I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
So we are postponing or closing a lot right now. What are you guys thinking about the outbreak/pandemic of the corona virus.
COVID-19
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I am a little torn on this one.
On one hand if you are less than 60, fit and healthy it seems to be little more than a head cold but if you underlying health issues it could be lethal.
I think in many respects the media has blown it out of all proportion as its mortality rate is barely any different to the common influenza strains we just dont report influenza deaths on a daily basis.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The major concern I have about the COVID-19 is if it's mutate to a more lethal form and for every time a virus infects people the risk for mutations increases a lot.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
True, however, we are a long way past 1918 we have the potential to combat virus and bacteria in far shorter times.
I expect there will be vaccines for this one available shortly from the range of already existing medicines.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
We are better now with supporting medical care than during the Spanish Flu. But lacking resources to treat a lot of people with serious pneumonia. The novel corona virus (novel means new) the H1N1 virus back then was also a novel virus. The difference is now the elderly with underlying health issues and those with health issues getting severely ill and dies. The Spanish Flu killed mostly people between 20-40.
To get vaccines take times, and then beginning to produce it in quantities for the need. The flu virus, like the H1N1, H5N1, H5N5, H7N8 belongs to a different strain than the Corona virus that is related to the SARS and the MERS viruses
The mortality rate of the COVID-19 is getting higher, in Italy it is now around 8% and that is much higher than what the Spanish Flu had. (between 3-5%, hard to know when we don't know how many were infected) The lessons from the Spanish flu is the method to handle outbreaks. Quarantines worked well in San Francisco and they were able to flatter the curve in St. Louis, mainly because they reacted prior the arrival of the disease. We have other challenges today when people can travel much faster now than in 1918-1920.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
What I would like to see is a side by side comparison between those who have died throughout the northern hemispheres winter of influenza vs those who have died of COVID-19.
One of the things I suspect is driving the panic/anxiety is that we do not normally see influenza deaths reported by contrast every COVID-19 death has been reported.
I am not suggesting we should underestimate the virus as it is a killed under certain conditions but as it stands there are about 250,000 cases world wide with 15000 deaths, smoking has killed more this year so far.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The mortality rate for seasonal influenza varies from year to year due to the type A (H1N1, H3H2) viruses mutate slightly. The mortality rate is also suppressed by vaccinations. The mortality rate would be higher without the vaccination. The R0 (R-nought, the reproductive rate for the seasonal flu is about 1-2, while the same for the COVID-19 seems to 3-4. The outbreak of the COVID-19 is still going on and the mortality rate differs from country to country. The Italy and the Spain have a higher mortality rate than northern Europe, mostly due to how they live. Different generations live together in a way we don't anymore. However, the mortality rate is counted on all infected and all fatalities. If we count on age groups we get a much higher number for the elderly (65+) and barely measurably for those between 20-30 years old.
When a type A virus (type B and C, don't) mutate and getting a higher R0, the risk for a pandemic increases a lot. There is one type A, a bird flu virus (H5N1) that will be catastrophic when it mutates to a more lethal form. The mortality rate for this one is between 50-75%. For the moment it doesn't transmit easily between people
This COVID-19 is a warning to us all. I have warned about pandemics for years (I'm working in the emergency management) We world population have increased a lot during the 20th century and it is growing still, that increases the risk for pandemics. Our ability to travel from one continent to another in a few hours increases the risk a lot. The health care systems in all countries are prepared for a rapid increase of patients. We don't have stock piles of essential tools, gloves, face masks, ventilators etc etc. I hope we learn from this for the next time it might be a more lethal pathogen than the corona virus.
(source WHO, CDC, European CDC, and Swedish CDC)
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
It will be interesting to see the political consequences of COVID-19, especially what happens to the European Union. It might return to its original form and only being a trade union. EU failed during the refugee crisis and it failed badly now. Italy asked for help and didn't get any.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
No offense to Europe but outside of the northern European nation's (Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) Europe is a poorly managed economic mess so going back to the old Europe wouldn't help places like Italy, Spain and Greece.
Northern Europe would be far better off if it ditched the rest anyway.
Northern Europe would be far better off if it ditched the rest anyway.
Most conclusions and advises,even measures that are given risk to be flawed ,as no one knows the number of people who are infected by CV : we know only the revealed, confirmed number ( today 500000 cases and 22000 deaths ) but not the real number than can be a tenfold,and the paradox is that the more people are infected by the virus, the less is the virus lethal .
Other problem is that the measures who the media and the politicians are telling us will solve the crisis,are unlikely to do it (a vaccine will not solve the problem ,neither will do isolation ) and risk to worse the situation by collapsing the economy .
