do that.
Click to expand...


That is a crappy attitude and I will tell you why, but first I want to ask you a few questions.
Why are you not able to deploy?
No bases need to be protected in any hot zones?
I would have thought getting a slot at Bagram would be a breeze for someone with your MOS?

Why do you think the threat level is going down?
IED,s are up like a mofo.

Why do you think the average Afghani national doesn´t want the help of the western world?
Are you delerious enough to think anyone with cloth on their head are bad people?

I can tell you who the bad people in The Stan are.
It is the people who wants to pull the troops before the job is done.
It can be done, and it should be done.
We have all sacrificed too many lives and wounded friends doing the job right.
Pulling out before it´s done will be spitting on their memory.
Strangely enough it is always people sitting comfortably along way away who thinks "it´s time to come home" Or time "to leave it to the locals."

Newsflash, the little civilazation the Afghanis had were bombed back to the stone age during the offensive.
Allied forces and Taleban have collectively demolished the few good parts of the nation that existed.
The Police force was dismantled and the Army was a no show or loyal towards their former leadership. (The Taleban).

So your proposal is that we pull out the western troops and hand over the large part of The Stan currently controlled by allied forces to who exactly?
I can tell you who WILL take it over..And those are the very same people we started this war to get rid off.

Thus your suggestion has brought us back to a pre 2001 scenario and all the soldiers having lost their lives have done so needlesly.
I reckon you´d have a hard time selling that to people no matter how good your intentions might be.

//KJ.
 
the_13th_redneck said:
Yeah and if done half ass the next generation of American fighting men and women who have to set foot on a foreign soil will have it even harder.
Click to expand...

Problem is this. The public and goverment probably don't have the intestinal fortitude for a long haul op.
 
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