Last point : there is a big possibility that the virus will become seasonal as is the flu .
Other problem is that the measures who the media and the politicians are telling us will solve the crisis,are unlikely to do it (a vaccine will not solve the problem ,neither will do isolation ) and risk to worse the situation by collapsing the economy .
Last point : there is a big possibility that the virus will become seasonal as is the flu .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
What the majority of the governments are doing right now when they closing everything might work. This is a novel virus so nobody knows if we get immunity after being infected. Probably we get immunity, but what happens if we don't and it mutates again. It has mutated once already. The problems with using the herd immunity approach are, we don't know if that works and secondly, it will be much harder to protect the elderly and those in the risk groups if the majority of us get the virus. Thirdly, the COVID -19 has a mortality rate of 3%, it doesn't sound much, but apply 3% on the entire population in any given country. That's why the UK changed their approach toward COVID-19.
This seems to be our time to hear the bells.
Two points : old people are the first to die from a virus (CV/flu ) ,because they are very weak ,and isolation will not change this : in Belgium only a minority of old people live in retirement homes, but they constitute 25 % of the deaths .
Isolation is not the solution.
Neither is a vaccine .
About the 3% of infected people the media are telling us that die from infection by CV .
This is not true, not true at all : it is 3% of the revealed, the confirmed cases,and these are only a small part of the real number .
The confirmed cases in Belgium are some 8000 with 289 deaths, this is between 3/4 % of the confirmed cases .
But professor van Ranst , a CV expert, said that it was very possible that 1 million people were infected in Belgium ,the paradox is that the more people are infected , the lower the mortality .
289 deaths on 1 million infections is a mortality of 0,0025 %. Thus meaningless .
Two years ago, the official number of flu infections in the US was 16 million ( 4,5% of the population ) with 33000 deaths ( 1 on 500 cases and 1 on 10000 of the population) ,but the CDC assumes that there were an other 19 million unrecorded flu infections ( IMO a too low figure )which means a total of 35 million cases ( 10% of the population ,but still with 33000 deaths ,who constitute a mortality not of 1 on 500 but of 1 on 1000 only .
The media are panic mongers ( bad news sells, good news does not sell ).
If the confirmed flu cases are only a minority of the total , we can rightly assume that it is the same for the COVID 19 virus .And in both cases, the confirmed cases are the worst,and the hidden ones are the less dangerous .
Most people do never know that they have the flu, and most people do not know that they have the Coronavirus .
Isolation is not the solution.
Neither is a vaccine .
About the 3% of infected people the media are telling us that die from infection by CV .
This is not true, not true at all : it is 3% of the revealed, the confirmed cases,and these are only a small part of the real number .
The confirmed cases in Belgium are some 8000 with 289 deaths, this is between 3/4 % of the confirmed cases .
But professor van Ranst , a CV expert, said that it was very possible that 1 million people were infected in Belgium ,the paradox is that the more people are infected , the lower the mortality .
289 deaths on 1 million infections is a mortality of 0,0025 %. Thus meaningless .
Two years ago, the official number of flu infections in the US was 16 million ( 4,5% of the population ) with 33000 deaths ( 1 on 500 cases and 1 on 10000 of the population) ,but the CDC assumes that there were an other 19 million unrecorded flu infections ( IMO a too low figure )which means a total of 35 million cases ( 10% of the population ,but still with 33000 deaths ,who constitute a mortality not of 1 on 500 but of 1 on 1000 only .
The media are panic mongers ( bad news sells, good news does not sell ).
If the confirmed flu cases are only a minority of the total , we can rightly assume that it is the same for the COVID 19 virus .And in both cases, the confirmed cases are the worst,and the hidden ones are the less dangerous .
Most people do never know that they have the flu, and most people do not know that they have the Coronavirus .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
There is a difference between the seasonal flu, usually caused by the A and B type influenza viruses. The vaccination works to lower the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, but flu vaccine doesn't work on the corona strain. This virus as an R-nought higher than the seasonal flu, it is more contagious than SARS and MERS, but those two has a lower R-nought, but a higher mortality rate. We can speculate how many have been infected, but before we get any anti-body test and testing a lot of people we don't know how many who have been infected. Use the numbers confirmed and leave the speculation to amateurs
Vaccinations are working for measles with an R-nought between 14-18, it worked for smallpox, which is now eradicated as a natural occurring disease. Polio is another disease that has been almost eradicated by a huge vaccination program. So saying vaccination doesn't work is wrong. We will get a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2? Probably not this year, if we are lucky early next year, but most likely in the mid 2021
I did not say that vaccination does not work, I said that vaccination is not the solution, it can help, but in very restricted ways, because you need at least 2 vaccines.
You need one to prevent being infected,and the efficiency of it will be very low,as people will continue to be infected.
You need also one that prevents you to infect some one else,and here also ,the result will be limited .
You need also one that will stop the infection of becoming serious .
Every year there is a new flu vaccine ( based on the flu of the year before) and most people do not get the vaccine,but also do not get the flu .And, there is always the danger that the new flu is different from the old one and that thus the vaccine does not help .In such a case, the results will be very bad. The last flu infected 33 millions of Americans ,and 33000 died .( There are no stats indicating what was the ratio of those with a vaccine that were infected/died against those who were not vaccinated ) .If next winter the flu will mutate, the vaccine will protect no one .
It is the same for Covid 19 : it is possible that it will become seasonal and if it mutates , the antiCoronavirus vaccine will be worthless .
A vaccine does not protect ( very limitedly ) against THE flu, but against one type of flu .
A anti CV vaccine will not protect against Covid 19, but against a type of Covid 19 .
It is the same for the smallpox : some 300 million people died in the 20th century because of the smallpox, but if smallpox mutates, millions will die again .
You need one to prevent being infected,and the efficiency of it will be very low,as people will continue to be infected.
You need also one that prevents you to infect some one else,and here also ,the result will be limited .
You need also one that will stop the infection of becoming serious .
Every year there is a new flu vaccine ( based on the flu of the year before) and most people do not get the vaccine,but also do not get the flu .And, there is always the danger that the new flu is different from the old one and that thus the vaccine does not help .In such a case, the results will be very bad. The last flu infected 33 millions of Americans ,and 33000 died .( There are no stats indicating what was the ratio of those with a vaccine that were infected/died against those who were not vaccinated ) .If next winter the flu will mutate, the vaccine will protect no one .
It is the same for Covid 19 : it is possible that it will become seasonal and if it mutates , the antiCoronavirus vaccine will be worthless .
A vaccine does not protect ( very limitedly ) against THE flu, but against one type of flu .
A anti CV vaccine will not protect against Covid 19, but against a type of Covid 19 .
It is the same for the smallpox : some 300 million people died in the 20th century because of the smallpox, but if smallpox mutates, millions will die again .
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These are the last figures
Total number of CV cases : 597000
Deaths : 27000 ( 4 % of the total )
Recovered :133000 (ratio deaths-recovered : 1/5 )
Serious cases : 23000
Mild Cases : 413000 ( ratio serious- mild 1-18 )
And this is only the known cases, unknown cases are much more mild.
Without a vaccine ,you have 5 times more chances to recover than to die, and 18 times more chances to have a mild form than to become seriously ill .
Will a vaccine ( one of several that are needed ) have as result that no one will die? That no one will become seriously ill ?
Of course not .
Most people who die without vaccine,will also die with vaccine,because most people survive without a vaccine.
Most people who become seriously ill without vaccine,will also become seriously ill with vaccine ,because most people do not become seriously ill without a vaccine .
I am convinced that it is the same for the flu .60 and 50 years ago, millions died from the Hongkong flu and the Asiatic flu .Not because there was no vaccine .
Total number of CV cases : 597000
Deaths : 27000 ( 4 % of the total )
Recovered :133000 (ratio deaths-recovered : 1/5 )
Serious cases : 23000
Mild Cases : 413000 ( ratio serious- mild 1-18 )
And this is only the known cases, unknown cases are much more mild.
Without a vaccine ,you have 5 times more chances to recover than to die, and 18 times more chances to have a mild form than to become seriously ill .
Will a vaccine ( one of several that are needed ) have as result that no one will die? That no one will become seriously ill ?
Of course not .
Most people who die without vaccine,will also die with vaccine,because most people survive without a vaccine.
Most people who become seriously ill without vaccine,will also become seriously ill with vaccine ,because most people do not become seriously ill without a vaccine .
I am convinced that it is the same for the flu .60 and 50 years ago, millions died from the Hongkong flu and the Asiatic flu .Not because there was no vaccine .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
There are so many things wrong with your two posts. First of all, a vaccine reduce to risk for getting the seasonal flu between 40-60% The type A H1N1 and B flu viruses mutate and there is always a risk for the vaccine for the next year vaccine doesn't match the virus causing the seasonal flu. The vaccination in the US (you like to use the US as a reference) reduced the risk for ICU treatment for adults with 82% (2012-2015)
If you get ill, you don't get a vaccine, you get an anti-viral drug. There are four different type of anti-viral drugs, Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab, and Xofluza.
There are also a difference between the flu viruses causing major epidemics and pandemics and the type A and B viruses causing the seasonal flu. The pandemics you are mentioning were caused by flu virus that mutated more than the seasonal variations. The mutation can also occur when a virus make a spill-over from animals, this process is called zoonosis. About 60% of all diseases are zoonotic. The virus emerging from a process like this is a novel virus and our immune system doesn't recognize it. One process can be when a type A virus and let say a bird virus exchange genes and became more contagious. It happened with the Spanish Flu (the worst of them all), the Asian Flu, and the Hong Kong Flu. It is still a type A virus, but different from all other flu viruses.
Smallpox, the last person getting it was in 1977 and there are no reported cases after it. WHO was successful to get rid of it. Smallpox virus (virola virus) exist still in laboratories when it is considered to be a biological weapon. Anthrax and plague are also considered to be B-weapons. The two latter still occur naturally in the world, but they are treatable if the infected get treatment pretty fast. Ebola and Marburg (filo-viruses) have a potential for being weapons.
If you get ill, you don't get a vaccine, you get an anti-viral drug. There are four different type of anti-viral drugs, Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab, and Xofluza.
There are also a difference between the flu viruses causing major epidemics and pandemics and the type A and B viruses causing the seasonal flu. The pandemics you are mentioning were caused by flu virus that mutated more than the seasonal variations. The mutation can also occur when a virus make a spill-over from animals, this process is called zoonosis. About 60% of all diseases are zoonotic. The virus emerging from a process like this is a novel virus and our immune system doesn't recognize it. One process can be when a type A virus and let say a bird virus exchange genes and became more contagious. It happened with the Spanish Flu (the worst of them all), the Asian Flu, and the Hong Kong Flu. It is still a type A virus, but different from all other flu viruses.
Smallpox, the last person getting it was in 1977 and there are no reported cases after it. WHO was successful to get rid of it. Smallpox virus (virola virus) exist still in laboratories when it is considered to be a biological weapon. Anthrax and plague are also considered to be B-weapons. The two latter still occur naturally in the world, but they are treatable if the infected get treatment pretty fast. Ebola and Marburg (filo-viruses) have a potential for being weapons.
Following a University of Oxford Study, 25 million British citizens were infected by CV and this some 3 weeks ago , today the outcome is 2500 deaths = 1 on 10000 infected people .
All we hear from the media is doom conclusions .:bang:
Merkel said that some 70 % of the Germans were/would be infected(56 million people );the outcome is 1100 deaths = 1 on 54000 infected persons .
All we hear from the media are doom scenarios .:bang:
The greatest danger is not CV, but PV = the panic virus created by the media and which is destroying our economy and society .
Last point : for 100 deaths there are still 400 recovered .
But,as we can expect, the media are hiding this .
All we hear from the media is doom conclusions .:bang:
Merkel said that some 70 % of the Germans were/would be infected(56 million people );the outcome is 1100 deaths = 1 on 54000 infected persons .
All we hear from the media are doom scenarios .:bang:
The greatest danger is not CV, but PV = the panic virus created by the media and which is destroying our economy and society .
Last point : for 100 deaths there are still 400 recovered .
But,as we can expect, the media are hiding this .
About the anti flu vaccinations : most old people get them , most younger people do not get them.The reason is for the old people NOT that without the vaccine they would more likely be sick, but if they are sick ,they have a bigger risk to die, because they are weak and have no longer a sufficient resistance .For those younger than 65 it is the opposite : they have sufficient resistance and most can do without the vaccine .
For children : they must build their antibodies and a vaccine would hinder them .
That's why the sentence that the vaccine is reducing the risk of being ill ( not dying !) is senseless : there is no proof that the vaccine/no vaccine is influencing the number of sick people ( not infected people as we all are infected with the flu virus ):
33 million Americans became sick by the 2018-2019 flu ( in different levels ) : let's assume that 50 % of the population was vaccinated (165 million )
what would be the result if no one was vaccinated ? would the number of sick go up ?
if 50% of the sick was vaccinated, that would mean that you had the same chance to become sick with or without vaccine .
And if the vaccine was that good , why was not everyone vaccinated ?
Besides : every year there is 50 % chance that the vaccine will not work, as he is based on the last flu,and as the next flu can always differ from the last flu .
The truth is that people who die from the flu and who have no vaccine would mainly also die from the flu if they had a vaccine : someone of 90 who is ill and weak and dies without vaccine would also die with vaccine .And some one of 40 who is healthy and strong and survives the flu with a vaccine would also survive the flu without a vaccine .